Suburbs flush with homes for sale

A decline in house sales last fall has left a January glut of unsold properties in suburban Boston as the big spring selling season approaches, according to data released yesterday.

The number of single-family homes for sale jumped 54 percent to 4,077 as of Friday, compared with a year earlier, said MLS Property Information Network of Shrewsbury. The data include all the suburbs surrounding Boston, extending out to Route 128; the city of Boston was excluded.

Some real estate agents expect this large supply of housing to be compounded by new sellers entering the market for the first time in February and March, which typically begins the busiest season for sales.

''We are going to be overstocked, because we have a lot more coming," said Gil Campos, an agent for Re/Max Real Estate Center in Foxborough.

Real estate agents are split over what the sizable jump in inventory will do to buyers and sellers -- and the impact it will have on sales and prices. Campos is banking on a lowering of price expectations among buyers and sellers, who have witnessed years of rapidly rising prices amid a feeling housing supply was limited. But now prices have softened, he said, and if sellers drop asking prices to more realistic levels, buyers are poised to move in.

''Last year was a real awakening," he said. Now, ''buyers and sellers know the market's changed. Last year, nobody knew."

But Bill Wendel, a broker who represents only buyers as owner of Real Estate Cafe in Cambridge, does not see buyers coming out of the woodwork to snap up bargains and shrink bloated inventories. Many first-time buyers or renters have indicated they will continue to watch the market, hoping prices fall further, he said.

Many sellers reduced their asking prices sharply at the end of last year to sell their homes. Yet, the median price of single-family homes sold in November, $354,000, was still slightly higher than a year earlier, according to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors. From January through November, statewide home sales were about 3 percent below 2004 sales.

There are various explanations for the sharp run-up in the number of January properties for sale. For one, unsold houses are sitting longer. Homes currently for sale have been on the market an average of 93 days, up from 84 days a year ago. But agents also said the surge in inventories was based on unusually low inventories in early 2005, when the market was still booming.

Wendel in Cambridge predicted a tough spring for sellers. In April, May, and June, there is typically a surge of new listings that come on the market, and he expects more this year because so many listings expired unsold. Those do not currently appear as active listings and will return to the listings in coming weeks or months, he said.

''One thing I would tell buyers is, do not jump too early. The summer months, there will be a lot of discouraged sellers and a softening of prices," he said.

David Drinkwater of Grand Gables Realty Group in Scituate said his clients are more realistic about pricing a house they want to sell. Buyers ''are going to be able to capitalize on well-priced properties," he said.

And with the Patriots now eliminated from the playoffs -- they lost Saturday night to the Denver Broncos -- buyers can begin their spring searches.

''You don't have the competition on weekends for football parties," he said.

Kimberly Blanton can be reached at blanton@globe.com.