Numbers look great for Obama

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    Numbers look great for Obama

    This is a great analysis......Tuesday looks good for the President

    Real Clear Politics (RCP) consistently has been the "go-to" source for accurate averaged daily polling data for both FOXNEWS and NBCNEWS. With only 78 hours left to go in the 2012 presidential campaign, RCP continues to report Obama leading in eight of their 11 toss-up states with Romney leading in three.

    In descending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Obama, followed in ascending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Romney, here are the published averaged numbers from RCP as of 5:00pm EST together with the most recent FiveThirtyEight election night probabilities of victory for either candidate:

    In WISCONSIN, with 10 electoral votes, Obama's lead has jumped to 5.0%, up from 3.7% Thursday afternoon. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 91.2% chance of victory here, up by a significant 5.5% from Tuesday.

    In PENNSYLVANIA, with 20 electoral votes, Obama's lead is holding at 4.6%. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 96.2% chance of victory here, up by 2.0% from Tuesday.

    In MICHIGAN, with 16 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 3.5%, up from 3.0% Thursday.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 98.6% chance of victory here, up by a slight 0.5% from Tuesday.

    In NEVADA, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.7%, up from 2.4% early Thursday.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 87.7% chance of victory here, up by an astonishing 8.0% from Tuesday.

    In OHIO, with 18 electoral votes, Obama's lead has settled today at 2.4%, up from Thursday's 2.3%.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 80.5% chance of victory here, up by a substantial 7.2% from Tuesday.

    In IOWA, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.0%, up from 1.3% Thursday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 78.8% chance of victory here, up by a significant 4.9% from Tuesday.

    In NEW HAMPSHIRE, with 4 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.0%, up from 1.3% Thursday.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 77.8% chance of victory here, up by a substantial 7.5% from Tuesday.

    In COLORADO, with 9 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 1.0%, up from 0.9% Thursday.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 64.6% chance of victory here, up by an astonishing 9.2% from Tuesday.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------

    In VIRGINIA, with 13 electoral votes, Romney's lead is holding at 0.5%. Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight increased Obama's chance of victory here, and NOT Romney's, to 66.4%, up by an astonishing 8.2% from Tuesday.

    In FLORIDA, with 29 electoral votes, Romney's lead is holding at 1.2%. However, FiveThirtyEight currently gives Romney a 55.1% chance of victory here, surprisingly down by an astonishing 9.6% from Tuesday. It should be noted that RCP's average in this state has been inflated by a recent outlier finding in favor of Romney from Gravis Marketing, a polling firm funded in large part by BAIN Capital.

    In NORTH CAROLINA, with 15 electoral votes, Romney's lead is holding at 3.8%. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Romney an 79.9% chance of victory here, down by a slight 0.3% from Wednesday.

    So...

    In order for Obama to win re-election the least complex route would be through maintaining his current lead in the five toss-up states where his existing margins are widest (Wisconsin at 5.0%, Pennsylvania at 4.6%, Michigan at 3.5%, Nevada at 2.7%, and Ohio at 2.4%). Doing so would bring his electoral vote total on Election Day to 271. In this scenario, Obama could still surpass 270 while failing to hold Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado.

    However, should Obama fail to hold Ohio, the loss could effectively be neutralized by any of the following combination of wins from states where FiveThirtyEight is currently forecasting Obama victories:

    Path #1: Obama loses Ohio but wins the remaining three states where he currently leads, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado resulting in 272 electoral votes.

    Path #2: Obama loses Ohio but steals Virginia while also taking New Hampshire, Iowa, OR Colorado resulting in 270, 272, or 275 electoral votes, respectively.

    Interestingly, with Romney's lead having diminished significantly in Florida over the past two weeks and with Hurricane Sandy forcefully highlighting the stark contrast between the candidates regarding the value and necessity if not the mere existence of FEMA in a state which has perhaps the greatest dependence on federal storm relief efforts in the nation, a 3rd path has now emerged which could provide for some interesting election night television:

    Path #3: Obama comes from behind to win Florida. This scenario would require only that Obama win the three states in which his present leads are widest (Wisconsin at 5.0%, Pennsylvania at 4.6%, and Michigan at 3.5%), resulting in 276 electoral votes.

