Will the economy take the wind out of Patrick's plan?

Progress made on green energy; but timetable is dicey

(Suzanne Kreiter/ Globe Staff/ File 2008)

Shortly after taking office in January 2007, Governor Deval Patrick made Massachusetts part of a landmark regional coalition to reduce greenhouse gases from area power plants. That April, he released a 13-page directive outlining some of his environmental policies. And in the nearly two years since, the state has produced a flood of green bills, mandates, orders, fledgling programs, and other goals.

As a result, some say Massachusetts has positioned itself as a leader in energy and environmental policy. But others question whether Patrick's lofty goals can be reached, especially given how far the economy has fallen since they were proposed.

Indeed, the state's timetable for its green initiatives appears ambitious. For example, within the next eight years, it wants to increase the state's solar power capacity from 7.2 megawatts to 250 - almost 35 times current capacity. To reach its wind power goal of 2,000 megawatts by 2020 - up from today's modest 6.62 megawatts - generating capacity must be multiplied more than 300 times. Other mandates, such as those related to energy efficiency and alternative fuels, are just as dramatic.

"Whether any of these goals are achievable within the time frame, in my view, is going to depend critically on three factors over which the state has no control," said Robert Stavins, an environmental economist and director of Harvard University's environmental economics program. "One is the pace and depth of the economic recession and recovery." The other factors, Stavins said, are "the rate, nature, and timing of the federal government's economic stimulus package," which contains significant funding for green projects, and federal energy policies that could trump state and local plans.

Already, the faltering economy and related credit crunch have dampened the plans of some clean tech start-ups and young green businesses looking to grow in Massachusetts - though the sector has taken less of a hit than many others. Also, Cape Wind - an offshore wind turbine project that could account for as much as a fifth of the state's wind-power goal - has been slow in winning approval.

Meanwhile, following the rollout of federal subsidies for renewable energy, the state recently halved its rebate for residential solar installations from $2 to $1 per watt installed.

Still, Ian Bowles, head of the state's Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs, believes the optimism of 2007 won't succumb to the widespread economic pessimism of 2009, at least when it comes to environmental and energy issues.

"We're making very strong progress on all these goals," Bowles said, calling them the "building blocks" that will allow the state to reach even loftier milestones, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent, from 1990 levels, by 2050.

According to a November report by the state Department of Energy Resources, Massachusetts utility companies exceeded a state requirement to obtain 3 percent of their electricity in 2007 from renewable power sources, though a portion of that green power was imported from Canada. But the requirement is set to become more stringent over the next several years, and by 2020 utilities must buy 15 percent of their power from renewable sources.

Regarding solar power, Bowles said that since a rebate program called Commonwealth Solar launched in January 2007, the number of solar installation companies in Massachusetts has tripled from 25 to 75.

At the same time, solar capacity in Massachusetts is growing modestly. According to Bowles, when Patrick took office there were enough solar installations in the state to generate about 4 megawatts of electricity; today there are enough to generate 7.2 megawatts. An additional 3.8 megawatts of capacity are also in the planning stages.

"It takes a curve for it to grow, and we always projected that it would go at the pace that it's going," Bowles said of solar capacity. "In fact, we're far above where we thought we'd be."

But to reach its wind-power goal, the state must rely heavily on the success of offshore wind projects, many of which are still in planning stages.

Currently, Massachusetts has 6.62 megawatts of wind-power capacity and more than 900 megawatts on tap from proposed projects. Even so, Bowles believes more than half of the 2,000 megawatts the state wants installed by 2020 will have to come from offshore projects - a potential problem considering the 130-turbine Cape Wind project has faced many delays, including opposition from residents who have concerns about the project's location and safety.

Besides siting issues and economic woes, other obstacles loom, including how to increase demand for renewable technologies at a time when fuel prices are down, and upgrading and connecting the electric grid to make the best use of alternative energy sources.

Environmentalists say Massachusetts legislators are right to aim high with the state's green goals.

"I don't think we have a choice, frankly," said Sue Reid, a staff attorney with the Conservation Law Foundation. "Solar alone isn't going to get us there. Wind isn't going to get us there; efficiency isn't, either. . . . We have to get the ball rolling on all these fronts."

But that's what worries Robert Rio, senior vice president for government affairs for Associated Industries of Massachusetts, a trade group that has long questioned what effect renewable energy will have on the electric grid and electricity prices.

"These are very aggressive goals," Rio said. "You just wonder if anybody is adding up all the bills, all the programs. Is anyone adding up the bottom line of all these goals and asking whether it makes sense economically?"

John Rogers, a senior energy analyst for the Union of Concerned Scientists, based in Cambridge, said it is obvious that the state's plan makes sense environmentally.

"It's pretty clear that we can meet every one of those goals if we have the will," Rogers said. "And it's pretty clear from what the science is telling us that we have to meet so many of these goals to get on the path that we need to be."

The governor is scheduled to head to the West Coast next week to meet with business leaders, including those in green industries, in an attempt to persuade them to do business in Massachusetts. The presence of such companies here could help the state boost solar and wind capacity.

But the responsibility for achieving energy and environmental goals doesn't just fall on government, said Tim Healy, chief executive of EnerNOC, a Boston-based energy management company that pays its customers to reduce electricity consumption at peak usage times.

"It's great to have the legislation behind us, but the execution is what is going to be so important," Healy said. "It hinges on the entrepreneurs, the developers to come out and say, 'I'm going to take a risk, I'm going to put a project together.' "

Erin Ailworth can be reached at eailworth@globe.com.