Alternative evolution
Slowly but surely, one step at a time, motoring is turning away from gasoline
One of the misconceptions about weaning ourselves from dependence on petroleum-powered vehicles is that there will be a "Eureka!" moment of discovery when someone discovers a quick way to extract hydrogen from the air to propel the world's vehicles.
"Not so fast," said Robert J. Natkin of
But it is happening, a step at a time.
"You need a vision and determination. No one is saying it will happen today or tomorrow," said Natkin. You have to envision a scenario where the world will turn from petroleum dependence to renewable energy sources. It's an evolutionary process."
The process was on display at the AltWheels Festival. AltWheels -- on line at alt wheels.org -- began as a grassroots program founded by Alison Sander, but quickly has established a national profile. It's being embraced as a de facto trade show by major auto manufacturers, niche start-ups, fuel suppliers, and political leaders.
Functional alternative vehicles are on the market now: hybrids, flexible-fuel vehicles (ethanol mix), clean diesels, and hydrogen-powered internal combustion engines. Many envision a day when the fuel cell will be perfected for daily use, taking hydrogen from the atmosphere and turning it into electricity and expelling only pure (drinkable) water as a by product of the energy-making process.
Indeed, there was a fuel cell-powered Ford Focus on display at the festival with a driving range of 160-200 miles. Instead of drawing hydrogen from the atmosphere, it runs on compressed hydrogen.
In the real world, alternative transportation requires having both product (vehicles) and fuels widely available.
We wondered if the situation could be compared to the advent of high-definition television. Five years ago, people wouldn't buy the televisions because there wasn't much programming and networks wouldn't program in HD because there weren't many HD viewers. Then a critical mass was achieved and sales and programming began to take off.
"Sort of," said Natkin, "but a better example is the Model T. Before Henry Ford gave us the Model T, automobiles were the playthings of the rich. It was a time when average annual income was in the $500 range."
"Back then, gasoline was merely a by product of oil refining and was burned off as waste by the oil companies," he said. "Henry determined that it was suitable for automobile fuel and convinced companies to make it available virtually at cost, then produced a vehicle that cost less than a year's salary for the average household.
At first, distribution was a problem because owners had to bring empty fuel containers to a store where the gasoline was hand-pumped. Gas stations made fueling much more convenient.
Natkin is the technical leader of Ford's hydrogen internal combustion engine initiative , including powertrain research and advanced engineering for future applications.
There are enough H2 (hydrogen) stations around to drive through much of the Northeast -- if you know where to look -- but neither the distribution network nor number of hydrogen-powered vehicles has reached critical mass. Natkin puts the number of refueling facilities nationwide at no more than 50.
Today, the hybrid vehicles on the market are the alternative-energy leaders, including models such as the
Because hybrids are more economical in city driving than on highways, they actually may be doing more good than is acknowledged.
Stephen R. Connors, director of MIT's Analysis Group for Sustainable Energy Flagship Program, has encouraged a student research program to study the effect of hybrids. "Traffic is so bad in every major city that much of our commuting, even though it's on highways, actually is stop-and-go city driving," Connors said. "And because hybrids get better mileage under those conditions where they run more on electrical power, they may be saving more gas than we realize -- maybe enough to offset the extra time people are spending sitting in that traffic. That's what we're trying to determine."
At the festival, Ford displayed a 12-passenger hydrogen-powered bus -- the type used at airports all over the country. The company has orders for 20, eight of which are bound for Orlando, Fla., this winter. The buses are powered by six 5-kilogram tanks of compressed hydrogen. A kilogram of hydrogen is equivalent to a gallon of gas.
"It's a perfect early application for the vehicles," Connors said. "You've got a niche where they can thrive and grow. They're centrally garaged for service -- not that they should need much -- and fueling."
A three-year lease for such a bus would cost about $250,000. But that could change fast, and prices could drop.
"The evolution is happening. The forward-thinking realize that there may be a much better product available in two years," said Natkin.
