New England may see exodus of young talent, study warns

New England states will face a shortage of educated young workers if demographic trends continue, according to a study to be released today, a shift that could exacerbate business leaders' worries about the region's workforce.

The report, by scholars at the universities of Massachusetts and Connecticut, finds that each of those states stands to lose tens of thousands of young workers holding at least a bachelor's degree by 2020, a period when the same critical workforce will grow in other regions.

``This new finding should heighten everyone's concerns about the region's long-term economic vitality," concludes the report, which was sponsored by the Nellie Mae Education Foundation, a Quincy philanthropy that promotes access to colleges and universities.

Moreover, the working-age populations of both states, plus those of Maine and Rhode Island, will shrink over the same period, the report found, in contrast to the growth expected in Sun Belt and Western states. Businesses will be particularly anxious about the lower numbers of skilled workers, said study co author Stephen Coelen of the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis in Storrs.

``You can look at this any way you want to and you'll find we have lost population, which is going to make it harder to be competitive," Coelen said in an interview yesterday. ``We've constantly been talking about this trend since the 1990s, but we have never had data that show we're on the precipice as much as we're seeing this now."

The report comes as some of the largest companies with headquarters in Massachusetts, such as mutual-fund giant Fidelity Investments and data-storage maker EMC Corp., increasingly are adding employees in other states and countries, amid worries they have tapped out the workforce in a state that census data show is growing slowly.

Just last week, Fidelity said it would locate a call center in Jacksonville, Fla., that would eventually employ as many as 1,200 people, a decision the company said was made on factors including access to that region's talent pool.

Rick Lord, chief executive of Associated Industries of Massachusetts, a trade group that has reviewed the findings, said they are likely to worry many executives already concerned by the state's relatively slow growth.

``One thing we pride ourselves on in New England is that we have this educated and talented workforce that helps us compete in what is otherwise a very high-cost area," he said. Lord said he supports the report's recommendations to improve connections between businesses and state universities, which he said lag efforts in states such as North Carolina that compete with Massachusetts for jobs.

The report predicts that the percentage of young workers in Massachusetts who have graduated from college will fall to less than 40 percent of all workers in that age range by 2020, from 43 percent in 1993, when researchers began tracking the data. In Connecticut, the same group will fall to 30 percent from 34 percent.

A major cause for the declines is a lack of jobs for young workers once they graduate. ``We undervalue that infusion of the labor force. We don't encourage it to stay here," Coelen said. Also, minorities with less education will make up a rising share of the population in Massachusetts and elsewhere.

The report found some positive trends, too. For one, higher education will continue to be a major draw for young people to move to New England.

Also, the report forecasts rising educational participation rates among minority populations in New England, the result of current efforts to expand educational opportunities.

Ranch Kimball, Massachusetts secretary of economic development, and other officials said they haven't seen all the report's data but argued the state has already begun to act on some of the report's recommendations, such as to improve ties between colleges and businesses.

``Ultimately, young people are going to go or stay where there are good jobs, and firms going to grow or stay where there are good people," Kimball said.

Ross Kerber can be reached at kerber@globe.com.