Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from 12-Angry-Men. Show 12-Angry-Men's posts

    Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    Seems the best way to get the wingnuts to quiet down is to ask them to put their own cash behind their oh-so loud predictions.

    The latest example is Nate Silver and his 538 blog.

     

    Political polling guru Nate Silver is so confident in his statistical models that he just offered to bet MSNBC's Joe Scarborough $1,000 that Barack Obama will win re-election. Scarborough, you may recall, criticized Silver's math earlier this week, saying that "Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue ... they're jokes." He was specifically talking about Silver's FiveThirtyEight website, which shows Mitt Romney with just a 1-in-4 chance of becoming president.

    http://news.yahoo.com/nate-silver-joe-scarborough-wanna-bet-113615600.html

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from DamainAllen. Show DamainAllen's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    Like many others in the punditry class Scarborough doesn't seem to understand that Nate Silve isn't predicting an Obama victory, his models are predicting that Obama has a 75% (or whatever it is today) chance of victory.  The track record of his model is impeccable, though not 100% so his reputation is deserved and certainly not the product of ideology.  Further, other online statistical polls similar to Nate's (like Intrade) show Obama winning, but with a smaller percentage.   Most of them predict 62 or 63% chance of victory. 

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from GreginMeffa. Show GreginMeffa's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    In response to 12-Angry-Men's comment:

    Seems the best way to get the wingnuts to quiet down is to ask them to put their own cash behind their oh-so loud predictions.

    The latest example is Nate Silver and his 538 blog.

     

    Political polling guru Nate Silver is so confident in his statistical models that he just offered to bet MSNBC's Joe Scarborough $1,000 that Barack Obama will win re-election. Scarborough, you may recall, criticized Silver's math earlier this week, saying that "Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue ... they're jokes." He was specifically talking about Silver's FiveThirtyEight website, which shows Mitt Romney with just a 1-in-4 chance of becoming president.

    http://news.yahoo.com/nate-silver-joe-scarborough-wanna-bet-113615600.html



    Betting on an incubent is quite daring.

    I've seen 2 lose in half a century.  You?

    Thats 9 to one odds by the way.  Good bet, but doesn't pay much

     

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from 12-Angry-Men. Show 12-Angry-Men's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    In response to GreginMeffa's comment:

    Betting on an incubent is quite daring. I've seen 2 lose in half a century. You? Thats 9 to one odds by the way.  Good bet, but doesn't pay much 



    Then why are the whacko wingnuts going out of their way to discredit not only Nate Silver, but every poll that doesn't agree with their opinion?

    And that includes wingnuts alternately praising/criticizing some same polls that, depending on the day, either are pro- or anti-Mittens.

    There are literrally dozens of wingnut pundits who are not only predicting a Mittens victory but some predict a lopsided blowout.

    These are the wingnuts who should be taking Silver up on his bet.

    But they won't because it's either all bullshiit posturing for the nose-to-Buttocks crowd to not lose faith or they really don't have the confidence they say they do.

    Either way they are disingenuous at best, craven hypocrits at worst.

     

    But what's really ignorant on the part of the wingnuts is that they don't challenge the data directly but just employ the 'Oh he's partisan' bullcrap of lazy thinking ....or some swim deeper into the cesspool of personal attacks and say he's wrong because he's a weak, little girly-man.

    That's the kind of crap coming from the wingnuts that is pathetic.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from WhichOnesPink2. Show WhichOnesPink2's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    "Then why are the whacko wingnuts going out of their way to discredit not only Nate Silver, but every poll that doesn't agree with their opinion?"

     

    Prolly same reason you do same towards those whose opinions you don't agree with

     

    "There are literrally dozens of wingnut pundits who are not only predicting a Mittens victory but some predict a lopsided blowout.

    These are the wingnuts who should be taking Silver up on his bet.

    But they won't because it's either all bullshiit posturing for the nose-to-Buttocks crowd to not lose faith or they really don't have the confidence they say they do."

     

    Jesus you're such a child. But, but, you should bet....if you don't that means you're a p00 p00 head cucka face. Neener neener...

     

    God forbid conservatives root for their guy to win. Yeah that's SUCH a strange concept. Apparently 12-Angry would rather these pundits say "oh well, I guess if the polls say Obama's going to win then that's it. It's over. Let's just all vote for Obama and get this over with".

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from 12-Angry-Men. Show 12-Angry-Men's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    In response to WhichOnesPink2's comment:

    "Then why are the whacko wingnuts going out of their way to discredit not only Nate Silver, but every poll that doesn't agree with their opinion?"

     

    Prolly same reason you do same towards those whose opinions you don't agree with

     

    "There are literrally dozens of wingnut pundits who are not only predicting a Mittens victory but some predict a lopsided blowout.

