When will real estate prices begin rising again?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Thanks for the new thread. When will the bottom arrive... 2009, 2010, 2011 ??
    I'm not sure.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from centerfielder. Show centerfielder's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Thanks for starting the thread up again FM. Maybe this time the trolls will realize nobody cares what they have to say.

    As far as when prices will start rising is concerned, I do not believe this will happen for another 7 -8 years. Prices will continue to decline for another 2- 3 years followed by 4-5 years of price stagnation because prices will need to align with other economic fundamentals.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from FinanceMike. Show FinanceMike's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Grim portents.

    http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/12382607/1/c_2984367?f=alerts

    One Economist writer's view of the current state of the global economy and likelihood of a recession, which would not be good for housing prices.

    And note that falling asset prices are not a US-only phenomenon:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/british-sept-house-prices-fall/story.aspx?guid=%7BE6FC48DB%2D8A0E%2D43AC%2D84E3%2DED3757C13A7A%7D

    Good luck all!

    Finance Mike
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Want a laugh in these difficult times...

    Remember when the talking heads said that things would improve in late 2007 ?

    That makes me laugh !!
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Hey TUG that was a funny one. But, please don't ruin this board. Some people actually want to discuss the MA housing market.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Sadly, the downturn will continue in both the housing and stock market.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from beedee. Show beedee's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Thanks for restarting the forum FinanceMike. I keep hearing pundits say that the economic turmoil won't find an end until housing prices stabilize nationally. Yes, this is a Mass. board, but with the upheaval right now, nothing is local anymore. So, do you think govt. stepping in to refinance underwater mortgages on a large scale will stop price declines? Or will it destabilise credit markets and all those default swaps even more, which in turn leads to no loans for buyers, more economic freefalling, and more price declines? Or something else entirely?
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Honestly... who are you? STOP RUINING THE BOARD

    Hello moderators ?????
     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from FinanceMike. Show FinanceMike's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Beedee, in my opinion if the government steps in wholesale and interferes in the contracts signed by people in a wholesale fashion, it basically destroys the rule of law that is so important for transactors to enter into transactions with confidence.

    Costs for people trying to get new loans will skyrocket as banks have to proce in the risk that the government will re-write mortgages after the fact. Prudent, sensible, fiscally responsible people will pay the cost to bail out people who overextended themselves. There HAS to be a better way. Tax credits, something.

    There is also a moral hazard aspect to this - if people are protected from the consequences of their behavior, they will enter into increasingly risky and foolish transactions. That's basically what got us into this mess in the first place.

    Good luck all!

    Mike

    Thank you mods, great work!!
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Moderators... please pull the plug on this guy. He is a nuisance and a disruption and offers nothing constructive!
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Giordana. Show Giordana's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Hopefully, RE prices won't rise again for a long time. If they fall far enough, first-time homebuyers might be able to buy something. Right now, many of us are watching from the sidelines, down-payment in hand, waiting for something affordable that isn't a dump or in the ghetto.

    Why are people panicking now that housing prices are falling? The sky-high housing prices of the last few years weren't sustainable. Prices doubled in 5 years, but incomes stayed the same.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?


    Get informed. Same thing happened in Mass. They make laws to slow down the inevitable.

    Due to the new CA Law, BS 1137, Notices-of-Default (foreclosure starts) and Notices-of-Trustee Sale (2nd stage of foreclosure) plunged in Sept.
    It is my impression this new law just pushes out the problem a month or two.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    "What does the average American Tax Payer get? NO JOBS!!!!"

    I understand your frustration/anger. But, you are wrong on this one. The taxpayers get to keep their current jobs.

    If the banking/financial system ground to a halt, then layoffs would have spiked UP significantly... And made the problems worse... what happens to housing when people have NO INCOME???

    Some of these bailouts needed to happen. Now we just hope that the bailouts are done prudently/efficiently/sensibly (you can add a few more "lys" if you want).
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    I am not naive.

    You are correct that things were/are/and will remain BAD.

