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Tablet computers at crossroads?

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Seattle Post-Intelligencer / December 23, 2007

Bill Gates has long championed the notion of Tablet PCs - portable computers that let users scribble in digital ink on the screen as an alternative to a keyboard.

So far, most computer users haven't shared his enthusiasm. But some analysts say the rising acceptance of touch-screen interfaces - exemplified by Apple's iPhone - could put a new spotlight on the concept.

The question is whether Microsoft or Apple will be better positioned to capitalize on it.

There has long been speculation about the possibility of Apple introducing a tablet-style Mac, fueled in part by the Cupertino, Calif., company's patent filings on tablet-computing technology. As in the past, the possibility is likely to be the subject of rumors leading up to the Macworld convention in January, where Apple chief executive Steve Jobs traditionally unveils products.

Microsoft's original Tablet PC software, introduced in 2002, was based on digital-pen technology. Microsoft added touch-screen capabilities a year ago. The iPhone, meanwhile, has captured attention for its use of "multi-touch," the ability to use multiple fingers at once, for more complex navigation.

Upon the launch of the Tablet PC, some analysts projected annual sales as high as 10 million units by 2007. In reality, they've been a fraction of that - expected to come in around 1.7 million in 2007.

"I think [Microsoft] succeeded in the sense that there are still vendors introducing Tablets," said analyst Michael Gartenberg of Jupiter Research. "I don't think they succeeded in the way that they'd hoped it would become a standard paradigm for mobile computing."

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