Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from MetroWest123. Show MetroWest123's posts

    Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?

    So for those of us *still* waiting on the sidelines to buy, what do you think the latest news implies?  It would seem that downward price pressure has to intensify, even with the low rates that exist today.  When supply exceeds demand - as it apparently does now - then prices have to give, right?  Or will sellers continue to hold fast to their price expectations, waiting to recoup what they paid during the boom times?


    Per The Warren Group, 24 August 2010:

    Single-family home sales dropped 26.15 percent in July, reversing a trend of 12 straight months of increases. A total of 3,668 single-family homes sold in July, down from 4,967 a year earlier. This is the fewest number of sales in the month of July since 1990. In the first five months prior to July, sales volume had increased by 10 percent or more.
     
    "It's disappointing to see such a big drop in sales," said The Warren Group CEO Timothy M. Warren Jr. "It appears the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit hurt sales volume. Buyers aren't entering the market as aggressively as they were earlier this year. Whether this is a temporary dip due to the rush to qualify for the tax credit, or whether this is a sign of a declining market for the balance of the year is the big question in my mind."
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from MarieZorn. Show MarieZorn's posts

    Re: Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?

    What are you waiting for? What are you afraid of? Are you an investor? This is a great time to buy if you are. Wealth is made in down times. However, if you are looking for a home you will be in for the next 5-10 years, and a first time buyer or mid range then take advantage of the rates. If you are looking for a deal, buy a short sale or foreclosure. But you need time and patiencefor those deals. Cash helps too. Looking for a home that fits your needs and lifestyle in years to come is far more satisfying than loosing it over a couple of grand, isn't it? A personal decision for sure.
    In Response to Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?:
    [QUOTE]So for those of us *still* waiting on the sidelines to buy, what do you think the latest news implies?  It would seem that downward price pressure has to intensify, even with the low rates that exist today.  When supply exceeds demand - as it apparently does now - then prices have to give, right?  Or will sellers continue to hold fast to their price expectations, waiting to recoup what they paid during the boom times? Per The Warren Group, 24 August 2010: Single-family home sales dropped 26.15 percent in July, reversing a trend of 12 straight months of increases. A total of 3,668 single-family homes sold in July, down from 4,967 a year earlier. This is the fewest number of sales in the month of July since 1990. In the first five months prior to July, sales volume had increased by 10 percent or more.   "It's disappointing to see such a big drop in sales," said The Warren Group CEO Timothy M. Warren Jr. "It appears the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit hurt sales volume. Buyers aren't entering the market as aggressively as they were earlier this year. Whether this is a temporary dip due to the rush to qualify for the tax credit, or whether this is a sign of a declining market for the balance of the year is the big question in my mind."
    Posted by MetroWest123[/QUOTE]
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from MetroWest123. Show MetroWest123's posts

    Re: Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?

    Marie - Thank you for responding to the original post.  Regarding the notion that "this is a great time to buy" -- what do you tell potential buyers who are concerned that they are "catching a falling knife"? Even if a buyer intends to stay in a home for ten years or more, it's painful to think that your $500,000+ purchase could fall by another 10-20% in value shortly after you buy it.  Some of the indicators that those of us still sitting on the sidelines are watching include the following:





    Prudence and fiscal caution would seem to dictate that waiting another year - or even another six months - is the best path forward.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from seoajay. Show seoajay's posts

    Re: Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?

    That is called Real Estate market strategy. So don't afraid and invest your money. You will be success.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from MarieZorn. Show MarieZorn's posts

    Re: Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?

    Hi MetroWest123
    I read all the links and believe what is happening nationally is not happening in our area. I spent 3 days in CA at the end of August and didn't meet 1 agent who sold a house that was not foreclosed or short saled.

    This is not happening here with the same occurance. Yes, there are shorts and foreclosures & I know there are pockets in Metro-West where I work that are suffering, but foreclosures are not every other house. There are towns that although prices are down, they are not down 20-30%. Quite frankly, in Medfield, Westwood, etc...prices are stabilizing. Excellent school systems protect real estate values everywhere. 

    I know homes are not loosing 10-20% in value you worry about in the towns I service. To answer your question, if I was seeing this kind of depreciaiton you speak of; I would exerise caution and advise the best I could with each indivual situation & lifestyle need.  

