PC now or Vista later?

Microsoft Corp.'s planned release of its long-awaited Vista operating system on Jan. 30 is scrambling the calculations of computer makers, retailers, and shoppers in the final week before Christmas.

Personal computer manufacturers and sellers, fearing that Vista's imminent release might lead consumers to hold off on billions of dollars of purchases over the holidays, have been discounting computers powered by the current Windows operating system for consumers who buy today. They're also offering free upgrades to Vista when it's available .

Shoppers, meanwhile, face the choice of snapping up "Vista-capable" PCs on sale to put under their trees and registering to receive Vista upgrade discs next year, or waiting to purchase PCs loaded with Vista, possibly at higher prices, after the holidays.

"It's a classic dilemma," said Roger Kay , president of the research firm Endpoint Technologies Associates in Wayland. "Inventory is like fish in this industry. Retailers want it out of their stores before Vista arrives. If you're risk-oriented and don't mind installing Vista yourself, you could probably wait till Dec. 23 and get a fantastic deal. In February, you'll get it preinstalled but maybe not at a fire sale price."

At the Best Buy electronics store in Boston's Fenway neighborhood yesterday, shoppers were weighing the Vista issue while browsing computers during their lunch hour. Tia Purnell , a recruiting manager at Tufts Health Plan who researched her purchase in advance, agreed to buy a Toshiba laptop within a minute of entering the store. "It's on sale and I need it," said Purnell, who is starting a graduate business program at Northeastern University next month. She said she isn't worried about taking the free Vista upgrade in February.

But another shopper, Austin Lin , a student at the Berklee School of Music, said he'll wait for models loaded with Vista. "I'll buy when most of the software supports the new operating system," he said.

Chris Krikorian , who answers customers' questions from the "Geek Squad" desk at the store, located in Landmark Center, said he's been asked the Vista question 8 to 10 times a day since Thanksgiving. "It's the first thing they ask," he said, adding that customers nervous about installing Vista could pay Best Buy to install it. "We tell them not to worry. If you see a computer you like today, go for it."

But not everyone agrees. Some in the technology field are skeptical of assurances by the PC makers and Microsoft that all of the complex graphical features of Vista will work as smoothly in computers currently loaded with Windows .

"If I'm buying retail, I want to play with a computer preloaded with Vista to see how the features work," said Xavier Lanier , a San Francisco blogger who covers notebook computers. Lanier said he's holding off on buying until next year, partly because he anticipates PC makers will be rolling out new models to accompany Vista.

Operating systems, which run computers and their software programs and control devices such as printers, are the most profitable segment of the PC business. Vista will be Microsoft's successor to Windows, which has dominated the PC market for more than a decade, and is being marketed as a significant advance in everything from its look and feel to its graphics and security features.

Microsoft disappointed its hardware and retail partners when it acknowledged last March that Vista wouldn't be ready to be installed on PCs this holiday season as it had planned. The company attributed the delay to, among other things, the need to test new security features and the complexity of its specifications. The effect of a Vista delay was "literally the $1.8 billion question for us," said Brad Brooks , a Windows product general manager at Microsoft in Redmond, Wash. The delay meant that the company had to take an accounting deferral, pushing off recognition of $1.8 billion in income from end-of-year PC sales until next year's first quarter. Microsoft also created a "technology guarantee program" assuring that the vast majority of consumers buying Vista-capable PCs would get free upgrades when Vista is released.

That wasn't enough to prompt William Choi to open his wallet for a new computer yet. The systems engineer was shopping at Best Buy yesterday, but said he would wait until all the bugs have been worked out before he buys a computer loaded with Vista. "I learned one lesson: Never buy bleeding edge; never buy something when it first comes out," he said.

Despite the consumer caution prompted by the Vista release, Brooks said reports from retailers indicate PC sales for the week after Thanksgiving were up 20 percent from last year. "The slowdown people expected hasn't materialized," he said. A separate retailer survey by an independent research firm, NPD Group in Port Washington, N.Y., showed notebook computer sales were up 64 percent for the week of Thanksgiving, though desktop computer sales were down 3.3 percent, reflecting the growing popularity of laptops.

Such figures don't include foreign sales, sales to businesses, or direct-to-market sales by Dell Inc., the Round Rock, Texas, computer giant that bypasses the retail channel by selling its PCs over the phone and Internet. Overall, the Vista delay is likely to shave about 1 percentage point -- equivalent to more than $2 billion -- off earlier projections of a 10 percent increase in total PC shipments this year, Endpoint's Kay predicted.

Part of that loss will be recovered in February and March, or during next year's Christmas season. But many would-be buyers might spend the money they had budgeted for computers on flat-panel televisions instead, Kay warned. He added that computer makers have been "annoyed" about the delay. "This is the worst possible timing from their standpoint," he said.

Hewlett-Packard Co. said Wednesday that buyers of its Vista-capable PCs could begin signing up for the free upgrades at once. "Obviously it would have been easier for us to have it during the holiday season," conceded Jim Kahler , the HP director of North America warranty and support. "A reasonable person forecasting the trends would say the holiday season will be a little bit softer than it would have been if Vista had been rolled out. But the other side of the equation is we'll have an opportunity to grow the marketplace next year."

Bob Kaufman , a Dell spokesman, put it even more diplomatically. "Things change," he said. "And our culture and business model are flexible enough to allow us to work with the changes."

Globe staff reporter Hiawatha Bray contributed to this story. Robert Weisman can be reached at weisman@globe.com.