    These are the wingnuts who should be taking Silver up on his bet.

    But they won't because it's either all bullshiit posturing for the nose-to-Buttocks crowd to not lose faith or they really don't have the confidence they say they do."

     

    Jesus you're such a child. But, but, you should bet....if you don't that means you're a p00 p00 head cucka face. Neener neener...

     

    God forbid conservatives root for their guy to win. Yeah that's SUCH a strange concept. Apparently 12-Angry would rather these pundits say "oh well, I guess if the polls say Obama's going to win then that's it. It's over. Let's just all vote for Obama and get this over with".

     




    No spanky, rooting for a win is not the same as attacking a respected analysis based on nothing more than "His results don't jibe with my ignorant ideology so he must be wrong" or the personal attacks that "he's thin and effeminate."

    It is the classic spineless wingnut play not to argue the facts but to try and dismiss or discredit the source.

    That's not rooting for your guy, that's character assasination.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from WhichOnesPink2. Show WhichOnesPink2's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    In response to 12-Angry-Men's comment:

    In response to WhichOnesPink2's comment:

    "Then why are the whacko wingnuts going out of their way to discredit not only Nate Silver, but every poll that doesn't agree with their opinion?"

     

    Prolly same reason you do same towards those whose opinions you don't agree with

     

    "There are literrally dozens of wingnut pundits who are not only predicting a Mittens victory but some predict a lopsided blowout.

    These are the wingnuts who should be taking Silver up on his bet.

    But they won't because it's either all bullshiit posturing for the nose-to-Buttocks crowd to not lose faith or they really don't have the confidence they say they do."

     

    Jesus you're such a child. But, but, you should bet....if you don't that means you're a p00 p00 head cucka face. Neener neener...

     

    God forbid conservatives root for their guy to win. Yeah that's SUCH a strange concept. Apparently 12-Angry would rather these pundits say "oh well, I guess if the polls say Obama's going to win then that's it. It's over. Let's just all vote for Obama and get this over with".

     




    No spanky, rooting for a win is not the same as attacking a respected analysis based on nothing more than "His results don't jibe with my ignorant ideology so he must be wrong" or the personal attacks that "he's thin and effeminate."

    It is the classic spineless wingnut play not to argue the facts but to try and dismiss or discredit the source.

    That's not rooting for your guy, that's character assasination.

     



    Are you thin and effeminate? I ask only because it seemed to strike a nerve with you. Just sayin

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from 12-Angry-Men. Show 12-Angry-Men's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    In response to WhichOnesPink2's comment:

    In response to 12-Angry-Men's comment:

    In response to WhichOnesPink2's comment:

    "Then why are the whacko wingnuts going out of their way to discredit not only Nate Silver, but every poll that doesn't agree with their opinion?"

     

    Prolly same reason you do same towards those whose opinions you don't agree with

     

    "There are literrally dozens of wingnut pundits who are not only predicting a Mittens victory but some predict a lopsided blowout.

    These are the wingnuts who should be taking Silver up on his bet.

    But they won't because it's either all bullshiit posturing for the nose-to-Buttocks crowd to not lose faith or they really don't have the confidence they say they do."

     

    Jesus you're such a child. But, but, you should bet....if you don't that means you're a p00 p00 head cucka face. Neener neener...

     

    God forbid conservatives root for their guy to win. Yeah that's SUCH a strange concept. Apparently 12-Angry would rather these pundits say "oh well, I guess if the polls say Obama's going to win then that's it. It's over. Let's just all vote for Obama and get this over with".

     




    No spanky, rooting for a win is not the same as attacking a respected analysis based on nothing more than "His results don't jibe with my ignorant ideology so he must be wrong" or the personal attacks that "he's thin and effeminate."

    It is the classic spineless wingnut play not to argue the facts but to try and dismiss or discredit the source.

    That's not rooting for your guy, that's character assasination.

     



    Are you thin and effeminate? I ask only because it seemed to strike a nerve with you. Just sayin




    Ya, I'm kind funny like that, I tend to stick up for people who are personally attacked for nothing more than offering an actual mathematical analysis of the state of politics. Who lay out their data for all to see, yet the best challenge is personal attacks.

    I also tend to come down on the side of of intelligent people who are attacked by ideological idiots because of their inferiority complex.

    And of course ignorance in general is particularly annoying but the efforts people expend and the levels they will sink to, to remain that way is downright pathetic.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from WhichOnesPink2. Show WhichOnesPink2's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    In response to 12-Angry-Men's comment:



    Ya, I'm kind funny like that, I tend to stick up for people who are personally attacked for nothing more than offering an actual mathematical analysis of the state of politics.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    No doubt Silver appreciates you sticking up for him.....sigh....gawd you're such a phony

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from 12-Angry-Men. Show 12-Angry-Men's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    In response to WhichOnesPink2's comment:

    In response to 12-Angry-Men's comment:



    Ya, I'm kind funny like that, I tend to stick up for people who are personally attacked for nothing more than offering an actual mathematical analysis of the state of politics.