    For Romney to unseat Obama, he not only would have to hold the three states in which he presently leads, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia bringing his electoral vote total to 248, but also steal victories in both Colorado where Obama's lead rose yesterday to 0.9% and in either Ohio (where Obama's lead has settled today at 2.4%, up from Thursday's 2.3%) or in Pennsylvania (where Romney's campaign suggested earlier this week that Obama's significant lead of 4.6% may be vulnerable). By so doing, Romney's electoral vote total would reach 275 or 277, respectively.

    Romney's Pennsylvania strategy, however, may be a highly-marketed feint designed to counter Obama's anticipated re-allocation of campaign resources to a quantifiably softening political landscape in Florida.

    In any event, should Romney fail to steal either Ohio or Pennsylvania he could overcome this shortfall by capturing the four other states in which Obama's current leads are smallest (Colorado at 1.0%, New Hampshire at 2.0%, Iowa at 2.0%, and Nevada at 2.7%) resulting in an electoral vote total of 273.

    FiveThirtyEight this morning estimates the chance of Election Day victory for each candidate as follows: Obama 80.9% (up from Wednesday's 79.0%) and Romney 19.1% (down from Wednesday's 21.0%).

    FiveThirtyEight now also projects that on Election Day the final electoral tally will be as follows: Obama 303 (up by 4 from Wednesday's 299) and Romney 235 (down by 4 from Wednesday's 239).

    Lastly, although it makes no difference in terms of the final result which can only be determined by the Electoral College, FiveThirtyEight currently predicts a national popular vote distribution on Election Day as follows: Obama 50.5% (up from Wednesday's 50.4%) and Romney 48.4% (down from yesterday's 48.6%).

    With only 78 hours of campaigning left, and with this morning's published October jobs report playing to predictably mixed reviews (economy adding more jobs than expected; unemployment rate ticking up one tenth of one percent to 7.9%), holdout voters may now be left to nothing more than the proverbial 'feel in their gut' as Tuesday approaches.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sistersledge. Show Sistersledge's posts

    Re: Numbers look great for Obama

    In response to dcr400m's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    This is a great analysis......Tuesday looks good for the President

    Real Clear Politics (RCP) consistently has been the "go-to" source for accurate averaged daily polling data for both FOXNEWS and NBCNEWS. With only 78 hours left to go in the 2012 presidential campaign, RCP continues to report Obama leading in eight of their 11 toss-up states with Romney leading in three.

    In descending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Obama, followed in ascending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Romney, here are the published averaged numbers from RCP as of 5:00pm EST together with the most recent FiveThirtyEight election night probabilities of victory for either candidate:

    In WISCONSIN, with 10 electoral votes, Obama's lead has jumped to 5.0%, up from 3.7% Thursday afternoon. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 91.2% chance of victory here, up by a significant 5.5% from Tuesday.

    In PENNSYLVANIA, with 20 electoral votes, Obama's lead is holding at 4.6%. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 96.2% chance of victory here, up by 2.0% from Tuesday.

    In MICHIGAN, with 16 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 3.5%, up from 3.0% Thursday.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 98.6% chance of victory here, up by a slight 0.5% from Tuesday.

    In NEVADA, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.7%, up from 2.4% early Thursday.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 87.7% chance of victory here, up by an astonishing 8.0% from Tuesday.

    In OHIO, with 18 electoral votes, Obama's lead has settled today at 2.4%, up from Thursday's 2.3%.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 80.5% chance of victory here, up by a substantial 7.2% from Tuesday.

    In IOWA, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.0%, up from 1.3% Thursday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 78.8% chance of victory here, up by a significant 4.9% from Tuesday.

    In NEW HAMPSHIRE, with 4 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.0%, up from 1.3% Thursday.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 77.8% chance of victory here, up by a substantial 7.5% from Tuesday.

    In COLORADO, with 9 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 1.0%, up from 0.9% Thursday.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 64.6% chance of victory here, up by an astonishing 9.2% from Tuesday.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------

    In VIRGINIA, with 13 electoral votes, Romney's lead is holding at 0.5%. Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight increased Obama's chance of victory here, and NOT Romney's, to 66.4%, up by an astonishing 8.2% from Tuesday.

    In FLORIDA, with 29 electoral votes, Romney's lead is holding at 1.2%. However, FiveThirtyEight currently gives Romney a 55.1% chance of victory here, surprisingly down by an astonishing 9.6% from Tuesday. It should be noted that RCP's average in this state has been inflated by a recent outlier finding in favor of Romney from Gravis Marketing, a polling firm funded in large part by BAIN Capital.

