Making a holiday list, trimming it twice

It doesn't matter if you've been naughty or nice. You'll probably receive fewer presents this holiday season - or at least cheaper ones.

New England residents plan to spend an average of $577, or 19 percent less, on gifts this holiday season compared with the $713 they spent last year, according to a survey to be released today by Deloitte & Touche USA LLP. And they're crossing off one or two people who were on last year's shopping list to hand out on average about 24 presents in December.

Nationally, gift-giving budgets are down 2.5 percent, to $569, according to the survey of 14,135 consumers conducted between Sept. 24 and Oct. 4. Deloitte said New Englanders spent a lot more in 2006 compared with consumers nationally, making this year's pullback bigger.

Consumers everywhere are feeling the pinch with a slumping housing sector and a volatile stock market. And the soaring price of crude oil could give New Englanders their highest winter heating bills ever.

National Retail Federation, the industry's trade group, forecasts holiday sales to grow 4 percent to $474.5 billion, down from 4.6 percent growth the prior year.

The NPD Group, a retail market research firm, is dubbing this season the "hesitation holiday." Its October survey showed 41 percent of consumers plan to put off holiday shopping until at least the day after Thanksgiving, in part because there aren't any hot gifts and shoppers have come to expect deep discounts later in the season.

Nonetheless, retailers like Wal-Mart and Toys "R" Us are trying to lure people in earlier than ever. Starting at 8 a.m. today, both are offering doorbuster deals that in the past were reserved for the day after Thanksgiving.

"This is a zero-sum game. Whatever one retailer gets, the other loses," said Madison Riley, a vice president at retail consulting firm Kurt Salmon Associates. "So retailers understandably are trying to get as early a jump as they can on what is perceived to be a soft market."

Wal-Mart's website launched a "Secret In-Store Specials" section yesterday advertising five products on sale today, including a 1-gigabyte Acer laptop for $348 that's $100 cheaper than comparable ones and a Toshiba high-definition DVD player for $98.87, half off this week's already reduced price. Toys "R" Us touted a "Super Sale" for today and tomorrow with 100 discounted items.

Both chains said they had been planning these promotions for months, rather than reacting to recent consumer sentiment.

Last year "we saw moms in general began to scout for toys at the beginning of October," said Melissa O'Brien, spokeswoman for Wal-Mart, which began brainstorming this sale back in January.

The holiday splurge on presents is critical for a retailer's success, accounting for 25 to 40 percent of annual revenue and an even heftier chunk of profits, according to Bain & Co. And that shopping spree historically kicked off the day after Thanksgiving, which became known as Black Friday because it marked the day stores sold enough goods to turn a profit, or "get in the black."

Wal-Mart expects its early-bird sale to "be a big shopping weekend," said O'Brien. But "Black Friday will remain an important day in the retail business. We aren't trying to move the date."

South Boston resident Andy Gasparonis, 25, said he spent at least $400 on gifts last year and expects to spend the same this year.

"They're my family," he said of the people on his gift list. "Price doesn't matter."

Globe correspondent Rebecca Fitzgerald contributed to this report. Nicole C. Wong can be reached at nwong@globe.com.