US jobless rate expected to stay high, group says
NEW YORK — Unemployment in the United States may hold above pre-recession levels until at least 2013 as the economic recovery is restrained by Americans paying down debt and a decline in household net worth, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
The rebound in the world’s largest economy from the worst recession since the 1930s has been made easier by fiscal stimulus, monetary policy support, and improving financial conditions, the OECD said yesterday in its report on the United States.
The economy will expand 2.6 percent on average this year and next, slower than in past recessions because of tighter credit conditions and a drop in households’ net worth, the OECD said.
Angel Gurria, secretary-general of the OECD, said in New York that he doesn’t see a recovery that is sufficiently robust to bring the unemployment rate down to pre-crisis levels in the next couple of years.
“We therefore believe that macro-economic support ought to be maintained in the short term,’’ Gurria said at a news conference. “In this regard, we welcome the announcement of chairman Bernanke that the Federal Reserve would be prepared, if necessary, to provide additional stimulus.’’
Gurria said the US budget deficit needs to return to a “more sustainable path.’’
Investors treat the United States as a “safe haven,’’ and the nation needs to address its deficit “for the sake of the world economy at large,’’ Gurria said in a Bloomberg Television interview.
“The market is more tolerant with the United States than any other market in the world,’’ Gurria said. “You should deal with the issues just like everybody else. Don’t get complacent.’’
The administration’s goal to slash the deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product by 2015 is “an essential step to boost confidence,’’ Gurria said at the press conference.
The jobless rate will average 9.7 percent this year and 9.0 percent in 2011, according to OECD.
