Unemployment up to 7.9% sucks!!

Seriously - the faint of heart would not visit this forum!

I can see jmel's point - if overall government spending increased, how do you point to a decrease in military spending as a contributing factor.

On the other hand, the fiscal cliff drama did seem to impact investment, and it's not outrageous to think that Sandy had a pretty significant impact on consumer spending, which was still up 2.2%, and home sales.

I think the first quarter numbers will settle this debate - if the liberals are right, there will be a significant correction.  If the conservatives are right, we will be in the midst of another recession.  To be continued ...

In response to slomag's comment:

Seriously - the faint of heart would not visit this forum!

I can see jmel's point - if overall government spending increased, how do you point to a decrease in military spending as a contributing factor.

On the other hand, the fiscal cliff drama did seem to impact investment, and it's not outrageous to think that Sandy had a pretty significant impact on consumer spending, which was still up 2.2%, and home sales.

I think the first quarter numbers will settle this debate - if the liberals are right, there will be a significant correction.  If the conservatives are right, we will be in the midst of another recession.  To be continued ...

Thanks Slomag.  Don`t mean to be a jerk, it`s just right in our face.  Treasury, CBO, BEA, all reports are spending UP qtr on qtr and year on year.  To try and put together a math equation based on MSNBC and Nacy Pelosi talking points, (which is what 12AM is doing) is just wrong.

You are absolutely correct.  If there are adjustments in Q1 that get us out of this mess, it will be great.  My fear, ........no way.  26 million out of work, unemployment went UP to 7.9% today (real NLRB @ 14.4%), massive layoffs in tech (and I mean 100`s of thousands of people), and costs of obamacare and no knowledge of where taxes are going, seem to point towards negative GDP in Q1 too, hence..........recession.  We`re already in a recession. Heck, we never came out of recession.  Ask anyone that works every day and is trying to support a family.

I respect your opinion.............if Nov 6th was tomorrow, would you still be voting for this sad excuse for a leader?

In response to jmel's comment:

In response to slomag's comment:

Seriously - the faint of heart would not visit this forum!

I can see jmel's point - if overall government spending increased, how do you point to a decrease in military spending as a contributing factor.

On the other hand, the fiscal cliff drama did seem to impact investment, and it's not outrageous to think that Sandy had a pretty significant impact on consumer spending, which was still up 2.2%, and home sales.

I think the first quarter numbers will settle this debate - if the liberals are right, there will be a significant correction.  If the conservatives are right, we will be in the midst of another recession.  To be continued ...

Thanks Slomag.  Don`t mean to be a jerk, it`s just right in our face.  Treasury, CBO, BEA, all reports are spending UP qtr on qtr and year on year.  To try and put together a math equation based on MSNBC and Nacy Pelosi talking points, (which is what 12AM is doing) is just wrong.

You are absolutely correct.  If there are adjustments in Q1 that get us out of this mess, it will be great.  My fear, ........no way.  26 million out of work, unemployment went UP to 7.9% today (real NLRB @ 14.4%), massive layoffs in tech (and I mean 100`s of thousands of people), and costs of obamacare and no knowledge of where taxes are going, seem to point towards negative GDP in Q1 too, hence..........recession.  We`re already in a recession. Heck, we never came out of recession.  Ask anyone that works every day and is trying to support a family.

I respect your opinion.............if Nov 6th was tomorrow, would you still be voting for this sad excuse for a leader?

Yeah, of course - I'm better off than I was four years ago :)

The DOW Jones closed over 14K today for the first time in six years.  Many economists, including conservatives like Kudlow are predicting 2013 as a big rebound for housing.

I'm optimistic, and it's rare that we have a debate over something quantifiable - I'll be back in 3 months for either bragging rights or a bowl of crow.

In response to airborne-rgr's comment:

In response to slomag's comment:

Seriously - the faint of heart would not visit this forum!

I can see jmel's point - if overall government spending increased, how do you point to a decrease in military spending as a contributing factor.

On the other hand, the fiscal cliff drama did seem to impact investment, and it's not outrageous to think that Sandy had a pretty significant impact on consumer spending, which was still up 2.2%, and home sales.

I think the first quarter numbers will settle this debate - if the liberals are right, there will be a significant correction.  If the conservatives are right, we will be in the midst of another recession.  To be continued ...

Ummm, no. jmook doesn't know what he's talking about.

The thread is about GDP spending. Not all gov't spending is a component of GDP.

Foreign aid, interest payments on the debt etc are all 'spending' but are decidely NOT a part of GDP spending.

jmook relies on this ditty;

According to monthly spending data from the Treasury Dept., total federal spending - which includes transfer payments and other federal outlays not counted by the BEA - increased by $98 billion in Q4 compared with Q3. And spending was up $31 billion when compared with Q4 2011.

There's a reason why BEA doesn't include "transfer payments and other federal outlays" in it's calculations. Because they are NOT a compnent of GDP.

G (government spending as part of GDP) is the sum of government expenditures on final goods and services. It includes salaries of public servants, purchase of weapons for the military, and any investment expenditure by a government. It does not include any transfer payments, such as social security, unemployment benefits or interest payments.

The spending that Treasury cites is just spending and not a part of GDP calculations. If you notice jmook completely ignores the GDP aspect of the argument because not all spending is GDP.

That is why overall GDP dropped, because spending that is calculated in GDP dropped.

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced
by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual
rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 (that is, from the third
quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released
by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased
3.1 percent.

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment
decreased 15.0 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of
9.5 percent in the third. National defense decreased 22.2 percent, in contrast
to an increase of 12.9 percent. Nondefense increased 1.4 percent, compared
with an increase of 3.0 percent. Real state and local government consumption
expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.7 percent, in contrast to an
increase of 0.3 percent.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

If you want to argue about GDP spending then you have to only talk about that spending which is a component of the GDP.

It makes no sense to compare apples and oranges and try to arrive at a logical conclusion. It's impossible. Which is why the wingnuts are always wrong on their arguments. They try to conflate two distinct issues that have no relation to each other.

That`s right slomag.  If you want to discuss the FACT that government spending was UP quarter on quarter and year on year, you have to take out all the spending that angryman-airborne doesn`t want, to strengthen his assinine case.  You`ve heard of "Ohm`s Law"?  Now we have "angryman`s law".  The CBO, the BEA, and the Treasury`s factual data is wrong (sigh).

Spending was UP.  GDP went negative and it`s only the beginning.  We are in a recesssion and people that pay for the freeloaders know it.

Airborne-angry would never understand as he`s a taker. 

In response to tvoter's comment:

In response to WhatDoYouWantNow's comment:

Running the country? No.

Scaring the markets by holding things like the debt ceiling hostage? Yes. 

So you think the congress should just raise the debt ceiling every year and not try to open debate to find ways for any fiscal balance?

Its their JOB to try and find fiscal balance!! You know this but, you cant get off party talking points huh?

Negotiating 'fiscal balance' is supposed to happen BEFORE you spend the money, not after the bill comes.

Threatening to hold the country hostage because the wingnuts don't want to pay the bills they've racked up is the height of irresponsibility.

Wingnuts just can't comprehend macro economics. Heck, they can't even comprehend personal responsibility.

If you feel you have too much credit card debt, you do not resolve it by contesting all the charges.