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When will real estate prices begin rising again?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from teleskier19. Show teleskier19's posts

    Re: When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    RATES & PRICES: Actually home prices are still over inflated in many urban areas. Homes are generally selling because of record low interest rates and the tax breaks. When the economy recovers and the FEds raise interest rates, I believe 3-5 years out we will see 30 year mortgages greater than 8 or 9 percent. Additionally, many people  who have been refinancing to 5 year ARMS will be screwed.  This will push down the price of home values again. 

    HIGHER TAXES & LOWER COMPENSATION:  What your also seeing is towns and cities raising the tax rates in addition to generally higher taxes coming out of peoples pay checks.  Combine this with lower compensation than that of the past two-five years (almost everyone that is laid off will be hired back for less and 75% of people have taken paycuts)  That all equals BAD NEWS for home values.  I'm going out on a limb and saying 7-10 years before we see home values increase. 

  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from FinanceMike. Show FinanceMike's posts

    Re: When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Case Schiller is out for October, slight drop month over month. 

    Looking at the tiered index for October, month over month (seasonally adjusted) is revealing:

    Low Tier (under $261k) : +1.02% MOM
    Mid Tier ($262k to $389k): -0.03% MOM
    High Tier ($390k +) : -0.23 MOM

    Using non-seasonally adjusted the difference is even greater.

    Looks like the low tier is winning in the race of the indices. Think that might have something to do with a recent tax incentive?

    Good luck all!

    Finance Mike

  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from JeffPersons. Show JeffPersons's posts

    Re: When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    I've been involved with markets since a 5 year stint as a stock trader in the late 90s and the RE market since 2002.

    I feel that making predictions is futile. Even when you think you know the cycles and all the macro-economic stuff that can be thrown into a prediction.

    Everyone wants to feel better and they would like to feel that they know whats going to happen.

    As much as any observer might know about the markets, there is someone who knows more and more importantly no one knows what will happen.

    In 2002 I predicted the Nasdaq would find a bottom at 2800. I was so totally convinced I invested heavily at that level only to watch it go to 1100. This was an expensive lesson but one I will never forget. It has cured me of the outrageous hubris that goes into a market prediction. Thats one ego trip I will sidestep in the future.