     



    No doubt Silver appreciates you sticking up for him.....sigh....gawd you're such a phony




    Oh that's right, you really don't have a point, you're on these boards just to annoy people.

    I keep forgetting.

    But thanks for proving my point, that you're the spineless coward type who's fallback position is "Neener, neener, neener...you're a phony"

    I shouldn't have expected much from some like with with such low self-esteem and an inferiority complex that makes Mittens look like he actually has a spine.

     

 
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from WhichOnesPink2. Show WhichOnesPink2's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    In response to 12-Angry-Men's comment:

    In response to WhichOnesPink2's comment:

    In response to 12-Angry-Men's comment:



    Ya, I'm kind funny like that, I tend to stick up for people who are personally attacked for nothing more than offering an actual mathematical analysis of the state of politics.

     



    No doubt Silver appreciates you sticking up for him.....sigh....gawd you're such a phony




    Oh that's right, you really don't have a point, you're on these boards just to annoy people.

    I keep forgetting.

    But thanks for proving my point, that you're the spineless coward type who's fallback position is "Neener, neener, neener...you're a phony"

    I shouldn't have expected much from some like with with such low self-esteem and an inferiority complex that makes Mittens look like he actually has a spine.

     



    Says the guy who spends his entire day name-calling.....BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    BTW...has Silver called you to thank you for sticking up for him??? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA

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  • You have chosen to ignore posts from 12-Angry-Men. Show 12-Angry-Men's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    In response to WhichOnesPink2's comment:

    Says the guy who spends his entire day name- calling..... BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA BTW...has Silver called you to thank you for sticking up for him??? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA



    Ahhh, there's that inferiority complex shinning through again pinkie.

    Projecting your need for recognition and acceptance on others is very telling.

    It's sad when you don't have enough self-respect to do or state someting because you actually believe it rather than to garner attention.

    No wonder you're such a pathetic anklebiter, you just want attention.

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from WhichOnesPink2. Show WhichOnesPink2's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    In response to 12-Angry-Men's comment:

    In response to WhichOnesPink2's comment:

     

    Says the guy who spends his entire day name- calling..... BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA BTW...has Silver called you to thank you for sticking up for him??? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA




    Ahhh, there's that inferiority complex shinning through again pinkie.

     

    Projecting your need for recognition and acceptance on others is very telling.

    It's sad when you don't have enough self-respect to do or state someting because you actually believe it rather than to garner attention.

    No wonder you're such a pathetic anklebiter, you just want attention.



    Yes, my pointing out how you insult people all day long is an inferiority complex....WOW....Ok well it's plain to see you're struggling. Maybe it's low sugar, I dunno. Anywho...I'll leave you be so you can have the last word...I'm sure it will be more jibberish and insults. Have at it sweet cheeks!

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from GreginMeffa. Show GreginMeffa's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    Then why are the whacko wingnuts going out of their way to discredit not only Nate Silver, but every poll that doesn't agree with their opinion?

    ----------------

    Never heard of him until now.

     

    Must be a whole bunch!

    Ah, but if it doesn't apply to me, why am I replying, right?

    That one was among your dumbest, and thats a fr1ggin chore.

    The sheep lied

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from UserName99. Show UserName99's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    In response to jmel's comment:



    LOL!  Joe Scarborough a "wingnut"?   He`s a bigger Lib than you!  Talk about a freakin RINO working on a fantasy show on a fantasy cable network, with no audience!

    BWAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!

    Let`s see......hmmmmm......Nate Silver vs Rasmussen, Gallup, Suffolk, Zogby, Reuters, Dick Morris, Karl Rove, University of Colorado (probably the most acurrate of any on earth).......and you`re choosing a Vegas baseball handicapper that got lucky once on an election that was a lock?

    BWAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!



    Your full ignorance is on display here jmel. 

    Nate Silver is a poll aggregator, not a pollster.  He doesn't compete with Rasmussen, Gallup, Suffolk, Zogby, Reuters, Dick Morris, Karl Rove, or the University of Colorado.  He takes their polling information and makes predictions based on it.

     PS....Obama is at 79% chance of winning today. ~300 electoral votes.

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  • You have chosen to ignore posts from 12-Angry-Men. Show 12-Angry-Men's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    In response to GreginMeffa's comment:

    Then why are the whacko wingnuts going out of their way to discredit not only Nate Silver, but every poll that doesn't agree with their opinion?  Never heard of him until now.  Must be a whole bunch! Ah, but if it doesn't apply to me, why am I replying, right? That one was among your dumbest, and thats a fr1ggin chore. The sheep lied

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Wow, seriously?

