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Inflation threat moves up on Fed chief's worry list

Bernanke suggests rate cuts may be over

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Associated Press / June 4, 2008

WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has moved inflation up on his list of worries, suggesting more pointedly than ever that the time for cutting interest rates is over in view of soaring oil and commodity prices and a weakened dollar.

Although the country's economic growth - bruised by housing, credit, and financial debacles - is still fragile, Bernanke yesterday expressed hope for some improvement in the second half of this year.

At the same time, he sounded a notably louder warning against inflation threats. To this end, he raised his biggest public concern to date about the slide in the US dollar, saying it has contributed to an "unwelcome rise" in inflation.

The Fed chief's fresh assessment - delivered via satellite to an international monetary conference in Spain - appeared to mark a subtle shift in Bernanke's views about economic risks.

Despite the rising concerns about inflation, Bernanke signaled the Fed is inclined to leave rates where they are. Boosting them could further weaken the economy's delicate state.

However, some analysts said Bernanke might be taking a baby step toward laying the foundation for an eventual rise in rates - possibly this year or early next year - if inflation were to flash signs of getting dangerously out of hand.

To help brace the economy, the Fed dropped rates in late April to 2 percent, a nearly four-year low, continuing a rate-cutting campaign that started last September. "For now policy seems well positioned to promote moderate growth and price stability over time," Bernanke said.

Many economists believe the Fed will hold rates steady at its next meeting, June 24-25, and probably through much, if not all, of this year. However, some believe that inflation could flare up and force the Fed to begin boosting rates this year or next.

The Fed's juggling act has gotten harder. It is trying to right a wobbly economy without aggravating inflation.

The Fed's aggressive rate-cutting campaign has contributed to a lower value of the US dollar. That, in turn, has contributed to increases in the price of imported goods and in consumer prices. "We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar for inflation and inflation expectations," Bernanke said, in a relatively rare public discussion of the dollar.

Bernanke reiterated the Fed's hope for a pickup in growth in the second half of this year and into 2009.

Despite the nation's economic woes, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said some improvement may come in the second half of this year.

HOPEFUL FOR A TURNAROUND

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