The Obama Ground Game Myth

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    The Obama Ground Game Myth

    http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/10/28/the-obama-ground-game-myth/

     

    In the last week, there have been two consistent themes being sounded by the Democrats. One is the assertion that Mitt Romney’s momentum has been halted and even reversed. The other is that their ground game is so good that the president is bound to win the election no matter what the polls say. These two talking points are closely related, since the polls that liberal analysts cite in order to assert that the president is edging back into the lead are based on assumptions about the composition of the electorate that are only possible if the Democrats match or even exceed the massive turnout they achieved in 2008. Why pollsters would assume that a correct sample for the 2012 election would mirror the 2008 results when Obama rode a wave of disgust for the Bush administration and belief in his promise of hope and change is a mystery that demands an explanation that has yet to be forthcoming. Yet Democrats say the question is irrelevant since their ability to generate turnout is so expert and so superior to that of the Republicans they believe there is little doubt that once again the number of their voters will outnumber those of the GOP. To that end, journalists have been citing the fact that there are far more Obama campaign offices in states like Ohio than those working for Romney. But that is an argument that even some on the left understand is largely meaningless.

    Not only may the ground game advantage be a myth, the changes in partisan affiliation in the last four years render the optimistic poll numbers that are encouraging Democrats in the past week a self-deception that could lead to bitter disappointment on election day. In a year when independents are flocking to Romney, there simply may not be enough Democrats, youth or minority voters to offset the fact the GOP base will turn out in numbers that will far eclipse their totals in 2008.

    Discussion about a ground game may be simply an attempt to distract us from the fact that the president’s campaign is betting everything on an organizational plan that can’t overcome the way the electorate has changed over the course of the Obama presidency.

     
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    Re: The Obama Ground Game Myth

    Forget the myths - 1/3 of Ohioans have already voted, and Obama leads by 26 points.  It's over.  I really worry about you BDC conservatives - hotair and breitbart and fox news have you convinced Romney will be president, but it's really already over.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from BetheKoolaid. Show BetheKoolaid's posts

    Re: The Obama Ground Game Myth

     "....but it's really already over."

    I guess you are right....in Massachusetts, Obama will win.

    In the 49 non-moonbat states, Romney will win the popular vote and the electoral college.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BetheKoolaid. Show BetheKoolaid's posts

    Re: The Obama Ground Game Myth

    "1/3 of Ohioans have already voted, and Obama leads by 26 points. It's over." How does the koolaid taste? Be here on Nov 7 and take your medicine.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from tvoter. Show tvoter's posts

    Re: The Obama Ground Game Myth

    In response to BetheKoolaid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    "1/3 of Ohioans have already voted, and Obama leads by 26 points. It's over." How does the koolaid taste? Be here on Nov 7 and take your medicine.

    [/QUOTE]

    Its going to be interesting to see how these leftnutz handle defeat.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: The Obama Ground Game Myth

    I would be disappointed with a Romney win, but it wouldn't devastate me.  I'm genuinely worried about some of the conservatives on this board.

    What kool-aid?  This is from your pal Rasmussen.  These aren't polls or predictions fellas - these votes actually count!!!

    Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from BetheKoolaid. Show BetheKoolaid's posts

    Re: The Obama Ground Game Myth

    Obama is supposedly ahead "62 to 36" based on a 145 voter sample poll of early voters, not actual votes being counted. But there are actual numbers which can be crunched. Politico: "Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008." Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82948.html#ixzz2AjTaz2tx

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: The Obama Ground Game Myth

    In response to BetheKoolaid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Obama is supposedly ahead "62 to 36" based on a 145 voter sample poll of early voters, not actual votes being counted. But there are actual numbers which can be crunched. Politico: "Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008." Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82948.html#ixzz2AjTaz2tx

    [/QUOTE]

    My bad - I thought that was an actual vote count.  It's still polls and projections, I guess.

    FYI, the Time poll sampled 145 voters, and was 60-30 Obama.  The Rasmussen poll was 62 to 36, but I don't know the sample size.

    There are "over a million" early voters in Ohio right now, compared to 1.45 million in 2008.  But of course, we're still eight days away from the election.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThatWasMe. Show ThatWasMe's posts

    Re: The Obama Ground Game Myth

    In response to slomag's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to BetheKoolaid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Obama is supposedly ahead "62 to 36" based on a 145 voter sample poll of early voters, not actual votes being counted. But there are actual numbers which can be crunched. Politico: "Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008." Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82948.html#ixzz2AjTaz2tx

    [/QUOTE]

    My bad - I thought that was an actual vote count.  It's still polls and projections, I guess.

    FYI, the Time poll sampled 145 voters, and was 60-30 Obama.  The Rasmussen poll was 62 to 36, but I don't know the sample size.

    There are "over a million" early voters in Ohio right now, compared to 1.45 million in 2008.  But of course, we're still eight days away from the election.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    GALLUP: ROMNEY UP 52%-45% AMONG EARLY VOTERS...

     

     

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