     

    Because in your infinite ignorance you haven't heard of Nate Silver then everything is allright with the wingnut world.

    Black Swan

    Geepers, in a few short sentence you succinctly summarized the ideological ignorance that is the wingnuts and illustrated the efforts employed to stay that way. "Meh, never heard of him, can't be important".

    Congrats.

     

    "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy"

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from DamainAllen. Show DamainAllen's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    Its curious that people have such a strong anti Silver opinion while singing the praises of individual polling firms, when his methods incorporate those same polls and numerous other states polls into the system he created.  Its like some of you don't understand the concept of aggregate polling, which is widely used by several reputable organizations and polling experts (including Nate Silver). 

    Consider:

    Intrade has Obama with a 67 percent chance of winning

    Betfair has Obama with a 67 percent chance of winning

    The Iowa Electronic Markets has Obama with a 61% chance of winning

    Every major political betting market and every major forecasting tool is showing a high probability of an Obama victory right now, and for the same reason: Obama remains ahead in enough states that, unless the polls are systematically wrong, or they undergo a change unlike any yet seen in the race, Obama will win the election.  But this isn't a result a wishful thinking, this is the result of data analysis that is publically available and sorted through and presented using differing methodologies.  Don't like Nate Silver?  Think he's a partisan hack?  Then why are other similar methods for establishing a probable winner of the election outcome all saying the same thing?

    Obviously the most important poll of all will be the final margin decided on election day.  These models may be able to use current data to establish probability, but none say with certainty what the outcome will be.  Even Silver's model.  His confidence in his tool aside, he acknowledges that its a probability tool, not a prophecy. 

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from msobstinate99. Show msobstinate99's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    In response to DamainAllen's comment:

    Its curious that people have such a strong anti Silver opinion while singing the praises of individual polling firms, when his methods incorporate those same polls and numerous other states polls into the system he created.  Its like some of you don't understand the concept of aggregate polling, which is widely used by several reputable organizations and polling experts (including Nate Silver). 

    Consider:

    Intrade has Obama with a 67 percent chance of winning

    Betfair has Obama with a 67 percent chance of winning

    The Iowa Electronic Markets has Obama with a 61% chance of winning

    Every major political betting market and every major forecasting tool is predicting an Obama victory right now, and for the same reason: Obama remains ahead in enough states that, unless the polls are systematically wrong, or they undergo a change unlike any we’ve yet seen in the race, Obama will win the election.  But this isn't a result a wishful thinking, this is the result of data analysis that is publically available and sorted through and presented using differing methodologies.  Don't like Nate Silver?  Think he's a partisan hack?  Then why are other similar methods for predicting the election outcome all saying the same thing?

    Obviously the most important poll of all will be the final margin decided on election day.  These models may be able to use current data to make predictions, but none say with certainty what the outcome will be.  Even Silver's model.  His confidence in his tool aside, he acknowledges that its a prediction, not a prophecy. 




    I predict in five days we'll have an answer, one way or the other. 

     

     
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  • You have chosen to ignore posts from 12-Angry-Men. Show 12-Angry-Men's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    I know I'll regret responding...Lie down with dogs...but what the heck.

     

    Are you fvcking serious?

    Let's just take one state you mention in your "Every poll, every state, every expert, except one is predicting a Romney win. " bullshiit.

     

    Ohio:

    Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin. 10/25 - 10/30 1182 LV 2.9 48 46 Obama +2

    Rasmussen Reports 10/28 - 10/28 750 LV 4.0 48 50 Romney +2

    SurveyUSA 10/26 - 10/29 603 LV 4.1 48 45 Obama +3

    Gravis Marketing 10/27 - 10/27 730 LV 3.6 50 49 Obama +1

    PPP (D) 10/26 - 10/28 718 LV 3.7 51 47 Obama +4

    CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac 10/23 - 10/28 1110 LV 3.0 50 45 Obama +5

    Purple Strategies 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 46 44 Obama +2

    CNN/Opinion Research 10/23 - 10/25 741 LV 3.5 50 46 Obama +4

    ARG 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 49 47 Obama +2

     

     

    Do you see those numbers?

    It's exactly the opposite of your bullshiit. Only one poll favors Mittens.

     
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  • You have chosen to ignore posts from 12-Angry-Men. Show 12-Angry-Men's posts

    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    I shoulda seen that one coming...

    Hey ya racist bigot, which field did ya move those goal posts to this time?

    I can't even see 'em from this thread.

     

     

    Typical racist, making excuses for his inferiority complex.

     

     
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