Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

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    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    Like many others in the punditry class Scarborough doesn't seem to understand that Nate Silve isn't predicting an Obama victory, his models are predicting that Obama has a 75% (or whatever it is today) chance of victory.  The track record of his model is impeccable, though not 100% so his reputation is deserved and certainly not the product of ideology.  Further, other online statistical polls similar to Nate's (like Intrade) show Obama winning, but with a smaller percentage.   Most of them predict 62 or 63% chance of victory. 

     
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    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    In response to jmel's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    [/QUOTE]

    LOL!  Joe Scarborough a "wingnut"?   He`s a bigger Lib than you!  Talk about a freakin RINO working on a fantasy show on a fantasy cable network, with no audience!

    BWAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!

    Let`s see......hmmmmm......Nate Silver vs Rasmussen, Gallup, Suffolk, Zogby, Reuters, Dick Morris, Karl Rove, University of Colorado (probably the most acurrate of any on earth).......and you`re choosing a Vegas baseball handicapper that got lucky once on an election that was a lock?

    BWAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!

    [/QUOTE]

    Your full ignorance is on display here jmel. 

    Nate Silver is a poll aggregator, not a pollster.  He doesn't compete with Rasmussen, Gallup, Suffolk, Zogby, Reuters, Dick Morris, Karl Rove, or the University of Colorado.  He takes their polling information and makes predictions based on it.

     PS....Obama is at 79% chance of winning today. ~300 electoral votes.

     
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    Re: Wingnuts keep saying Nate Silver is an incompetent ideologue. His response: Wanna bet?

    Its curious that people have such a strong anti Silver opinion while singing the praises of individual polling firms, when his methods incorporate those same polls and numerous other states polls into the system he created.  Its like some of you don't understand the concept of aggregate polling, which is widely used by several reputable organizations and polling experts (including Nate Silver). 

    Consider:

    Intrade has Obama with a 67 percent chance of winning

    Betfair has Obama with a 67 percent chance of winning

    The Iowa Electronic Markets has Obama with a 61% chance of winning

    Every major political betting market and every major forecasting tool is showing a high probability of an Obama victory right now, and for the same reason: Obama remains ahead in enough states that, unless the polls are systematically wrong, or they undergo a change unlike any yet seen in the race, Obama will win the election.  But this isn't a result a wishful thinking, this is the result of data analysis that is publically available and sorted through and presented using differing methodologies.  Don't like Nate Silver?  Think he's a partisan hack?  Then why are other similar methods for establishing a probable winner of the election outcome all saying the same thing?

    Obviously the most important poll of all will be the final margin decided on election day.  These models may be able to use current data to establish probability, but none say with certainty what the outcome will be.  Even Silver's model.  His confidence in his tool aside, he acknowledges that its a probability tool, not a prophecy. 

     
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