    However if the banks were not saved, then it was going to be VERY VERY VERY VERY bad... rather than just VERY bad.

    If you want to disagree, then go ahead. But we will never know just how bad it would have gotten without govt intervention.

    For example: letting Fannie Freddie and AIG all go under would have created MASSIVE problems in my (and MANY others) opinion.

    Do I like that we got into this mess = "NO". In fact, like you, I also want to vote out EACH AND EVERY incumbent.

    That is my informed opinion - I know a good deal regarding all of this.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from FinanceMike. Show FinanceMike's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Hi Boom -

    I have to agree with Joe on this one. The issue the Fed and Treasury were facing was the potential for a systemic failure of the system. By that, I mean a "It's a Wonderful Life" - style run on the bank.

    The question people (including the Fed and Treasury) were asking is whether large companies were going to be able to make payrolls. Can you imagine if there were a series of large companies that were unable to make payroll? The panic that would cause in homes across America? An unfortnate number of people live paycheck to paycheck - can you imagine if that paycheck wasn't there because their employer couldn't get short term borrowing to fund payroll as many do?

    I'm sorry, I think that event would be much worse and much more sudden then you think. The problem with the banks is not soundness, it's liquidity. The final prompt that got Paulson and Bernake moving was when the largest and oldest money market fund "broke the buck". Highly rated commercial paper has been considered almost as good as cash, which is why companies can use it to manage cash. For a money market to break the buck, it casts doubt on that whole system.

    Paulson and Bernake had/have one goal in all of this: restore confidence in the mechanisms of our financial transactions and short term borrowing systems. Long term borrowing can wait for now, but short term money management is the lifeblood of the global economy - we all rely on it much more than people know.

    Your points on "saving" the banks is a good one, but your arguments are more long term in nature. If a gunshot victim comes into the emergency room, it's all fine and well to point out that they shouldn't smoke, should exercise more, eat a better diet, etc., but the more immediate concern is the holes in their body leaking blood. That's what we have here.

    Good luck all!

    Finance Mike
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    We disagree. Banks collapsing causes ripples in the marketplace.

    The ripple effect of Fannie, Freddie, AIG, Bear Sterns, multiple banks etc going under would have been Tidal Waves, not ripples.

    Either your anger is clouding your judgement, OR you don't understand how interconnected EVERYTHING is.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Dominoes my friend... dominoes. If those BIG banks fail, then others quickly follow and then... etc etc and so on and so forth.

    Sure, they may be simply delaying the inevitable. But, considering how dire that inevitable scenario could be, I'm glad that they are trying to shore up the system.

    I'm not sure how this situation plays out.

    But if YOU were in charge, it appears that the US would currently be in a financial meltdown of EPIC proportions.

    Maybe the only difference is the speed in which it happens. If that is the case, then "who cares?". A slow meltdown is almost as bad as a fast meltdown. A slow one may be a tiny bit better because people can prepare to some small degree.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from centerfielder. Show centerfielder's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Here's some data for those who claim that the health of the Mass RE market will depend on jobs.
    (Note: It mentions government as one of two sectors to gain jobs but the latest news from the last couple of days reported that there will be some deep cuts dy the Deval Patrick administration in government jobs.)




    Mass. loses jobs as unemployment rate ticks up
    Email| Text size – + October 16, 2008 12:43 PM


    Massachusetts employers cut nearly 4,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate rose another tenth point to 5.3 percent, the state Department of Workforce Development reported.
    While only the third monthly employment decline in the past year, the job losses are another sign that the global financial crisis and national economic downturn are hitting the state.
    Financial services led September job losses, shedding 1,200 jobs, and education and health services lost 1,100. Construction shed 1,000 jobs; manufacturing lost 600, and professional and business services lost 500.
    Employment in consumer sectors continued to decline. Retailers shed 1,200 and leisure and hospitality, which includes hotels, restaurants, and entertainment, lost 800 jobs. Government, information, which includes software makers, and trade, transportation and utilities, were among the only major sectors to gain jobs.
    The state unemployment rate remains below the national rate of 6.1 percent, but as risen more than a point since April.
    (By Robert Gavin, Globe staff)

