Retailers suffer a dreary November

But Wal-Mart, BJ's sales gain

Natick's BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. reported a 4.1 percent increase in same-store sales in November on higher demand for food and other consumable products. (Rose Lincoln for the Boston Globe/File 2008)

NEW YORK - Retailers who suffered through a miserable November - despite a surge in sales the day after Thanksgiving - are worried that the usual lull between the holiday weekend and the final days before Christmas could be dangerously quiet this year.

With financially squeezed shoppers who are holding out for even better deals or are simply already done, retailers who are already offering deep discounts will likely be forced to be even more aggressive as they lurch through a season which may be the weakest in at least 30 years.

Worries about the holiday season rose yesterday after many retailers - with Wal-Mart and BJ's Wholesale Club the exceptions - reported November sales so dismal it was the industry's worst month since at least 1969. The malaise cut across all sectors as shoppers worried about layoffs and shrinking retirement funds focused on necessities.

"It's an awful beginning to the holiday season," said Michael P. Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers. "This is going to be a difficult holiday season for most retailers. There are going to be more bankruptcies." He predicted that the retrenchment in spending will linger for at least another six months.

Based on conversations with retailers, this week's sales have been slower than expected, said Janet Hoffman, managing partner of the North American retail practice of Accenture. And with five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, retailers are under more pressure to make every day count.

In recent years, shoppers have been increasingly delaying their holiday shopping to the final days before Christmas for better bargains, but analysts say they believe this year people just can't afford to spend more. C. Britt Beemer, the chairman of America's Research Group, notes a higher percentage of shoppers he's surveyed had completed their holiday buying on Friday compared with a year ago.

"If retailers are not super aggressive with discounts, stores will be retail museums," said Beemer, who expects the lull will be more pronounced this year.

Worries about the economy have helped Wal-Mart, which reported a 3.4 percent gain in same-store sales, surpassing the 2.1 percent increase that analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected. The results excluded sales from fuel.

Natick-based BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. reported a 4.1 percent increase in same-store sales on higher demand for food and other consumable products.

TJX Cos., based in Framingham, said same-store sales were down a worse-than-expected 12 percent last month, as the stronger dollar dampened international sales. Costco Wholesale Corp. reported a bigger-than-expected 5 percent drop in same-store sales. Target Corp., which has been stumbling as its merchandise focuses more on nonessentials like trendy clothes, reported a 10.4 percent drop.

Sales data from Thanksgiving weekend showed a buying binge on Friday, but shoppers retreated the rest of the weekend. And even at stores on Friday, people focused on bargains and on small-ticket purchases as they slash their holiday budgets.

Web retailers, which have seen their sales slow in the deteriorating economy, posted a 15 percent sales gain for the Monday after Thanksgiving - the unofficial start for cyber shopping, according to comScore Inc., an Internet research company. But that gain was fueled by a 22 percent rise in the number of buyers, who spent on average 5 percent less compared with a year ago.