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New Opinion Dynamics poll: Baker up 5%

Posted by Garrett Quinn, Less is More  October 14, 2010 07:49 PM

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Had enough of polls? Well here is another one with charts and shiny things!

The latest from an Opinion Dynamics poll of 431 self-identified registered voters conducted between October 7, 2010 – October 10, 2010:

Thinking ahead to the 2010 general election for Governor of Massachusetts if the candidates were Republican Charlie Baker, Democrat Deval Patrick, Independent Tim Cahill and Green-Rainbow Candidate Jill Stein for whom would you vote?

Charlie Baker 37%
Deval Patrick 32%
Tim Cahill 14%
Jill Stein 2%
Don't Know 14%

magov201010OP.png

Ok, a five point lead. Nothing to write home about in a two-way race but in a four-way race that's respectable. Tim Cahill at 14%? Yeah, that won't last. 14% "Don't Know"? It's three weeks before the election!

What if the candidates for Governor were just Republican Charlie Baker and Democrat Deval Patrick, for whom would you vote?

Charlie Baker 50%
Deval Patrick 39%
Don't Know 10%

magov201010OPtwoway.png

So this is where the "Cahill is a spoiler crowd" can start screaming and yelling, but only to a point. This poll does not break down where Cahill voters will go if given a choice. The Boston Globe conducted a similar poll and it showed that the voters would split evenly. Suffolk's poll showed Cahill voters would break off 38% to Baker, 31% to Patrick and 15% would go down with the ship.


What do you think is the single most important leadership quality you look for in a candidate for Governor?

Honesty/ trustworthiness 32%
Ability to create jobs/fix the economy 8

An assortment of other issues and character traits like "Decision-maker," "leadership skills," and "being a good guy" made up the remaining 60%.

LeadershipQualities.png

Respondents said overwhelmingly that the "economy" and "jobs/unemployment" are the most important issues in the governors race, even though we all know Tim Cahill and emails sent by Adam Meldrum are. Lawsuits! Scuzzbags!

When it comes to the ballot questions in Massachusetts:

This coming November, there will be a measure on the Massachusetts statewide ballot that would reduce the state sales and use tax rates (which were 6.25% as of September 2009) to 3% as of January 1, 2011. Based on this information, do you think you would vote “yes”—in favor of reducing the state sales and use tax rates, or “no”—against reducing the state sales and use tax rates?

Yes 55%
No 40%
Don't Know 5%

Question3OP.png

This is striking because the Suffolk poll was the first poll to show Question 3, the initiative that would lower the sales tax to 3%, losing. This poll conducted near the same time shows Question 3 up by 15%. For a campaign with negative zero dollars that's pretty impressive. Of course the teevee ads telling us how the world will end if it passes are just starting to pop up.

Question 1 is losing, like it has in most polls. In this poll 53% No, 44% Yes, 3% Don't Know.

And, what if the candidates for Attorney General of Massachusetts were Republican James P. McKenna and Democrat Martha Coakley, for whom would you vote?

Martha Coakley 48%
Jim McKenna 39%
Don't Know 13%

These are impressive numbers for a guy who made it on the ballot at the last minute with a statewide write-in campaign. Still, Coakley has learned from her embarrassment in January. She won't blow it again.

And on the federal front:

How likely are you to vote against the incumbent Democrat in your congressional district in the elections this November: very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all?

Very/Somewhat 57%
Not Very/Not Likely At All 38%
Don't Know 5%

Generic questions like this won't really reflect what will happen in individual districts. The people in western Massachusetts probably won't throw out John Olver even though they hate congress like everybody else. The old line of "I hate congress but love my congressman" will prevail. People complain about congress but the reelection rate is almost always above 90%. Want job security? Become a congressman.

This blog is not written or edited by Boston.com or the Boston Globe.
The author is solely responsible for the content.

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About the author

Garrett Quinn began writing for newspapers at age 17 with CNC in his native South Shore. He has been published in BlueMassGroup, RedMassGroup, Pioneer Investigates, and Wonkette. He is a More »

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