    In NORTH CAROLINA, with 15 electoral votes, Romney's lead is holding at 3.8%. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Romney an 79.9% chance of victory here, down by a slight 0.3% from Wednesday.

    So...

    In order for Obama to win re-election the least complex route would be through maintaining his current lead in the five toss-up states where his existing margins are widest (Wisconsin at 5.0%, Pennsylvania at 4.6%, Michigan at 3.5%, Nevada at 2.7%, and Ohio at 2.4%). Doing so would bring his electoral vote total on Election Day to 271. In this scenario, Obama could still surpass 270 while failing to hold Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado.

    However, should Obama fail to hold Ohio, the loss could effectively be neutralized by any of the following combination of wins from states where FiveThirtyEight is currently forecasting Obama victories:

    Path #1: Obama loses Ohio but wins the remaining three states where he currently leads, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado resulting in 272 electoral votes.

    Path #2: Obama loses Ohio but steals Virginia while also taking New Hampshire, Iowa, OR Colorado resulting in 270, 272, or 275 electoral votes, respectively.

    Interestingly, with Romney's lead having diminished significantly in Florida over the past two weeks and with Hurricane Sandy forcefully highlighting the stark contrast between the candidates regarding the value and necessity if not the mere existence of FEMA in a state which has perhaps the greatest dependence on federal storm relief efforts in the nation, a 3rd path has now emerged which could provide for some interesting election night television:

    Path #3: Obama comes from behind to win Florida. This scenario would require only that Obama win the three states in which his present leads are widest (Wisconsin at 5.0%, Pennsylvania at 4.6%, and Michigan at 3.5%), resulting in 276 electoral votes.

    For Romney to unseat Obama, he not only would have to hold the three states in which he presently leads, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia bringing his electoral vote total to 248, but also steal victories in both Colorado where Obama's lead rose yesterday to 0.9% and in either Ohio (where Obama's lead has settled today at 2.4%, up from Thursday's 2.3%) or in Pennsylvania (where Romney's campaign suggested earlier this week that Obama's significant lead of 4.6% may be vulnerable). By so doing, Romney's electoral vote total would reach 275 or 277, respectively.

    Romney's Pennsylvania strategy, however, may be a highly-marketed feint designed to counter Obama's anticipated re-allocation of campaign resources to a quantifiably softening political landscape in Florida.

    In any event, should Romney fail to steal either Ohio or Pennsylvania he could overcome this shortfall by capturing the four other states in which Obama's current leads are smallest (Colorado at 1.0%, New Hampshire at 2.0%, Iowa at 2.0%, and Nevada at 2.7%) resulting in an electoral vote total of 273.

    FiveThirtyEight this morning estimates the chance of Election Day victory for each candidate as follows: Obama 80.9% (up from Wednesday's 79.0%) and Romney 19.1% (down from Wednesday's 21.0%).

    FiveThirtyEight now also projects that on Election Day the final electoral tally will be as follows: Obama 303 (up by 4 from Wednesday's 299) and Romney 235 (down by 4 from Wednesday's 239).

    Lastly, although it makes no difference in terms of the final result which can only be determined by the Electoral College, FiveThirtyEight currently predicts a national popular vote distribution on Election Day as follows: Obama 50.5% (up from Wednesday's 50.4%) and Romney 48.4% (down from yesterday's 48.6%).

    With only 78 hours of campaigning left, and with this morning's published October jobs report playing to predictably mixed reviews (economy adding more jobs than expected; unemployment rate ticking up one tenth of one percent to 7.9%), holdout voters may now be left to nothing more than the proverbial 'feel in their gut' as Tuesday approaches.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    It ain't over  till the fat lady sings !

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThatWasMe. Show ThatWasMe's posts

    Re: Numbers look great for Obama

    In response to dcr400m's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    This is a great analysis......Tuesday looks good for the President

    Real Clear Politics (RCP) consistently has been the "go-to" source for accurate averaged daily polling data for both FOXNEWS and NBCNEWS. With only 78 hours left to go in the 2012 presidential campaign, RCP continues to report Obama leading in eight of their 11 toss-up states with Romney leading in three.

    In descending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Obama, followed in ascending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Romney, here are the published averaged numbers from RCP as of 5:00pm EST together with the most recent FiveThirtyEight election night probabilities of victory for either candidate:

    In WISCONSIN, with 10 electoral votes, Obama's lead has jumped to 5.0%, up from 3.7% Thursday afternoon. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 91.2% chance of victory here, up by a significant 5.5% from Tuesday.

