Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

    Seriously - the faint of heart would not visit this forum!

    I can see jmel's point - if overall government spending increased, how do you point to a decrease in military spending as a contributing factor.

    On the other hand, the fiscal cliff drama did seem to impact investment, and it's not outrageous to think that Sandy had a pretty significant impact on consumer spending, which was still up 2.2%, and home sales.

    I think the first quarter numbers will settle this debate - if the liberals are right, there will be a significant correction.  If the conservatives are right, we will be in the midst of another recession.  To be continued ...

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from skeeter20. Show skeeter20's posts

    Re: Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

    In response to slomag's comment:

    Seriously - the faint of heart would not visit this forum!

    I can see jmel's point - if overall government spending increased, how do you point to a decrease in military spending as a contributing factor.

    On the other hand, the fiscal cliff drama did seem to impact investment, and it's not outrageous to think that Sandy had a pretty significant impact on consumer spending, which was still up 2.2%, and home sales.

    I think the first quarter numbers will settle this debate - if the liberals are right, there will be a significant correction.  If the conservatives are right, we will be in the midst of another recession.  To be continued ...



    Good post.

     

    One hting I would add to the list is that long term borrowing needs to be factored out of the economy.  It is a liability/assets thing, just to keep it simple.  There is at least a trillion dollars of overstated growth.

     
  3. This post has been removed.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

    In response to jmel's comment:

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

    Seriously - the faint of heart would not visit this forum!

    I can see jmel's point - if overall government spending increased, how do you point to a decrease in military spending as a contributing factor.

    On the other hand, the fiscal cliff drama did seem to impact investment, and it's not outrageous to think that Sandy had a pretty significant impact on consumer spending, which was still up 2.2%, and home sales.

    I think the first quarter numbers will settle this debate - if the liberals are right, there will be a significant correction.  If the conservatives are right, we will be in the midst of another recession.  To be continued ...

     




     

    Thanks Slomag.  Don`t mean to be a jerk, it`s just right in our face.  Treasury, CBO, BEA, all reports are spending UP qtr on qtr and year on year.  To try and put together a math equation based on MSNBC and Nacy Pelosi talking points, (which is what 12AM is doing) is just wrong.

    You are absolutely correct.  If there are adjustments in Q1 that get us out of this mess, it will be great.  My fear, ........no way.  26 million out of work, unemployment went UP to 7.9% today (real NLRB @ 14.4%), massive layoffs in tech (and I mean 100`s of thousands of people), and costs of obamacare and no knowledge of where taxes are going, seem to point towards negative GDP in Q1 too, hence..........recession.  We`re already in a recession. Heck, we never came out of recession.  Ask anyone that works every day and is trying to support a family.

    I respect your opinion.............if Nov 6th was tomorrow, would you still be voting for this sad excuse for a leader?

     




    Yeah, of course - I'm better off than I was four years ago :)

    The DOW Jones closed over 14K today for the first time in six years.  Many economists, including conservatives like Kudlow are predicting 2013 as a big rebound for housing.

    I'm optimistic, and it's rare that we have a debate over something quantifiable - I'll be back in 3 months for either bragging rights or a bowl of crow.

     
  5. This post has been removed.

     
  6. This post has been removed.

     
  7. This post has been removed.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from tacobreath. Show tacobreath's posts

    Re: Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

    In response to airborne-rgr's comment:

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

    Seriously - the faint of heart would not visit this forum!

    I can see jmel's point - if overall government spending increased, how do you point to a decrease in military spending as a contributing factor.

    On the other hand, the fiscal cliff drama did seem to impact investment, and it's not outrageous to think that Sandy had a pretty significant impact on consumer spending, which was still up 2.2%, and home sales.

    I think the first quarter numbers will settle this debate - if the liberals are right, there will be a significant correction.  If the conservatives are right, we will be in the midst of another recession.  To be continued ...

     

     




     

     

    Ummm, no. jmook doesn't know what he's talking about.

    The thread is about GDP spending. Not all gov't spending is a component of GDP.

    Foreign aid, interest payments on the debt etc are all 'spending' but are decidely NOT a part of GDP spending.

    jmook relies on this ditty;

    According to monthly spending data from the Treasury Dept., total federal spending - which includes transfer payments and other federal outlays not counted by the BEA - increased by $98 billion in Q4 compared with Q3. And spending was up $31 billion when compared with Q4 2011.

     


    There's a reason why BEA doesn't include "transfer payments and other federal outlays" in it's calculations. Because they are NOT a compnent of GDP.

    G (government spending as part of GDP) is the sum of government expenditures on final goods and services. It includes salaries of public servants, purchase of weapons for the military, and any investment expenditure by a government. It does not include any transfer payments, such as social security, unemployment benefits or interest payments.