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from FinanceMike. Show FinanceMike's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Hey Boom -

    There are a lot of things I don't like about the plan as it stands, and agree that there are better ways to accomplish what is needed to maintain the integrity of our financial systems. The manner in which the Fed, Treasury and FDIC have acted is almost guaranteed to cause winners and losers due to government action rather than market forces (just ask the WaMu bondholders...). However, I don't think, "do nothing" would have been appropriate either.

    The efforts the government made to shore up the cash system in my mind are more critical than the bailout plan, but something was (and is) needed to demonstrate the government's commitment to the markets. There are a number of competing ideas on how to best deal with this issue, but we do need to do something quickly. Part of their belief is that they need to move quckly to demonstrate leadership - getting the solution exactly right is less important than the psychological impact of demonstrating action, and on that I think they have a point.

    The language is vauge enough to give them room to adjust their approach as needed. For example, after seeing the impact of the European approach to recapitalizing the banks, they shifted from just planning to buy subprime to also buying preferred stock.

    One thing I am realtively comfortable with is that once this works through our system, the ultimate costs to taxpayers (including debt service on the Treasurys issued) will be minimal. Right now you have the government borrowing at somewhere around 3% and lending to AIG at somewhere north of 10%. In a short number of years that 7% spread will make taxpayers whole even if the entire debit is never fully repaid. And there's a pretty sizeable contingent out there who feel the trading value of subprime mortgages has gone well below their realizable value, so with proper execution the bailout should again result in minimal net cost to the taxpayer (whether there WILL be good execution is a whole other debate).

    Good luck all!

    Finance Mike
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from FinanceMike. Show FinanceMike's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Hey Boom, here's an interesting article.

    http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/12448803/1/c_2984347?f=alerts

    The quote:

    "Yet the justification is the same: the costs of not intervening look larger. If confidence and credit continue to dry up, a near-certain recession will become a depression, a calamity for everybody."

    One way to look at the purchase of preferred shares in banks is that (based on the current AIG activity), the Fed and Treasury are going to use that as a justification for some heavy-handed intervention in how companies distribute their wealth. I think the banks that didn't want the government money know this and would have preferred to take their chances. My guess is that in the long term this investment is not going to be a good thing for the executives of these companies, and they know it. Time will tell.

    Good luck all!

    Finance Mike
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    The capital given to the banks will "rebuild their capital ratios"

    Last I checked that was a good thing. It is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition in order to get the banks lending again.

    They are trying to stop a MAJOR problem. And yes the problem already is EXTREMELY MAJOR. They don't want it to spiral into a completely uncontrolled situation.
    We know you disagree with their methods. Some of us disagree with you.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Considering we all live in Bailout City... what should we do in your opinion?

    Do you believe that Gold/Silver is the way to go as investments?

    How low do you think the DOW will go? Any opinions ???

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from FinanceMike. Show FinanceMike's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Hi all -

    An interesting take on foreclosures from the Boston Fed:

    http://www.bos.frb.org/news/speeches/rosengren/2008/101608.pdf

    The US heat map of foreclosures is particularly interesting.

    Good luck all!

    Finance Mike
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from FinanceMike. Show FinanceMike's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    And here's what it takes to get markets moving....

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aOjzEBTiFWCA

    The quotes:

    "Southern California home sales rose 65 percent in September, the biggest year-over-year increase in at least two decades, as buyers took advantage of foreclosures to purchase properties at discounted prices, MDA DataQuick said. "

    "Sales increased the most in areas where rising foreclosures drove down prices, MDA DataQuick said. Half of all the homes sold in Southern California last month had been foreclosed upon in the previous 12 months, up from 13 percent a year earlier. "

    But we should exclude foreclosures from the calculation of average sales prices...riiiiight....

    Good luck all!

    Finance Mike
     

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