    Real estate is cyclical. If you are staying in your home for 10-15 yrs., are in the prime of your career, its the home you have seen yourself living in-then go for it. It always comes back and your family will be happier for it. I repeat: It is a personal decision for sure. In Response to Re: Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?:
    [QUOTE]Marie - Thank you for responding to the original post.  Regarding the notion that "this is a great time to buy" -- what do you tell potential buyers who are concerned that they are "catching a falling knife"? Even if a buyer intends to stay in a home for ten years or more, it's painful to think that your $500,000+ purchase could fall by another 10-20% in value shortly after you buy it.  Some of the indicators that those of us still sitting on the sidelines are watching include the following: http://seekingalpha.com/article/223917-pending-home-sales-reconfirm-the-market-is-crashing http://seekingalpha.com/article/223574-july-pending-home-sales-it-could-take-a-decade-to-fully-recover http://seekingalpha.com/article/223088-false-hope-for-housing-from-case-shiller http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/more-realtor-nonsense/ Prudence and fiscal caution would seem to dictate that waiting another year - or even another six months - is the best path forward.
    Posted by MetroWest123[/QUOTE]
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from nickimar. Show nickimar's posts

    Re: Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?

    Marie,

       It's clear that the market is being artificially propped up in more ways than one.  I don't understand, either realtors honestly don't understand this or they are incredibly deceitful and either option is not reassuring to anyone working with them.  

    The sales price statistics are not accurate because they are including the prices from the sale of property being bought back at auction by banks.  These prices are much higher than what the current market would allow. Since the banks are buying back tons of property at overinflated prices that they have vested interest in, these figures are skewing the data.  This creates the illusion that sales prices should be higher than what these properties are really worth.   That is the first attempt at artificially propping up the market. 

    The next would be the Feds attempt at holding the interest rate steady, when the rate goes up (which it will) the market will not be able to support the current pricing and so property values will bottom out. 

    The third attempt was the tax credit.  Now that the tax credit extension expired Sept 30th, you will truly see the begin of the decline.  The market was declining until the tax credit was introduced and you could see it artificially spike up in graphs of the data.

    The fourth attempt to control conditions was with the banks holding back massive amounts of (shadow) inventory that would drive down property values.  They did this to control pricing and keep values artificially inflated.  So they could recoup their losses or more like so they could profit many times over because in reality the banks made a killing.  When that inventory is released values will plummet, much like Nevada,  Florida and Arizona.  
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from nickimar. Show nickimar's posts

    Re: Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?

    Our area may not be as adversely affected as Ca however we will be affected.  Not sure why Realtors think we are living in some sort of Bay State Bubble and nothing that is happening on a National or Global level will affect us.  That seems incredibly naive.   I live on the North Shore and I am seeing tons of shadow inventory.  I have looked at homes that have been sitting for 2+ years.  I read the pre-foreclosure, foreclosure and bankruptsy listings weekly and they just keep coming.  So for anyone who thinks we are untouchable you are sadly mistaken.  Time to take the rose colored glasses off.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from nickimar. Show nickimar's posts

    Re: Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?

    Also had to go to Housing Court for tenant issues and 95% of the cases were Lawyers of Banks evicting tenants in order to confiscate property, so what does that tell you?  I mean, geez look around get your head out of the sand. It's pretty obvious.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from MarieZorn. Show MarieZorn's posts

    Re: Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?

    Hi,
    Just catching up with the different posts out there. Believe me, I am not wearing rose colored glasses. The inventory here in Metro-West really isn't that full of foreclosures, short sales, etc...I reside and work in MetroWest. The market is so regional and even varies from town to town. Houses are selling in my main area of Medfield. I don't think we are immune as I have stated before, but it is not like FLA, CA and Nevada. As I stated, at the conference I was at in So. CA-every sale they are doing for the most part is a foreclosure and THAT simply is not the case here. And hope not for the future for EVERYONE'S sake.
     In Response to Re: Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?:
    [QUOTE]Our area may not be as adversely affected as Ca however we will be affected.  Not sure why Realtors think we are living in some sort of Bay State Bubble and nothing that is happening on a National or Global level will affect us.  That seems incredibly naive.   I live on the North Shore and I am seeing tons of shadow inventory.  I have looked at homes that have been sitting for 2+ years.  I read the pre-foreclosure, foreclosure and bankruptsy listings weekly and they just keep coming.  So for anyone who thinks we are untouchable you are sadly mistaken.  Time to take the rose colored glasses off.
    Posted by nickimar[/QUOTE]
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from MarieZorn. Show MarieZorn's posts

    Re: Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?