     

    The spending that Treasury cites is just spending and not a part of GDP calculations. If you notice jmook completely ignores the GDP aspect of the argument because not all spending is GDP.

    That is why overall GDP dropped, because spending that is calculated in GDP dropped.

     

    Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced
    by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual
    rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 (that is, from the third
    quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released
    by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased
    3.1 percent.

    Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment
    decreased 15.0 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of
    9.5 percent in the third. National defense decreased 22.2 percent, in contrast
    to an increase of 12.9 percent. Nondefense increased 1.4 percent, compared
    with an increase of 3.0 percent. Real state and local government consumption
    expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.7 percent, in contrast to an
    increase of 0.3 percent.

    http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

     


    If you want to argue about GDP spending then you have to only talk about that spending which is a component of the GDP.

    It makes no sense to compare apples and oranges and try to arrive at a logical conclusion. It's impossible. Which is why the wingnuts are always wrong on their arguments. They try to conflate two distinct issues that have no relation to each other.



    That`s right slomag.  If you want to discuss the FACT that government spending was UP quarter on quarter and year on year, you have to take out all the spending that angryman-airborne doesn`t want, to strengthen his assinine case.  You`ve heard of "Ohm`s Law"?  Now we have "angryman`s law".  The CBO, the BEA, and the Treasury`s factual data is wrong (sigh).

    Spending was UP.  GDP went negative and it`s only the beginning.  We are in a recesssion and people that pay for the freeloaders know it.

    Airborne-angry would never understand as he`s a taker. 

     
  9. This post has been removed.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from skeeter20. Show skeeter20's posts

    Re: Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

    In response to slomag's comment:

    In response to jmel's comment:

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

    Seriously - the faint of heart would not visit this forum!

    I can see jmel's point - if overall government spending increased, how do you point to a decrease in military spending as a contributing factor.

    On the other hand, the fiscal cliff drama did seem to impact investment, and it's not outrageous to think that Sandy had a pretty significant impact on consumer spending, which was still up 2.2%, and home sales.

    I think the first quarter numbers will settle this debate - if the liberals are right, there will be a significant correction.  If the conservatives are right, we will be in the midst of another recession.  To be continued ...

     




     

    Thanks Slomag.  Don`t mean to be a jerk, it`s just right in our face.  Treasury, CBO, BEA, all reports are spending UP qtr on qtr and year on year.  To try and put together a math equation based on MSNBC and Nacy Pelosi talking points, (which is what 12AM is doing) is just wrong.

    You are absolutely correct.  If there are adjustments in Q1 that get us out of this mess, it will be great.  My fear, ........no way.  26 million out of work, unemployment went UP to 7.9% today (real NLRB @ 14.4%), massive layoffs in tech (and I mean 100`s of thousands of people), and costs of obamacare and no knowledge of where taxes are going, seem to point towards negative GDP in Q1 too, hence..........recession.  We`re already in a recession. Heck, we never came out of recession.  Ask anyone that works every day and is trying to support a family.

    I respect your opinion.............if Nov 6th was tomorrow, would you still be voting for this sad excuse for a leader?

     

     




     

    Yeah, of course - I'm better off than I was four years ago :)

    The DOW Jones closed over 14K today for the first time in six years.  Many economists, including conservatives like Kudlow are predicting 2013 as a big rebound for housing.

    I'm optimistic, and it's rare that we have a debate over something quantifiable - I'll be back in 3 months for either bragging rights or a bowl of crow.




    The rise in the market is largely a result of the drop in value of the dollar.

    Don't be fooled by absolute numbers in a market.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from skeeter20. Show skeeter20's posts

    Re: Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

    In response to tacobreath's comment:

    In response to airborne-rgr's comment:

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

    Seriously - the faint of heart would not visit this forum!

    I can see jmel's point - if overall government spending increased, how do you point to a decrease in military spending as a contributing factor.

    On the other hand, the fiscal cliff drama did seem to impact investment, and it's not outrageous to think that Sandy had a pretty significant impact on consumer spending, which was still up 2.2%, and home sales.

    I think the first quarter numbers will settle this debate - if the liberals are right, there will be a significant correction.  If the conservatives are right, we will be in the midst of another recession.  To be continued ...

     

     




     

     

    Ummm, no. jmook doesn't know what he's talking about.

    The thread is about GDP spending. Not all gov't spending is a component of GDP.

    Foreign aid, interest payments on the debt etc are all 'spending' but are decidely NOT a part of GDP spending.

    jmook relies on this ditty;

    According to monthly spending data from the Treasury Dept., total federal spending - which includes transfer payments and other federal outlays not counted by the BEA - increased by $98 billion in Q4 compared with Q3. And spending was up $31 billion when compared with Q4 2011.

