Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from meterman2. Show meterman2's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?No. The economy is what it is. We are in a recession, the extent of which is still to be determined. However, let there be no doubt about it that a faltering economy this year benefits the Democrats. The current coverage of the economy is justifiable do the magnitude of housing decline and credit meltdown.�

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from pensapositivo. Show pensapositivo's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?

    The housing market crisis is not a media creation. People are having problem to pay their houses. There is a large amount of delinquent mortgages that are affecting the finance of the banks, specially those small lenders. �-->-->The high oil price also is not a creation of the media. The price of oil is affecting everybody, reducing the disposable income and now affecting the price of foods and services. People in general are poorer than they were before the oil crisis. �-->-->The effect, especially oil price, is a overall reduction of the disposable income, pushing people to start restricting the purchasing of other goods or services that are less important. The result of this is a fall of sales. �-->-->The housing market could recover fast, because the disgraced of some is the happiness of other. With a low interest rate and house pricing the market will see a rebound of home sales in a short period of time. Perhaps less than a year. �-->-->In reference to the oil effect, this could have a longer duration than the housing crisis. The reason is that salaries are not growing to the speed of the gas and food prices. There is a deterioration of the salary a result of this. Once the oil and food prices stabilized , the disposable income will start growing until recovers its level pre oil crisis. This will take a couple of years, around 2.�-->-->It is interesting, but today we are in a similar situation the 1973 oil crisis, with a Republican President, an economy that is a mess and a very low dollar price and a loosing war.�-->-->People will look for a protectionist solution, hopefully not as bad as when Carter was elected to overcome the crisis.�-->-->�-->-->�-->-->�-->-->

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from meterman2. Show meterman2's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?

    the worst thing they fed could do is continually bail out companies and people-mostly companies. pumping money into the system has devalued the dollar and has turned foreign investors away from dollar based commodities.I agree!� It does appear that "the fed" is bailing out Wall St. at the cost of taxpayers. Non-homeowners, non-shareholders and those not involved with 401K's do not benefit from the "bailout(s) or interest rate slashes (beyond what is necessary to prevent an economic meltdown), but they are affected by inflation and the weak dollar.� Market corrections and bubbles bursting are part of the cycle. This time I think the Fed overreacted a bit too much to the Wall St. whining.� Banks who made poor loans and people who obtained loans they couldn't pay should not be "bailed out".� I wonder what type of bonuses were awarded to the Bear Stearns Exec's a couple of years ago?

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from billings11. Show billings11's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?

    i partly agree, mccain would/should be vastly better than bush, and he himself isn't a bad person or a bad politician. he has made the mistake of running as a repub at the worst possible time.

    Not every Republican is George Bush, scauma...

    Would you like me to associate every Democrat with Jimmy Carter, James Buchanan, or the scandolous Clinton administration?

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from billings11. Show billings11's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?

    I agree with Ron Paul on a number of issues. However, I think he has made some questionable comments about 9/11, and while I agree with his position on the free market and the constitution - his vigor to overturn Roe v. Wade, prevent gun control measures and put a constitutional ban on gay marriage are things that I feel, as a federalist, should be left to the states to decide.

    I think he is dead on with many issues - he just hasn't been able to communicate them clearly enough for people to know where he stands. While I think his analysis of the Iraq war is 100% justifiable, I'm very reluctant to pull out of it like we did Vietnam, because I worry about the lives and safety of the American soldiers. I believe we need a commander in chief who is fully aware of our foreign policy and military capacity - so that I can feel confident that the right decision is made - again, for the safety of our troops. That's all I care about on that issue. I also very much agree with Paul when it comes to health care in the broadest spectrum possible, but I have failed to hear any specifics from him on the issue. I align with him on personal privacy and liberty, as well as on taxes. I also thought Rudy Giuliani was on par with those issues as well.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from mrkleen2002. Show mrkleen2002's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?

    As for the economy- I think the key is that people need otbe able to buy homes again and be able to buy in general. Despite whatboston.com posts- you can get a mortgage with decent credit and a good downpayment. BUT, once the credit squeeze ends, the economy will get better.Globally- we are a credit economy and if there is none- then everyone'seconomic interests are hurt.-->�-->
    That all well and good, but we are NOT EVEN CLOSE to seeingthe end of the �credit squeeze�, so your entire post is mute�.and probably willbe till well into 2009 at the earliest.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from bubbles-tms. Show bubbles-tms's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?

    �Hard to blame Barney on this one.

    Repealing Glass - Stegall was idiocy.
    Having the Fed ignore it's role as a regulator was criminal.
    Slashing interest rates to prop up the stock markets is short sighted
    Lending to companies with credit ratings in the low Bs at Libor + 150� borders on lunacy
    Letting Hedge Funds and PE firms gear to 30x capital is a recipe for disaster

    The tragedy is that the people who take it on the chin are the people who bought houses at the peak under the impression that prices always go up.� They couldn't pay the nut on what they paid.� They will drown if their rates reset upwards.� They can't refinance because the credit markets have seized.� And the Fed won't lift a hand to help them.

