Has the US entered a recession? Economists say it will take months to know for sure.
A recession is popularly defined as two consecutive quarters, or six months, of negative economic growth as measured by gross domestic product, the nation's total output of goods and services. But economists use a broader definition.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, a Cambridge group of academic economists that officially dates US recessions, defines recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."
Since recessions by definition last several months, it's difficult to pinpoint their beginnings until they are well along. The National Bureau of Economic Research didn't determine the beginning of the last recession, March 2001, until November of that year.
Still, economists say, signs such as rising unemployment signal a recession is underway. The jobless rate rose 1.4 points between March and the end of 2001, for example. A three-tenths of a point jump in the unemployment rate in December sparked recent recession fears.
"If you, your neighbor, or somebody you know loses their job," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight of Waltham, "then we're probably in a recession."
ROBERT GAVIN