     


    There's a reason why BEA doesn't include "transfer payments and other federal outlays" in it's calculations. Because they are NOT a compnent of GDP.

    G (government spending as part of GDP) is the sum of government expenditures on final goods and services. It includes salaries of public servants, purchase of weapons for the military, and any investment expenditure by a government. It does not include any transfer payments, such as social security, unemployment benefits or interest payments.

     

    The spending that Treasury cites is just spending and not a part of GDP calculations. If you notice jmook completely ignores the GDP aspect of the argument because not all spending is GDP.

    That is why overall GDP dropped, because spending that is calculated in GDP dropped.

     

    Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced
    by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual
    rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 (that is, from the third
    quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released
    by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased
    3.1 percent.

    Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment
    decreased 15.0 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of
    9.5 percent in the third. National defense decreased 22.2 percent, in contrast
    to an increase of 12.9 percent. Nondefense increased 1.4 percent, compared
    with an increase of 3.0 percent. Real state and local government consumption
    expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.7 percent, in contrast to an
    increase of 0.3 percent.

    http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

     


    If you want to argue about GDP spending then you have to only talk about that spending which is a component of the GDP.

    It makes no sense to compare apples and oranges and try to arrive at a logical conclusion. It's impossible. Which is why the wingnuts are always wrong on their arguments. They try to conflate two distinct issues that have no relation to each other.

     



    That`s right slomag.  If you want to discuss the FACT that government spending was UP quarter on quarter and year on year, you have to take out all the spending that angryman-airborne doesn`t want, to strengthen his assinine case.  You`ve heard of "Ohm`s Law"?  Now we have "angryman`s law".  The CBO, the BEA, and the Treasury`s factual data is wrong (sigh).

     

    Spending was UP.  GDP went negative and it`s only the beginning.  We are in a recesssion and people that pay for the freeloaders know it.

    Airborne-angry would never understand as he`s a taker. 




    To be absolutely clear, if you want to really get at the true GDP, the current formula does not take into account governemnt borrowing.  you need to take that out.  When you do thake that out, the size of the economy is about the same, maybe a bit smaller than the size of the economy in the Bush years.

    In other words, the size of the economy has been flat to down for at least five years.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from skeeter20. Show skeeter20's posts

    Re: Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

    In response to airborne-rgr's comment:

    In response to tvoter's comment:

     

    In response to WhatDoYouWantNow's comment:

     

    Running the country? No.

    Scaring the markets by holding things like the debt ceiling hostage? Yes. 

     




    So you think the congress should just raise the debt ceiling every year and not try to open debate to find ways for any fiscal balance?

     

     

    Its their JOB to try and find fiscal balance!! You know this but, you cant get off party talking points huh?

     

     




     

    Negotiating 'fiscal balance' is supposed to happen BEFORE you spend the money, not after the bill comes.

    Threatening to hold the country hostage because the wingnuts don't want to pay the bills they've racked up is the height of irresponsibility.

     

    Wingnuts just can't comprehend macro economics. Heck, they can't even comprehend personal responsibility.



    You are upside down on that argument.

    Spending money you don't have is the hwight of irresponsibility.

     
  13. This post has been removed.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from jedwardnicky. Show jedwardnicky's posts

    Re: Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

    In response to skeeter20's comment:

     

    In response to airborne-rgr's comment:

     

    In response to tvoter's comment:

     

    In response to WhatDoYouWantNow's comment:

     

    Running the country? No.

    Scaring the markets by holding things like the debt ceiling hostage? Yes. 

     




    So you think the congress should just raise the debt ceiling every year and not try to open debate to find ways for any fiscal balance?

     

     

    Its their JOB to try and find fiscal balance!! You know this but, you cant get off party talking points huh?

     

     




     

    Negotiating 'fiscal balance' is supposed to happen BEFORE you spend the money, not after the bill comes.

    Threatening to hold the country hostage because the wingnuts don't want to pay the bills they've racked up is the height of irresponsibility.

     

    Wingnuts just can't comprehend macro economics. Heck, they can't even comprehend personal responsibility.

     



    You are upside down on that argument.

     

    Spending money you don't have is the hwight of irresponsibility.

     



    Kinda like going into two wars and not putting them on the books? And then blaming the next president for accounting for them? Like that? That's the hwight of irony, or hypocrisy, or both.

     

     

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from skeeter20. Show skeeter20's posts

    Re: Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

    In response to WhatDoYouWantNow's comment:

    If you feel you have too much credit card debt, you do not resolve it by contesting all the charges.



    Nor do you say, Oh, Well.  And go on a shopping binge, charging even more.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from skeeter20. Show skeeter20's posts

    Re: Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

    In response to jedwardnicky's comment:

     

    In response to skeeter20's comment:

     

    In response to airborne-rgr's comment:

     

    In response to tvoter's comment:

     

    In response to WhatDoYouWantNow's comment:

     

    Running the country? No.

