Mass. jobless rate drops to 8.8%

The state’s jobless rate slipped to 8.8 percent, following a sharp drop in October, when it plunged nearly a half-point to 8.9 percent, the state Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development reported yesterday. The national unemployment rate fell to 10 percent in November from 10.2 percent in October.

The state’s job market, however, remains weak. Massachusetts employers sliced payrolls by another 1,700 jobs in November, with the heaviest toll in retail, personal services, real estate, and government. Still, two sectors that increasingly drive the state’s economy posted strong gains. Education and health services added 3,100 jobs, while professional and business services, which include technology, scientific, and research firms, added 1,200 jobs.

“The downward trend in unemployment, and the fact that we’re seeing growth in some of our most important industries, is good news,’’ said Nancy Snyder, interim secretary of Labor and Workforce Development. “We’re not out of the woods yet, but it’s hopeful.’’

Trends in unemployment and payroll jobs can diverge because they are based on separate surveys by the US Labor Department. Payroll employment estimates come from a survey of businesses. The unemployment rate is estimated from a survey of households. The household survey also captures a broader swath of labor market by including workers, such as independent contractors, who don’t show up on payrolls.

Many analysts had expected the state’s unemployment rate to rise again after October’s sharp drop, and were surprised by November’s decrease. If the rate declines for a third month, it could indicate that the most dismal forecasts were off, according to Elliot Winer, an independent economist in Sudbury.

The New England Economic Partnership, a nonprofit forecasting group, recently projected that state’s unemployment rate would peak at 9.6 percent around mid-2010.

“If it goes down in December,’’ Winer said, “you might be able to say the worst is over.’’

Other data suggest the worst may already be over for the Massachusetts economy, said Alan Clayton-Matthews, an economics professor at Northeastern University. State withholding taxes have increased in each of the past two months, a sign that employers, if not hiring, are at least increasing hours for workers. Massachusetts exports have risen more than 20 percent since April.

Several indicators, such as growing worldwide semiconductor sales, point to an improving technology sector.

In addition, two of the hardest hit industries posted job gains in November. Manufacturing added 900 jobs, the first monthly gain in nearly three years. Construction, which has lost one in five jobs since the beginning of the recession, added 200 jobs, the second consecutive monthly gain.

“The unemployment rate was rising sharply, and now it’s leveling off,’’ said Clayton-Matthews. “It’s consistent with an economy that has bottomed out, and a labor market that is getting near the bottom.’’

Most economists expect a long climb back. More than 300,000 Massachusetts residents are still unemployed, and many more are underemployed or no longer looking for work. Only those who actively seek work are counted as unemployed.

More than 15 percent of Massachusetts workers were unemployed, underemployed, or no longer seeking work in November, compared with about 17 percent nationally, according to the US Labor Department.

As a result, consumers continue to curb the spending on which some industries rely. Massachusetts retailers shed 1,700 jobs in November. Real estate firms cut 1,300 jobs. Leisure and hospitality, which include hotels and restaurants, shed 200.

“The worst of the employment declines might be behind us,’’ said Michael Goodman, an economic analyst and professor of public policy at the University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth. “But the impact of consumers’ retrenchment is evidence that we’re not there yet.’’

Robert Gavin can be reached at rgavin@globe.com.