    In PENNSYLVANIA, with 20 electoral votes, Obama's lead is holding at 4.6%. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 96.2% chance of victory here, up by 2.0% from Tuesday.

    In MICHIGAN, with 16 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 3.5%, up from 3.0% Thursday.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 98.6% chance of victory here, up by a slight 0.5% from Tuesday.

    In NEVADA, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.7%, up from 2.4% early Thursday.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 87.7% chance of victory here, up by an astonishing 8.0% from Tuesday.

    In OHIO, with 18 electoral votes, Obama's lead has settled today at 2.4%, up from Thursday's 2.3%.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 80.5% chance of victory here, up by a substantial 7.2% from Tuesday.

    In IOWA, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.0%, up from 1.3% Thursday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 78.8% chance of victory here, up by a significant 4.9% from Tuesday.

    In NEW HAMPSHIRE, with 4 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.0%, up from 1.3% Thursday.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 77.8% chance of victory here, up by a substantial 7.5% from Tuesday.

    In COLORADO, with 9 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 1.0%, up from 0.9% Thursday.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 64.6% chance of victory here, up by an astonishing 9.2% from Tuesday.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------

    In VIRGINIA, with 13 electoral votes, Romney's lead is holding at 0.5%. Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight increased Obama's chance of victory here, and NOT Romney's, to 66.4%, up by an astonishing 8.2% from Tuesday.

    In FLORIDA, with 29 electoral votes, Romney's lead is holding at 1.2%. However, FiveThirtyEight currently gives Romney a 55.1% chance of victory here, surprisingly down by an astonishing 9.6% from Tuesday. It should be noted that RCP's average in this state has been inflated by a recent outlier finding in favor of Romney from Gravis Marketing, a polling firm funded in large part by BAIN Capital.

    In NORTH CAROLINA, with 15 electoral votes, Romney's lead is holding at 3.8%. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Romney an 79.9% chance of victory here, down by a slight 0.3% from Wednesday.

    So...

    In order for Obama to win re-election the least complex route would be through maintaining his current lead in the five toss-up states where his existing margins are widest (Wisconsin at 5.0%, Pennsylvania at 4.6%, Michigan at 3.5%, Nevada at 2.7%, and Ohio at 2.4%). Doing so would bring his electoral vote total on Election Day to 271. In this scenario, Obama could still surpass 270 while failing to hold Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado.

    However, should Obama fail to hold Ohio, the loss could effectively be neutralized by any of the following combination of wins from states where FiveThirtyEight is currently forecasting Obama victories:

    Path #1: Obama loses Ohio but wins the remaining three states where he currently leads, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado resulting in 272 electoral votes.

    Path #2: Obama loses Ohio but steals Virginia while also taking New Hampshire, Iowa, OR Colorado resulting in 270, 272, or 275 electoral votes, respectively.

    Interestingly, with Romney's lead having diminished significantly in Florida over the past two weeks and with Hurricane Sandy forcefully highlighting the stark contrast between the candidates regarding the value and necessity if not the mere existence of FEMA in a state which has perhaps the greatest dependence on federal storm relief efforts in the nation, a 3rd path has now emerged which could provide for some interesting election night television:

    Path #3: Obama comes from behind to win Florida. This scenario would require only that Obama win the three states in which his present leads are widest (Wisconsin at 5.0%, Pennsylvania at 4.6%, and Michigan at 3.5%), resulting in 276 electoral votes.

    For Romney to unseat Obama, he not only would have to hold the three states in which he presently leads, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia bringing his electoral vote total to 248, but also steal victories in both Colorado where Obama's lead rose yesterday to 0.9% and in either Ohio (where Obama's lead has settled today at 2.4%, up from Thursday's 2.3%) or in Pennsylvania (where Romney's campaign suggested earlier this week that Obama's significant lead of 4.6% may be vulnerable). By so doing, Romney's electoral vote total would reach 275 or 277, respectively.

    Romney's Pennsylvania strategy, however, may be a highly-marketed feint designed to counter Obama's anticipated re-allocation of campaign resources to a quantifiably softening political landscape in Florida.

    In any event, should Romney fail to steal either Ohio or Pennsylvania he could overcome this shortfall by capturing the four other states in which Obama's current leads are smallest (Colorado at 1.0%, New Hampshire at 2.0%, Iowa at 2.0%, and Nevada at 2.7%) resulting in an electoral vote total of 273.

