Key data point from this poll:
In the head to head with Warren, Brown has the GOP base completely locked up 89-3. And the 17% of Democrats he's winning is comparable to the 19% we found him getting against Martha Coakley in 2010. But he's only up 48-36 with independents, a far cry from his 64-32 advantage with them against Coakley, and that's the main reason he trails by this narrow margin.
Warren is reclaiming the middle from Brown. We find her up 42-40 with moderate voters, a group that we found Brown leading Coakley 55-41 with. She's also inspiring a lot of enthusiasm from young people. 56% rate her favorably to 27% with an unfavorable view, and she leads Brown 56-29 with them.
If turnout this November is similar to what it was in 2008 Brown probably needs 60-70 percent of independents and 15-20 percent of Democrats to have a prayer. Not impossible for him but still no easy task. Both candidates need to turnout independents but due to the Democrats huge registration advantage Warren does not need to rely on them as heavily as Brown.
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