    Hi Again Nickimar,
    Guess this island I live and work in is exceptional for now. Sorry, just can't agree with you. So I will agree to disagree. I do this full time and will agree that for the 1st time in 10 yrs there has been o incentive to buy except really low interest rates. But people need a place to live, relocate in and out, get divorced, etc.... so we do the best we can for them. So far, so good here on this island from Westwood to Medway and a few towns in between like Dover, Sherborn, Needham.
    In Response to Re: Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?:
    [QUOTE]Also had to go to Housing Court for tenant issues and 95% of the cases were Lawyers of Banks evicting tenants in order to confiscate property, so what does that tell you?  I mean, geez look around get your head out of the sand. It's pretty obvious.
    Posted by nickimar[/QUOTE]
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from MarieZorn. Show MarieZorn's posts

    Re: Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?

    REMaven-FYI, the RE Market is good in Medfield compared to othere towns. Prices are down, no different than anywhere else, but there have been more solds this year than last. Why does posting a picture have to do with this discussion? I have often wondered why on business cards myself, though! ??? 

    I thought this was an area of discussion! But, since you asked about Walden Court-Walden Court did expire but was re-listed and now under agreement to close.

    The mortgage tax deduction elimination would stink, wouldn't it! So if you don't have to buy, then don't! But if you have to or want to buy or sell, then you you have to deal with the market as it is! Many are. The time to build wealth in real estate is in a down market. Best time to move up is in a down real estate market. You will gain more than you lose.

    In my opinion, we haven't had leadership in Washington for a very long time anyway. And the reason we are in this mess is because of the lack of leadership for last 10+ yrs in Washington!

    Lastly,So sorry to hear your opinion of real estate agents and used car salesman. I'm here for discussion, not name calling. I love my job. I help people buy and sell homes. So can we keep it to a discussion and not make it personal?

    In Response to Re: Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?:
    [QUOTE]Why do real estate agents have to post their pictures, here on this forum or on their business cards? Are they in a beauty contest? Do other "professions and professionals" have (usually out of date, showing a younger person) a picture on their business cards? Silly and part and pacel of a vanity and emotional driven real estate market. Marie. If the Medfield market is so great, then why did your listing,  MLS # 71140120, 15 Walden Ct, recently expire w/o selling? The U.S. Debt Commission just reported today that it is proposing cutting back or eliminating the mortgage tax deduction. This will help torpedo the sale of real estate, so a buyer on the fence should remain there, as prices will fall back in line with salaries.   With the economy being so terrible and w/o having any leadership in Washington who knows what they’re doing to fix the problem they created in the first place, the real estate market will only get worse. It only stands to reason. Since real estate is so emotional and practiced by agents who only know and deal in emotion, anything to do with the national or international economy is beyond their “sunshine and lollipops” mindset.   We have many people who need to relocate, are getting divorce, are moving into nursing homes, graduates who are headed for the SUN belt and into lower tax States. There will always be buyers and sellers, even in Detroit.   I’m so sick of commission only salespeople, from car salesmen to real estate agents, always saying now is a great time to buy.   No wonder that the public trusts real estate agents as much as they trust used car salesmen.   Lastly, you can not compare the CA. market to the MA market. CA has the worlds 8 th largest economy. CA. has the most population in the US and has a land mass many times the size of MA. You can’t lump Bakersfield in with LA or S.F. or Laguna Beach, just as you can’t with Boston, Springfield or Lawrence.
    Posted by REMaven[/QUOTE]
     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from ronrsr14. Show ronrsr14's posts

    Re: Latest news - bad for sellers, better for buyers - but the standoff continues?

    I almost hate to be uncharacteristically optimistic, but I have a good memory, and have been through four or so business cycles in my life.

    I can't help but recall the refrain at cocktail parties in the past:

    "Boy, I wish I had bought in '91"
    "Boy, I wish I had bought in '80"
    "Boy, I wish I had bought in '73"


    Housing has led us out of six of the last seven recessions, and everybody always says, "boy, I wish I had bought. . . ,"  

    We have perfect hindsight, but it's our foresight that's a bit sketchy.

    bests,
    -rsr-
    Ron Rothenberg
    Exclusive Buyer Broker
    4 Buyers R.E.
    ronrsr@4buyersre.com
     
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