    FiveThirtyEight this morning estimates the chance of Election Day victory for each candidate as follows: Obama 80.9% (up from Wednesday's 79.0%) and Romney 19.1% (down from Wednesday's 21.0%).

    FiveThirtyEight now also projects that on Election Day the final electoral tally will be as follows: Obama 303 (up by 4 from Wednesday's 299) and Romney 235 (down by 4 from Wednesday's 239).

    Lastly, although it makes no difference in terms of the final result which can only be determined by the Electoral College, FiveThirtyEight currently predicts a national popular vote distribution on Election Day as follows: Obama 50.5% (up from Wednesday's 50.4%) and Romney 48.4% (down from yesterday's 48.6%).

    With only 78 hours of campaigning left, and with this morning's published October jobs report playing to predictably mixed reviews (economy adding more jobs than expected; unemployment rate ticking up one tenth of one percent to 7.9%), holdout voters may now be left to nothing more than the proverbial 'feel in their gut' as Tuesday approaches.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    ha ha ha

    pass the crack pipe.

     
  4. This post has been removed.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThatWasMe. Show ThatWasMe's posts

    Re: Numbers look great for Obama

    In response to TFefio's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Meanwhile Obama is asking for private support to help the hurricane victims because the government can't do it. If he gets in he will make gas, food and goods even harder to get with tougher restrictions and these are the fools above that will try to help him do it. 

    [/QUOTE]


    I wonder if they'll call empty chair racist because the clean up and help for ny and nj has been sloooow.

    Drivers Waiting 6 Hours For Gas in NYC...
    Tempers Rise in Wake of Storm...
    'Finding bodies left and right'...
    Restaurant, hotel prices skyrocket...
    CHUCK SCHUMER CONFRONTED: 'We Are Gonna Die!'
    CRAIGSLIST: $15 a gallon...
    Utility workers pelted with eggs...
    Misery...
    'We have nothing'...
    Residents Furious RED CROSS Offering Cookies & Hot Chocolate, Not Blankets Or Clothes...
    Jet Fuel Supply Fast Becoming Concern At Airports...
    Staten Islanders Plead for Help: 'We Need Food'...
    'Please don't leave us'...
    VIDEO: Stranded New Yorkers Defecating in Apartment Buildings...
    DIRE...
    NJ counties enact 70s style gas rationing... Developing...

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThatWasMe. Show ThatWasMe's posts

    Re: Numbers look great for Obama

    In response to dcr400m's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    This is a great analysis......Tuesday looks good for the President

    Real Clear Politics (RCP) consistently has been the "go-to" source for accurate averaged daily polling data for both FOXNEWS and NBCNEWS. With only 78 hours left to go in the 2012 presidential campaign, RCP continues to report Obama leading in eight of their 11 toss-up states with Romney leading in three.

    In descending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Obama, followed in ascending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Romney, here are the published averaged numbers from RCP as of 5:00pm EST together with the most recent FiveThirtyEight election night probabilities of victory for either candidate:

    In WISCONSIN, with 10 electoral votes, Obama's lead has jumped to 5.0%, up from 3.7% Thursday afternoon. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 91.2% chance of victory here, up by a significant 5.5% from Tuesday.

    In PENNSYLVANIA, with 20 electoral votes, Obama's lead is holding at 4.6%. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 96.2% chance of victory here, up by 2.0% from Tuesday.

    In MICHIGAN, with 16 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 3.5%, up from 3.0% Thursday.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 98.6% chance of victory here, up by a slight 0.5% from Tuesday.

    In NEVADA, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.7%, up from 2.4% early Thursday.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 87.7% chance of victory here, up by an astonishing 8.0% from Tuesday.

    In OHIO, with 18 electoral votes, Obama's lead has settled today at 2.4%, up from Thursday's 2.3%.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 80.5% chance of victory here, up by a substantial 7.2% from Tuesday.

    In IOWA, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.0%, up from 1.3% Thursday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 78.8% chance of victory here, up by a significant 4.9% from Tuesday.

    In NEW HAMPSHIRE, with 4 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.0%, up from 1.3% Thursday.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 77.8% chance of victory here, up by a substantial 7.5% from Tuesday.

    In COLORADO, with 9 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 1.0%, up from 0.9% Thursday.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 64.6% chance of victory here, up by an astonishing 9.2% from Tuesday.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------

    In VIRGINIA, with 13 electoral votes, Romney's lead is holding at 0.5%. Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight increased Obama's chance of victory here, and NOT Romney's, to 66.4%, up by an astonishing 8.2% from Tuesday.