    Scaring the markets by holding things like the debt ceiling hostage? Yes. 

     




    So you think the congress should just raise the debt ceiling every year and not try to open debate to find ways for any fiscal balance?

     

     

    Its their JOB to try and find fiscal balance!! You know this but, you cant get off party talking points huh?

     

     




     

    Negotiating 'fiscal balance' is supposed to happen BEFORE you spend the money, not after the bill comes.

    Threatening to hold the country hostage because the wingnuts don't want to pay the bills they've racked up is the height of irresponsibility.

     

    Wingnuts just can't comprehend macro economics. Heck, they can't even comprehend personal responsibility.

     



    You are upside down on that argument.

     

    Spending money you don't have is the hwight of irresponsibility.

     



    Kinda like going into two wars and not putting them on the books? And then blaming the next president for accounting for them? Like that? That's the hwight of irony, or hypocrisy, or both.

     

     

     

     



    Can't defend Obama?

     

    No surprise.  All you seem to be able to do is point out that Bush had his problems in this area as well.  It does not justify his, or Obama's actions.

     
  17. This post has been removed.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from tacobreath. Show tacobreath's posts

    Re: Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

    In response to WhatDoYouWantNow's comment:

    If you feel you have too much credit card debt, you do not resolve it by contesting all the charges.



    Unless your card was stolen and someone racked it to it`s limit........kinda like Obama and the Democrats did to the American economy.

     
  19. This post has been removed.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from jedwardnicky. Show jedwardnicky's posts

    Re: Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

    Just posting here to remind me of the day that WDYWN spanked Jmels a-word so hard Jmel changed his account/screen name to tacobreath. I believe the above is kinda a historical document.

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from tacobreath. Show tacobreath's posts

    Re: Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

    In response to jedwardnicky's comment:

     

    Just posting here to remind me of the day that WDYWN spanked Jmels a-word so hard Jmel changed his account/screen name to tacobreath. I believe the above is kinda a historical document.

     

     


    (QUOTE)

     

    What a creepy troll.  Gawddd..........it`s sad.

    Jobless Claims Rise More Than Expected as Hiring Might Stay Modest  

    Thursday, 21 Feb 2013 08:34 AM

     

       

    •  The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits jumped 20,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 362,000, though it remained at a level consistent with modest hiring.

      The Labor Department said Thursday that the four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose 8,000 to 360,750, the highest in six weeks. A department spokesman said heavy snowstorms in the Northeast didn't affect the total.

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from portfilio. Show portfilio's posts

    Re: Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

     

    World's elite loots at least $21 trillion and stashes it in tax-avoiding hideaways

     

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/23/1111308/-World-s-elite-loots-at-least-21-trillion-and-stashes-it-in-tax-avoiding-hideaways

     

     

    It is the government's continued insistence on allowing corporate welfare of this kind which takes capital out of the economy and whick stifles job growth.  This plus the fact that Republicans in Congress refuse to pass a jobs bill.

     

     

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from tacobreath. Show tacobreath's posts

    Re: Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

    In response to portfilio's comment:

     

    World's elite loots at least $21 trillion and stashes it in tax-avoiding hideaways

     

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/23/1111308/-World-s-elite-loots-at-least-21-trillion-and-stashes-it-in-tax-avoiding-hideaways

     

     

    It is the government's continued insistence on allowing corporate welfare of this kind which takes capital out of the economy and whick stifles job growth.  This plus the fact that Republicans in Congress refuse to pass a jobs bill.

     

     

     




    Oh the dailykos says it`s those "evil corporations" that aren`t being "fair"...................

    And, let`s not forget those "wascully wepublicans" with their slight majority in the House ONLY. 

    LOL!  The companies holding on to their money right now has absolutely nothing to do with:

    No budget in 4 years from the Senate (2 attempts both voted down 97-0)

    Unknown costs/taxes associated with Obamacare (majority Americans opposed)

    No spending cuts from the incompetent (and he promised them)

    No tax policy (all we know is the incompetent wants "more")

     

    .................sigh

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from portfilio. Show portfilio's posts

    Re: Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

    Obama proposed ending all tax shelters but the obstructionist far right objected.  Of course, if they were to take the initiative in ending this elitist welfare nonsense, there would be no deficit and everybody would have a job.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from tacobreath. Show tacobreath's posts

    Re: Obama Recovery: Q4 GDP goes negative

    In response to portfilio's comment:

    Obama proposed ending all tax shelters but the obstructionist far right objected.  Of course, if they were to take the initiative in ending this elitist welfare nonsense, there would be no deficit and everybody would have a job.




    How`s life in fantasy land?  "The obstructionist far right"?  Again, I ask the "right" with a very slight majority in the HoR ONLY?

     

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