    2009 is the optimistic projection for recovery in the credit markets.� There is very little new debt issuance.� Banks want their money back, they don't want to lend.� Ultimately, this means contraction.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from bubbles-tms. Show bubbles-tms's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?

    ��� By blurring the line between investment and commercial banks, the fed has ceded a lot of control over the money supply.� Even if they continue to pump money into the economy, the delvering of hedge funds and PE firms will shrink the money supply, as will the tightening in the interbank market.� This is the new paradigm.� Non-bank lenders have helped pump up liquidity.� If they pull-back, which is the current indication, all the fed can do is shoot rates to zero.� That led to all sorts of fun in Japan......

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from meterman2. Show meterman2's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?

    Recessions are often self-fulfilling prophecies driven by human emotion. Of course you never know if you are really in one officially until you are already there.

    The general public doesn't really need an economist to tell them that things are bad. When you see gasoline at $3.50 and food prices going up and yet you hear an inflation report from the gov't that excludes energy and food you can get the feeling that you are being manipulated.

    Very good observation!

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from tedlicious. Show tedlicious's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?


    a recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year.


    With respect scauma, we haven`t had ONE quarter with a decline in GDP, let alone TWO.
    Should we be letting the Globe talk us into something that just isn`t true?
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from tedlicious. Show tedlicious's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?


    It still is not a recession until we experience 2 consecutive quarters of a decline in GDP. We haven`t and probably won`t.

    I am saying we should call it what it IS not something it IS NOT.� There are many posts in this "Politics" thread where people say "recession" without knowing the meaning.

    Nobody is denying that things are tough right now.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from tedlicious. Show tedlicious's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?


    I don`t care what they agree on, we have not experienced a decline in GDP and we have not seen negative growth.� They just announced .06% growth (not negative) down from 1.5% growth (again, not negative) the quarter before.

    You may want to get new economists?

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from meterman2. Show meterman2's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?

    �I don`t care what they agree on, we have not experienced a decline in GDP and we have not seen negative growth.� They just announced .06% growth (not negative) down from 1.5% growth (again, not negative) the quarter before.The +0.6% 4th quarter GDP speaks volumes. Would you agree that October was stronger than November and November was stronger than December. Would you agree that every month since has been weaker than December? I have no doubt that the recession will be dated as starting at the end of November 2007.Your waiting for a label to tell you what most have accepted.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from tedlicious. Show tedlicious's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?

    "Your waiting for a label to tell you what most have accepted."


    It is not a label, it is the true, technical, definition.� It is a fact.� You are admitting in your post that there is no negative growth.

    And the "most" you refer to are people with an agenda.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from tedlicious. Show tedlicious's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?


    Nobody is denying your "economy in the crapper" statement.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from tedlicious. Show tedlicious's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?


    "say november saw a 20% growth rate, and then the following five monthssaw a combined 50% decrease, would that 'technically' be considered arecession?"

    Great question, (and I by no means am worthy to answer it), but, here is my thought:

    It sure sounds like it would be.� You would be up 20 and then down 50 with a result of -30.� I don`t know how they measure and determine that� Q4/07� experienced� .6% growth and Q3/07 experienced 1.5% growth.� Again, the "book" definition is negative growth and although .6% and 1.5% seems miniscule, it is in fact positive growth.

    As you mentioned, and I agree, all of this means nothing as the "economy is in the crapper".

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from meterman2. Show meterman2's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?

    It is not a label, it is the true, technical, definition.� It is a fact.� You are admitting in your post that there is no negative growth.
    No.� I'm stating that if you accept that the front end of the 4th quarter (mostly October) was stronger than the 2nd half and the GDP still came in at only +0.6%, that it indicates the 2nd half of the quarter had to be negative. What you're stating is that we must wait for the Department of Commerce to tell us we're in a recession (by way of� data from 3 month quarters). Unfortunately, the technical definition of a recession is applied posthumusly (after we've been in one for six months). Each month since November has been worse than the previous month.� I've been through many of these, and we're in one now.� The trick is knowing when it is coming, when it is here and judging how long it will last, the later being the most difficult.� The Fed cuts and stimulus package will take some time.� The American consumer is responsible for about 70% of the economy. The weak dollar translating into higher commodity prices coupled with the Fed cuts means higher inflation, which is not good for the consumer to be bailing�us out of this. �If jobs start evaporating, it may get much worse before it turns around. The drastic cuts applied by the Fed and the rapid passage of the stimulus package were done for good reason.....the economy is in a crisis.As Dylan said, "you don't need a weatherman to tell you which way the wind blows".

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from tedlicious. Show tedlicious's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?


    " I've been through many of these, and we're in one now. "

    It is still positive growth.� Again, TWO quarters of negative growth=recession.� We still haven`t had ONE quarter of negative growth.

    I don`t make this stuff up.� These are simple facts available eveywhere.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from tedlicious. Show tedlicious's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?


    "We've had over 4 straight months of negative growth and it is not getting better soon!"



