End of housing decline near?

Price drops and declining sales in the Massachusetts housing market moderated in October, two housing reports showed yesterday, suggesting that the months long slump in the real estate market may be nearing its end.

The median price for a single-family home fell 2 percent in October to $341,000 compared to the same month in 2005, according to data compiled by the Massachusetts Association of Realtors.

Sue Hawkes, managing director of Collaborative Cos., a real estate marketing firm, was heartened by October's results.

"In the scheme of things," she said, a 2 percent price drop "is quite low. People think prices have dropped 10 or 15 percent, but the statistics aren't showing that. That's very encouraging news."

In total, the median price for a single-family home has fallen 7.8 percent since hitting a peak of $370,000 in June.

Sales of single-family homes fell 16.5 percent from the previous October to 3,239. In each of the past three months, single-family home sales fell by more than 20 percent.

The real estate market will likely grow relatively quiet for the next few months, as holiday gatherings and cold weather dampen buyers' enthusiasm for house-hunting. Some agents say the October numbers forecast a slow winter.

"The importance of October is that's the tail end of the selling season before you get into the holiday, and everybody was hoping it would've been a little better," said Arthur Shannon, an agent with Century 21 North Shore in Danvers.

October, he said, "tells us how we're going to sit throughout the next few months."

In the condominium market, the median price declined 3.7 percent, to $261,250, from last October, and sales were down 17.6 percent, the association said. While the condo market is much smaller than the market for single-family homes, prices and sales have fallen less for condos because they are relatively more affordable.

Across the country, the sales pace for single-family homes rose as prices fell. The National Association of Realtors said yesterday that the US median house price fell 3.5 percent, to $221,000. Home purchases increased 0.5 percent during October to an annual rate of 6.24 million, according to the association.

A second sales report on the Massachusetts market, released by Warren Group, a Boston real estate firm and publisher of Banker & Tradesman, found sharper price and sales declines. Warren Group said prices for single-family homes fell 6.9 percent in October from year-ago levels, while sales dropped 14.9 percent. Condo prices were down 4.8 percent from year-ago levels, according to Warren, and sales were down 19.5 percent.

Warren Group's data is culled from property sales filed in the state's registries of deeds. It includes transactions the real estate association does not, such as homes sold without the aid of an agent.

"We're still headed down, but not quite so fast," said Timothy Warren, chief executive of Warren Group.

Analysts said lower interest rates are helping stabilize the market. The rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.18 percent last week, according to Freddie Mac, the federal mortgage company. In the summer and in early fall, rates ranged from 6.6 to 6.8 percent. Sellers also have adjusted to the downturn by setting more realistic prices when they put their homes on the market, agents said. The state's strong economic performance of the last few months also is giving buyers the confidence they can afford a new home.

"Buyers have started to move forward," David Wluka, president of the realtors' association, said yesterday.

Still, at the end of October, there were 33 percent more homes and condos for sale statewide than a year earlier.

Kimberly Blanton can be reached at blanton@globe.com.