US economy to feel Katrina's force

The aftereffects of Hurricane Katrina will ripple through the economy for months to come as prices rise for goods ranging from plywood to fresh tuna and coffee.

''Maybe for the first time, a hurricane in one part of the country will have a big impact on other parts of the country a thousand miles away," said David Ross, a supply-chain specialist at Intentia Americas Inc.

''To have the port of New Orleans closed will dramatically hurt the middle part of the country, and that will spill over onto the coasts."

Damage to coffee warehouses and production facilities in Louisiana boosted Arabica coffee future prices another 4 percent yesterday on the New York Board of Trade. Casualties to the Gulf fishing fleet could lead to winter shortages of tuna and swordfish. At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, lumber prices rose 7 percent on reports that the hurricane destroyed many sawmills on the Gulf Coast. Also driving up prices is speculation that homeowners in Louisiana and Mississippi will need more wood to rebuild what was devastated.

For homeowners outside the affected area, Hurricane Katrina provided unexpected relief. According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates fell to their lowest point since mid-July. Lenders believe the threat of an economic slowdown caused by the hurricane will keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates.

One other positive consumer note: beef prices are likely to come down, as investors yesterday bet that high gasoline prices will lead to consumer cutbacks in other discretionary spending, such as meals at restaurants. On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, cattle futures for October delivery fell 1.5 percent to their lowest point in two weeks. Meanwhile, higher gas prices will add to the expense of shipping goods, an expense many merchants will pass along to consumers. While local residents will not be immune to price increases, shortages are less likely. A small percentage of New England goods moves through New Orleans; instead, most goods arrive by water through the ports of Boston or New York or by rail or highway.

Grain shipments languishing on the Mississippi River since Saturday stayed put yesterday, unable to exit through New Orleans, where much of the country's grain exports depart for overseas markets. While other ports such as Houston and Tampa say they can handle what comes in, New Orleans is critical to what goes out, industry specialists said.

New Orleans is different from many other ports, noted M. Eric Johnson, a professor who teaches supply-chain management at Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth.

''Any port can handle a shipment of containers," he said.

But many port facilities in New Orleans were designed for ''raw materials such as chemicals and scrap metal, and the barge traffic is significant," he said. Not all of those cargoes can easily be diverted to other ports that lack the facilities to handle them.

Meanwhile, many local businesses continued to monitor the impact of the hurricane.

At Cape Cod Lumber Co. in Abington, president Harvey Hurvitz noted that the price of plywood has jumped by about 10 percent in recent days.

''There's a short-term squeeze," he said. ''If a supplier had to purchase materials in the next few weeks, you could have a problem. People are grabbing it up out of fear of not being able to get anything later on."

Outlining a worst-case scenario, president Roger Berkowitz of the Legal Sea Foods restaurant chain said local consumers could see winter scarcities of tuna and swordfish, which swim south for the winter.

Noting the devastation the hurricane inflicted on the Gulf fishing fleet, Berkowitz said, ''There may not be boats to harvest them."

Retailing at $18.99 a pound, fresh tuna prices are already about $4 higher than normal, added David Pilat, seafood director for the Northeast region of the Whole Foods Market grocery chain.

At New England Coffee Co. in Malden, president Jim Kaloyanides is closely monitoring the upward rise of coffee future prices. The three big coffee ports in this part of the country are New Orleans, Miami, and New York, he said.

''All the coffee we buy is shipped into New York," he said. ''I don't see any disruption in our supply chain. What this will do is keep prices high."

Chris Reidy can be reached at reidy@globe.com. Material from Globe wire services was used in this report.