    WE HAVE HAD NO NEGATIVE GROWTH AT ALL!!!!!!!

    This is what we`ve been discussing all day.� .06% GROWTH!!!! (that is POSITIVE),� the quarter before 1.5% GROWTH (that is POSITIVE).� We have had NO negative growth.� You are absolutely correct about 2001. It was the last RECESSION (2 consectutive quarters of negative growth).� You are wrong about this. We have not had negatives yet and most indicators say we won`t.

    Are you a Democrat meterman?� I don`t want to label you, but, typically facts and Democrats don`t go together and you`re really having a hard time with factual data so I am assuming.�

    Please, if you are an Independent or (God forbid) an evil Republican, forgive me.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from meterman2. Show meterman2's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?

    WE HAVE HAD NO NEGATIVE GROWTH AT ALL!!!!!!!The�Dow reached an "all-time high" on October 8, 2007, Despite that the quarter came staggering in at only .6% +.� Is it too simple to understand that the 2nd half of the 4th quarter was negative? Every report issued this year has been negative, but you cannot accept this because of one single declaration.
    You are absolutely correct about 2001. It was the last RECESSION (2 consectutive quarters of negative growth).� Check it out. The Recession of 2001 did not contain two consectutive quarters as you define it (calendar year quarters). You are wrong about this. We have not had negatives yet and most indicators say we won`t.What data are YOU looking at?Are you a Democrat meterman?�NO!!!!Please, if you are an Independent or (God forbid) an evil Republican, forgive me.I forgive you. I understand the technical definition of a recession. Do you understand that the definition is applied in retrospect? What others and I have and most economists (without agenda-as you say) are referring to is the Present. TODAY. NOW. I follow the data so that I know how to manage my investments. Adults cannot wait "when to be told" when a recession has occurred. Do you have any investments? Are you out of high school?

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from tedlicious. Show tedlicious's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?


    WE HAVE HAD NO NEGATIVE GROWTH!!!!!!!

    You can`t be this dumb!�� 1.5% GROWTH!!!!��� .06% GROWTH!!!!!�� It may be small GROWTH but it is GROWTH!!!�� When (if) we get to April and it is determined that Q1/07 came in at some negative growth (which it won`t), that will begin the 1st quarter of NEGATIVE GROWTH.�

    Again, you can`t be this dumb!!!

    This thread "Recession Hype=Campaign Tactic?" is perfect for a fool like you.� This is exactly what the Dumb-o-Rats want, misinformed people to come on and scream "recession" when they don`t even know what a recession is (like you).

    You ask me if I`m in High School?� At least I paid attention in Economics class.

    And yes, my (carefully) managed portfolio could buy and sell you.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from tedlicious. Show tedlicious's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?


    "this is a� very possible and likely outcome when considering the market today."


    Possible, but unlikely, and as you say, not a "recession".

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from bubbles-tms. Show bubbles-tms's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?

    The NBER has a different definition than the one you cite:

    A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spreadacross the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible inreal GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, andwholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economyreaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough.Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion isthe normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and theyhave been rare in recent decades.

    And right now most economists, as polled by the WSJ, believe we are in a recession.

    Either way, the economy is in a precarious position.� Commodity costs are squeezing out other spending.� The dow is essentially the same as it was 9 years ago.� Real income for most people is down.� Banks and non-bank lenders are contracting credit.� And Risk has become the most important 4 letter word in the English language.�


     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from tedlicious. Show tedlicious's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?


    Thanks bubbles, but, it`s not "my" definition.� It is� Wikipedia`s, and every Economics 101 class in the world. NBER`s def is quoted as being more "general".

    Wik= a recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year.

    And the simple fact is:� We have yet to experience ONE negative growth quarter, let alone TWO.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from bubbles-tms. Show bubbles-tms's posts

    Recession Hype= Campaign Tactic?

    ��� From the WSJ on 3/13:

    Although the classic definition of recession is two consecutivequarters of declines in the gross domestic product, Stephen Stanley ofRBS Greenwich Capital pointed out that the National Bureau of EconomicResearch, the nonpartisan organization that is the official arbiter ofrecessions, doesn't always strictly follow that definition. "If you goback to the 2001 recession, there was only one negative GDP quarter,and there might not even be one negative quarter in this recession," hesaid

    From the same article, 36 of the 51 economists polled by the Journal opined that we were in a recession.� Keep in mind, this is from the WSJ and they most likely are polling economists with a conservative bent.

    Any way you cut it, the economy is in a tough spot.� The middle / working class is being squeezed by stagnant wages and drastic increases in energy, food, education and medical costs.� The fed has probably reached the point of diminishing returns with respect to monetary policy.� The Yen and Euro are both up 18% against the dollar over a year ago.�

    Even thought some of us might be doing very well now, the bifurcation of the economy can't go on forever.� To turn a phrase from JFK, a lowering tide drops all boats.

    I'm no fan of Mathusian predictions, but our economy is in a precarious position.� A few false steps and things could get really, really ugly.





     

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