Mood’s brighter, but Fed may still extend stop-gaps

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues opened a two-day meeting yesterday. They will sift through economic data and anecdotal information about how businesses and consumers are faring. So far, many barometers suggest the worst recession since World War II is ending and that the economy has started to grow again, or will soon.

Still, the Fed has warned that recoveries after financial crises tend to be slow.

And there are risks lurking.

While unemployment declined to 9.4 percent in July, the Fed says it’s likely to top 10 percent this year because companies won’t be in a rush to hire. That could restrain the recovery if it crimps consumer spending.

Another danger comes from the troubled commercial real market, where defaults on loans are rising. That’s a strain on banks holding such loans. The increasing risk is making lenders ever more stingy about new commercial real estate loans or refinancing existing ones. Against that backdrop, the Fed is all but certain to hold a key bank lending rate at a record low near zero when its meeting ends today. The central bank also is apt to renew a pledge to hold that rate there for an “extended period.’’

Economists predict the Fed will leave its target range for its banking lending rate between zero and 0.25 percent through the rest of this year. The rationale: super-low-cost lending will spur Americans to spend more, which would support the economy.

If the Fed holds its key rate steady, commercial banks’ prime lending rate, used to peg rates on home equity loans, certain credit cards, and other consumer loans, would stay around 3.25 percent, the lowest in decades.

There have been signs the economy is on the mend. Factory activity is improving. Home sales are starting to pick up, although much of the activity involves people snapping up bargain-priced foreclosed properties. Companies are cutting fewer workers.

Some financial stresses are easing, but lending is not flowing normally and financial markets aren’t back to full throttle.

Many analysts believe the economy -which logged a mild contraction in the second quarter after a dizzying free-fall in the prior six months - is growing now. That makes it more likely the Fed will consider whether some rescue programs should continue, but any decisions might not come this week.

One such program, aimed at driving down interest rates on mortgages and other consumer debt, involves buying US Treasurys. The central bank is on track to buy $300 billion worth of Treasury bonds by the fall; it has bought $253 billion so far.

“I think they’ll let it expire. It seems the mood turned against Treasury purchases in the last couple of months, and there’s been some skepticism whether it has worked in bringing rates down,’’ said Michael Feroli, at JPMorgan Economics. There’s also been concern the program makes the Fed look like it is printing money to pay for Uncle Sam’s exploding deficits.

The Fed isn’t expected to launch new efforts or change an existing program to push down mortgage rates. In that venture, the Fed is on track to buy $1.25 trillion worth of securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Inflation, meanwhile, is expected to stay low.