Boom or bust, network tracks Boston's real estate

Founded in 1987, Listing Information Network began tracking the downtown real estate market during the New England boom and bust of the 1980s. Link's owner and president, Debra Taylor Blair, recently spoke with Boston Globe reporter Kimberly Blanton.

Q: Your third-quarter report showed signs of slower condo sales after a record 2004. Why?

A: In 2005, we're in a market that is stabilizing and softening. In 2004 prices went up so fast that the majority of first-time homebuyers were priced out, and now that there's more inventory, asking prices are coming down. The market will, as asking prices come down, become more affordable.

Q: Why the change?

A: With interest rates nudging up, hints of inflation, and, in my opinion, somewhat of a scare going on with the economists predicting the real estate bubble's going to burst, it's creating a market that's definitely softening. Homeowners have a tendency to want to sell in advance of a softening market, causing a spike in inventory.

Q: Will condo sale prices decline?

A: Selling prices are holding strong. That's a given. However I don't think that people are going to be making top-dollar offers as in 2004. Buyers know there's more inventory and sellers are getting nervous so sellers are more likely to accept a lower-priced offer. They don't have as many offers as they were getting before.

Q: Where is the condo market weakest?

A: Properties that are overpriced just aren't selling across the board. Anything that's well priced, especially between $700,000 and $1.2 million, is selling really well. That's where you have the most people looking. When you get between $1.5 million and $3 million, if it's not a trophy property, that market isn't doing as well either, and you tend to have sellers who have overpriced their properties. The ultra-luxury market is doing quite well. There isn't a lot to choose from so anything that's perfect gets snapped up.

Q: Which neighborhoods are easiest to sell?

A: Back Bay, which still has limited inventory, is strong. Beacon Hill is strong and the South End is strong. Beacon Hill, with the Cambridge Street expansion and the new Whole Foods and . . . proximity to downtown is still desirable. The South End is like the new Back Bay.

Q: Is the current, unprecedented condo-building boom cause for concern?

A: Not even close. Boston is experiencing a major urban renaissance that I think will go on for at least the next 10 years. The city of Boston continues to attract the baby boomers from the suburbs . . . [and] affluent people who want an urban lifestyle. When the right projects are built, there's more than enough buyers for properties. With this building boom, it's inventory the city really needs. Inventory is up but if you look at the sales rate of the new construction properties, it is outpacing the traditional housing stock.

Q: Prediction for 2006?

A: The market's going to continue to adjust, with selling prices coming down slightly, less than 5 percent. It's a moderating market. But if interest rates stay relatively low, sales prices may just stay where they are. A sharp spike in rates will lead to reductions in selling prices.

Q: Tell us how you founded Link.

A: I was a senior at Northeastern, majoring in economics and graduated in 1987 and simultaneously started my company. I had worked my way through school doing the co-op [student-employment] program. After co-oping for five years in real estate offices as an administrative assistant, the thought of a low-paying entry-level job was not appealing. I would see all the time brokers would spend going through the newspaper circling ads with a red pen. That gave me the idea to start Link.