    In FLORIDA, with 29 electoral votes, Romney's lead is holding at 1.2%. However, FiveThirtyEight currently gives Romney a 55.1% chance of victory here, surprisingly down by an astonishing 9.6% from Tuesday. It should be noted that RCP's average in this state has been inflated by a recent outlier finding in favor of Romney from Gravis Marketing, a polling firm funded in large part by BAIN Capital.

    In NORTH CAROLINA, with 15 electoral votes, Romney's lead is holding at 3.8%. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Romney an 79.9% chance of victory here, down by a slight 0.3% from Wednesday.

    So...

    In order for Obama to win re-election the least complex route would be through maintaining his current lead in the five toss-up states where his existing margins are widest (Wisconsin at 5.0%, Pennsylvania at 4.6%, Michigan at 3.5%, Nevada at 2.7%, and Ohio at 2.4%). Doing so would bring his electoral vote total on Election Day to 271. In this scenario, Obama could still surpass 270 while failing to hold Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado.

    However, should Obama fail to hold Ohio, the loss could effectively be neutralized by any of the following combination of wins from states where FiveThirtyEight is currently forecasting Obama victories:

    Path #1: Obama loses Ohio but wins the remaining three states where he currently leads, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado resulting in 272 electoral votes.

    Path #2: Obama loses Ohio but steals Virginia while also taking New Hampshire, Iowa, OR Colorado resulting in 270, 272, or 275 electoral votes, respectively.

    Interestingly, with Romney's lead having diminished significantly in Florida over the past two weeks and with Hurricane Sandy forcefully highlighting the stark contrast between the candidates regarding the value and necessity if not the mere existence of FEMA in a state which has perhaps the greatest dependence on federal storm relief efforts in the nation, a 3rd path has now emerged which could provide for some interesting election night television:

    Path #3: Obama comes from behind to win Florida. This scenario would require only that Obama win the three states in which his present leads are widest (Wisconsin at 5.0%, Pennsylvania at 4.6%, and Michigan at 3.5%), resulting in 276 electoral votes.

    For Romney to unseat Obama, he not only would have to hold the three states in which he presently leads, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia bringing his electoral vote total to 248, but also steal victories in both Colorado where Obama's lead rose yesterday to 0.9% and in either Ohio (where Obama's lead has settled today at 2.4%, up from Thursday's 2.3%) or in Pennsylvania (where Romney's campaign suggested earlier this week that Obama's significant lead of 4.6% may be vulnerable). By so doing, Romney's electoral vote total would reach 275 or 277, respectively.

    Romney's Pennsylvania strategy, however, may be a highly-marketed feint designed to counter Obama's anticipated re-allocation of campaign resources to a quantifiably softening political landscape in Florida.

    In any event, should Romney fail to steal either Ohio or Pennsylvania he could overcome this shortfall by capturing the four other states in which Obama's current leads are smallest (Colorado at 1.0%, New Hampshire at 2.0%, Iowa at 2.0%, and Nevada at 2.7%) resulting in an electoral vote total of 273.

    FiveThirtyEight this morning estimates the chance of Election Day victory for each candidate as follows: Obama 80.9% (up from Wednesday's 79.0%) and Romney 19.1% (down from Wednesday's 21.0%).

    FiveThirtyEight now also projects that on Election Day the final electoral tally will be as follows: Obama 303 (up by 4 from Wednesday's 299) and Romney 235 (down by 4 from Wednesday's 239).

    Lastly, although it makes no difference in terms of the final result which can only be determined by the Electoral College, FiveThirtyEight currently predicts a national popular vote distribution on Election Day as follows: Obama 50.5% (up from Wednesday's 50.4%) and Romney 48.4% (down from yesterday's 48.6%).

    With only 78 hours of campaigning left, and with this morning's published October jobs report playing to predictably mixed reviews (economy adding more jobs than expected; unemployment rate ticking up one tenth of one percent to 7.9%), holdout voters may now be left to nothing more than the proverbial 'feel in their gut' as Tuesday approaches.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZ7ZeHA1GHM

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThatWasMe. Show ThatWasMe's posts

    Re: Numbers look great for Obama

    30,000 turn out in Ohio for Romney...

    Obama plays for just 2,800...

     
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