Unemployment drops from 10.2% to 7.8%

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    Re: Unemployment drops from 10.2% to 7.8%

    Don't worry, it will be adjusted to be back over 8 after the election.

     

     
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    Re: Unemployment drops from 10.2% to 7.8%

    The U-3 is a worthless statistic.  The only way yo get to that number is by skewing the workforce participation rate down.  you can't have 1% GDP and a magical drop in unemployment without that.

    Use the workforce participation rate Obama inherited, and the U-3 unemployment is 10.7%.

    Time for the left to stop this deception.

     
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    Re: Unemployment drops from 10.2% to 7.8%

    Unemployment is the lowest it's been in 44 months, measured the same way it's been measured all along.  The way that the loyal opposition has relied on to beat up the current administration all along.  Down .5% in one month.

     
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    Re: Unemployment drops from 10.2% to 7.8%

    Duplicate

     
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    Re: Unemployment drops from 10.2% to 7.8%

    In response to StalkingButler's comment:

    Don't worry, it will be adjusted to be back over 8 after the election.



    And if it can't be, President Romney will change the official methodology, right?

     

     
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    Re: Unemployment drops from 10.2% to 7.8%

    In response to Firewind's comment:

    Unemployment is the lowest it's been in 44 months, measured the same way it's been measured all along.  The way that the loyal opposition has relied on to beat up the current administration all along.  Down .5% in one month.




    No it is not.  The formula is the same; the inputs are way different, as the situation is worse and different than anything we have previously experienced. 

    For example:  Part of it is the by-product of such a long cycle of high unemployment.  Typically, shorter periods of unemployment are is use, historically, 13 weeks to maybe 26 weeks.  At the end of that time, the unemployed move into one of three buckets:  working, not working but looking, not working and not looking.  If recovery actually happens, the 1st bucket is big, the 2nd one moderate in size, the third, very small.  Hence, the U-3 is reasonably accurate.

    Take today:  99 weeks of unemployment.  As people fall off the end of unemployment TWO YEARS after they start, not one quarter as in previous recessions, the buckets they occupy is inverse to the typical pattern:  The third bucket is the largest, the other two buckets are nearly non-existent, at least according to the data we have. 

    So, the workforce participation rate as a result is tremendously skewed, and in turn, skews the result of the U-3 calculation.  This is why the number of 7.8%, or 8.2% for that matter, does not mean anything useful.  You need to reset the workforce participation rate or use the U-6 calculation, as both will bring the number into better alignment with reality.

    Get it?

     

     
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    Re: Unemployment drops from 10.2% to 7.8%

    In response to Kirk6's comment:

    Umemployment has dropped from 10.2% to 7.8%
    The stock market has doubled since the stimulus.
    5 million private sector jobs have been created since 2009.
    GDP has been growing since 2009.
    Americans net worth is up $10 trillion dollars since 2009.
    Auto sales are up. Retail sales are up. Home sales are up.
    Bin Laden is dead, and GM is alive.
    Obama has done a very good job.

     




    Fewer people working todaythan when Obama took office.

    The only thing obama is good at is fudging the numbers.

     
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