Signs of solidity seen for '07 housing sales

Richard Loughlin

Last month Richard Loughlin became the 2007 chairman of the Greater Boston Real Estate Board, an organization of real estate professionals. Loughlin, 60, who is also president of the New England region for Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, spoke with Globe reporter Kimberly Blanton .

Q. Why is the downtown market doing better than the suburbs?

A. Condo sales have really been phenomenal in the past 90 to 100 days in the city of Boston. It's been driven by the financial services market and by professionals purchasing condos in many different price ranges. As I've looked at numbers, I've seen a definite difference between Boston and the cities around Boston, where markets are driven more by single-family sales.

Q. What do you predict for 2007?

A. Any predictions for 2007 probably start by saying 2005 was a pinnacle year; 2006 was a correction year. Many experts do not know where the market will go in 2007, but we've had the transition market in 2006 and most believe we'll have a very solid year.

We've certainly cleaned up a lot of inventory, and levels are down significantly from 2006. If interest rates remain stable, which everybody thinks they will -- around 6 percent -- we should have a solid real estate market.

Q. What about the all-important spring market, which is around the corner?

A. The first couple of weeks are always slow in January coming off the holiday season. Now that some numbers have come in for January, we see property sales under agreement were up a little more than 7 percent for single-families in the first five weeks of the year, and condominiums are right behind, at about 5.5 percent.

Inventory has dropped -- it is much more stable than a year ago. We are running about seven months of inventory now, whereas a year ago we were at about 15 months of supply. Those of us in the industry are quite optimistic about a very solid spring market.

Q. What advice would you give to sellers , and what advice would you give buyers in this market?

A. Seller, price it right. It's all about price. Buyer, do not wait and get caught in the squeeze. If interest rates start to rise or inventory starts to drop, you don't want to get caught.

Q. Has the Boston-area housing market hit bottom?

A. It's a very tough prediction. The experts have various opinions. But if interest rates remain stable, I believe we've moved out of the modest market correction of 2006, and we've been in a stabilized market for the past three or four months. If that indicates we're near the bottom, I believe we are.

Q. What are the hot markets of the future?

A. Consumers are attracted to markets according to their price range, the location they want to live in, and the value they perceive such as schools and amenities. We have so many great communities around Boston, the consumer has a range of choices.

If I were to pick some neighborhoods, it's where the smart growth opportunities exist, along the T lines. That's a great housing strategy.

Q. What advice would you give Deval Patrick, who wants to make the state more business-friendly by increasing the supply of affordable housing as a way to help broaden the labor pool for companies to draw from?

A. We need to develop more entry-level housing. To do that, we obviously need the cooperation of local communities. We need to analyze local bylaws and to continue to fund and support state initiatives that encourage smart-growth development and school subsidies to allow that.

We also need to speed up the judicial process on zoning appeals, and housing advocates along with business leaders need to continue to find creative solutions to this problem, because it's the pressing problem in the housing industry.

Q. Where do you live and how many homes do you own?
A. I live in Concord, and I've lived there my whole life. I'm a native, and there aren't many left in towns like Concord. I've owned two homes in Concord; the last I built in 1988, and I still live there. I share a second home in Rye Beach, N.H., with family.