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Where your dollar buys more

A weaker euro translates into a golden opportunity for US travelers -- for now

If you're thinking about a trip to Europe, now's the time to start booking it.

Political upheaval in some European Union countries has brought the euro to a seven-month low against the US dollar, and economists and analysts say that's one of the best things to happen for American travelers over the past year.

The euro had been on a precipitous climb against the dollar last summer, making it more costly for Americans in Europe to have dinner, visit attractions, rent cars, and stay in hotels. All of those things should be cheaper for dollar-toting Americans for at least several weeks, said Nigel Gault, US economist at Global Insight, an economic forecasting firm in Lexington.

''If you go visit the euro zone, everything you buy will look not quite as expensive as it did in December," he said.

As of yesterday, a euro was worth about $1.23, an exchange rate that reflects a drop of about 9.6 percent in the euro's value since it peaked against the dollar in December. Since then, it has slid and is expected to keep dropping on news that French voters rejected a referendum on the European Union's new constitution. Voters in the Netherlands are widely expected to reject the same proposal, a move that would also hurt the euro while giving Americans and their dollars more buying power overseas. The euro is used in 12 countries, including Ireland, Germany, Greece, and Italy.

''I'll be able to spend more than I originally planned," said Hilary Hudson, 21, who waited at Logan International Airport yesterday for a flight to Madrid.

Thomas Donlan, 31, who was at Logan yesterday on his way to Europe, said the more advantageous exchange rate means he'll eat better meals while on vacation in Germany.

''I might be more inclined to eat out, or just be less concerned about how much I'm spending," he said.

Gault, the economist, cautioned that Americans should not expect their stronger dollars to prevail in Europe for long, because the United States is still mired under a record national debt that will keep the dollar weak against many foreign currencies, including the euro.

To be sure, the dollar will continue to be worth less than the euro. Gault's forecast is for the euro to bottom out at about $1.20, roughly the same exchange rate as last summer.

''I don't want people to think that everything there is going to be a lot cheaper this summer than last summer," Gault said. ''But if we hadn't seen this correction, things could be a lot worse."

The slide in the euro's value, rather than any price discounting by hoteliers or airlines, could make it cheaper to summer in Paris or Frankfurt this year. If American dollars are buying more, it won't likely be because companies are lowering their rates to accommodate travelers from the West, said Henry Harteveldt, vice president of travel research at Forrester Research in San Francisco.

Airlines, he said, are likely to try to take advantage of any increased demand for European travel if the dollar remains strong, he said, lessening the chance that passengers will see cheap fares from the United States.

''If anything, the airlines are going to look at the falling euro and say, 'Wow, this could be the salvation we were looking for.' We'll see airlines hold very firm on their ticket prices because they are looking to transatlantic routes to generate substantial profits," Harteveldt said.

His advice: cross the pond on low-fare European carriers like Icelandair or Aer Lingus, then use ferries, trains, or rental cars for transportation the rest of the way.

Likewise, hotel companies said their European rates will rise and fall with demand, not currency exchange rates.

John Wolf, a spokesman for Marriott International Inc., said most of the guests at the company's European hotels are business travelers who come from other European countries, a group not as likely to be affected by currency fluctuations as American vacationers.

''If you're traveling from Germany to France, you're still paying in euros," Wolf said.

Keith Reed can be reached at reed@globe.com. Globe correspondent Kristin Koziarski contributed to this report. Material from Globe wire services was also used in this report.

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