NEW YORK—Data from ongoing colon cancer therapy studies could shift the cancer drug market, analysts say, as some drugs appear more effective at treating patients who have the K-ras gene, which is typically associated with cancer.
Rodman & Renshaw analyst Michael G. King Jr. said Amgen Inc.'s Vectibix, ImClone Systems Inc.'s Erbitux, and OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s Tarceva, could gain broader use based on new data. The colon cancer treatments are part of the ongoing attention given to the K-ras gene and information showing it is a good determinant of how well a patient will respond to the class of drugs called EGF receptor inhibitors.
Data from ImClone's Erbitux, presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology gastrointestinal cancer meeting over the weekend, suggest a benefit in patients with the non-mutated K-ras gene. Amgen's Vectibix is approved in Europe as treatment for that class of patient and OSI's Tarceva could have the same benefit.
"The world of colectoral cancer is about to get a lot more interesting," King said, in a note to investors Monday. "The anti-EGF antibody space is the clear winner coming out of the 2008 ASCO gastrointestinal cancers symposium."
Data varies from study to study, King said, but between 40 percent and 60 percent of newly diagnosed colon cancer patients have the non-mutated gene.
"Further, and in a perspective we share with our physician experts, the most straightforward way for the anti-EGF antibodies to challenge Genentech Inc.'s Avastin's hammerlock on first- and second-line treatment of (colon cancer) patients is through determination of a patient's K-ras status," King said.
He also said physicians expect both the Food and Drug Administration and insurers to demand K-ras gene testing in the future, in an effort to improve treatment and cut costs. The test itself is straightforward and uncomplicated.
However, the challenge to Avastin's dominance could still remain difficult, considering the drug has already shown a survival advantage when used as an initial treatment for colon cancer.
Meanwhile, Vectibix and Erbitux continue dueling for market share as second-line treatments while they are being studied and reviewed as possible initial therapies. OSI's Tarceva could make a sales comeback as a colon cancer treatment based on the outlook for K-ras tests., King said.
Shares of Thousand Oaks Calif.-based Amgen fell 24 cents to $47.90 in afternoon trading while shares of rival New York-based ImClone fell 31 cents to $42.74. Melville, N.Y.-based OSI Pharmaceuticals rose 6 cents to $38.96 while South San Francisco, Calif.-based Genentech saw shares rise 90 cents to $68.69.
South San Francisco, Calif.-based Poniard Pharmaceuticals Inc. also presented positive data at the weekend conference. The company said preliminary early-stage trial results showed its drug candidate picoplatin was safer than a standard chemotherapy treatment. The company plans to conduct a midstage study.
Cantor Fitgerald analyst George Zovoico said if the drug candidate proves safer than the combination through a late-stage study it could eventually become the standard of care in the market.
He reaffirmed a "Buy" rating with a $12 price target on Poniard. Shares rose 5 cents to $5.22.
