Analysts divided on direction of oil prices

NEW YORK - Crude oil prices may rise next week on forecasts that Hurricane Gustav will hit production rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

Eleven of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 38 percent, said prices will increase through Friday. Nine respondents, or 31 percent, said oil will decline, and nine said prices will be little changed. Last week, 55 percent expected futures to increase.

Gustav regained hurricane strength yesterday and tropical storm Hanna formed northeast of the Bahamas Thursday, the National Hurricane center said yesterday.

"We have Gustav headed toward the US and right behind us there is Hanna," said Peter Beutel, president of energy consultant Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Conn. "At some point one of these is bound to hit."

The Gulf of Mexico is home to 26 percent of US oil output and 14 percent of US gas production. In 2005 Hurricane Katrina closed 95 percent of offshore output there.

Crude oil for November delivery fell 13 cents to $115.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have dropped 22 percent since hitting $147.27 on July 11.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 49 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.