When will real estate prices begin rising again?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bottom-call-2011. Show Bottom-call-2011's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Timmy won't like that...
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bottom-call-2011. Show Bottom-call-2011's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Hey Sammy, please take a step back from the ledge!!!
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bottom-call-2011. Show Bottom-call-2011's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    That was good!!!
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from FinanceMike. Show FinanceMike's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    FYI, Case-Schiller is out - on a seasonally adjusted basis, not much change in Boston.

    http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,6,0,0,0,0,0.html

    My guess is it won't be until May when we get April numbers that any kind of strong trend can be discerned. It'll probably muddle through until then without much change.

    Good luck all!

    Finance Mike
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    A historical look at Massachusetts Warren numbers....

    Median price in Mass in Sept 07 (not the peak) $340,750

    Median price in Jan 09 $259,250

    Down 24% in a bit over a year AND GOING LOWER !!!

    Prices back to 2002 levels !!!!

    All you house pumpers have just got to stop - your credibility is now ZERO !
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bottom-call-2011. Show Bottom-call-2011's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Sammy I love the cartoons!!! A laugh once in a while is good in these times that we are in...

    Timmy didn't look too good in his first address. He got his hand slapped and is taking lessons on how to do it better next time. Watch him come out quite forceful and deliberate next time.

    Obama hard at work on presentation, which is off course his strongest point if not his only one...

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from FinanceMike. Show FinanceMike's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Boom2bust, you may want to re-read the TALF program. It doesn't provide any funding for any past activity, it is only relevant to FUTURE investments in asset backed securities supporting consumer credit. Your characterization of it as a "bailout for companies that have losses" is completely incorrect and misleading.

    The TALF program does provide significant risk reduction for qualified investors who choose to participate in the program and any related losses beyond the investor collateral / haircut will be borne by the Treasury. The Treasury is basically taking a share of the risk to entice investors back into that market. If it is successful, it will jump start those credit markets, which would be a good thing.

    In some housing-related news, here's some interesting data from VA on foreclosures, home prices and average income. If you go to the Boston MSA on page 3, the Suffolk county ratio of housing value to median family income (price at 7.3x income), it's pretty high, approaching CA's 8.3 state average and well above the US 3.2x average.

    http://www.virginia.edu/uvatoday/pdf/appendix.pdf

    Now, that's all of Suffolk, so it's a mix of expensive (e.g., Back Bay) and less expensive (e.g. Dorchester) properties which makes it hard to tell where this will work itself out. But overall it's not a good sign - it implies Suffolk county may still have a ways to go...

    On the plus side, the attached shows 2008 foreclosures as a percentage of housing stock, and MA is running in the middle of the pack, and still pretty low (0.29% vs the top, Nevada at 4.10%). The question is, are we heading to where NV is or not.

    http://www.virginia.edu/uvatoday/pdf/tables.pdf

    Good luck all!

    Finance Mike
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from CBRB2. Show CBRB2's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Wow. Some of you guys are still here?!?!

    Hey, it's 2009... ain't it time to put this question to rest and move on? The Depression is coming and there are so many other concerns, like preparing for a U.S. Monetary Reform? (See 1873 and 1929 aftermath). RE prices rising relative to what?

    Something to think about as America's elite are manning the lifeboats.
     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Bottom in what... construction? prices?

    Those are two VERY different things.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Why is your name calling a bottom in 2011 if you are saying the bottom is here in 2009 ???
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from FinanceMike. Show FinanceMike's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Hi all -

    For what it's worth, I saw an interesting listing come on yesterday - 941sq ft on Beacon. What's so interesting about that? a) it was listed as "bank owned" and b) it had an asking price about $440k, well below what "market" is for that area (341 Beacon). Most of the similarly priced condos were in the 680 sq ft range.

    So, looks like foreclosures (or bank takeovers) aren't limited to Dorchester / Roxbury / etc....

    Good luck all!

    Finance Mike
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from psp312. Show psp312's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    FM - so how many foreclosures on Beacon??? ONE....Are you seriously comparing the foreclosure woes of Dorchester/Roxbury etc with Beacon????

    I would suggest that this is an outlier, an abberation but definitely not a trend.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from FinanceMike. Show FinanceMike's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    [Quote]FM - so how many foreclosures on Beacon??? ONE....Are you seriously comparing the foreclosure woes of Dorchester/Roxbury etc with Beacon????

    I would suggest that this is an outlier, an abberation but definitely not a trend.[/Quote]

    PSP, I'm not sure how you jump to the conclusion that I'm comparing Back Bay to Dorch/Rox. etc.. I am simply pointing out that the Back Bay is not immune to the impact of the current economic situation as some have claimed. Whether it's a trend, time will tell, but I do expect the Back Bay to see a higher than average rate of foreclosures in 2009 - higher than average for the Back Bay, that is. Which should still be a low number, nowhere near the levels seen in Dorch/Rox/etc..

    I also found it interesting the agent indicated "bank owned" in the description.

    Finance Mike
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    2009 is really starting to look like a good time to buy a house

    Especially when 1st time home buyers get $8,000

    And rates are very low

    I haven't thought this way in about a decade

    BSJ
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from psp312. Show psp312's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    [Quote]

    PSP, I'm not sure how you jump to the conclusion that I'm comparing Back Bay to Dorch/Rox. etc.. I am simply pointing out that the Back Bay is not immune to the impact of the current economic situation as some have claimed. Whether it's a trend, time will tell, but I do expect the Back Bay to see a higher than average rate of foreclosures in 2009 - higher than average for the Back Bay, that is. Which should still be a low number, nowhere near the levels seen in Dorch/Rox/etc..

    I also found it interesting the agent indicated "bank owned" in the description.

    Finance Mike[/Quote]

    I came to that conclusion because you made a point to include in your post Dorch/Rox etc. If your post was about how interesting it was to see a bank owned propery in Beacon and left it at that then my conclusion would be incorrect, but by inserting those 2 specific locations you were attempting to lump Beacon into those places.

    And i would say that back bay is immune because like i asked before how many bank owned fire sales in back bay?? One- I'll go out on a limb and conclude that when this crisis is behind us you will be able to count the number of foreclouses in back bay on one hand only because those properties sell fast and for good $$

    what will be interesting is seeing what that listing finally sells for, b/c i guarentee it will be well above 440k (unless it is a real POS)
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from FinanceMike. Show FinanceMike's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    [Quote]

    I came to that conclusion because you made a point to include in your post Dorch/Rox etc. If your post was about how interesting it was to see a bank owned propery in Beacon and left it at that then my conclusion would be incorrect, but by inserting those 2 specific locations you were attempting to lump Beacon into those places.

    And i would say that back bay is immune because like i asked before how many bank owned fire sales in back bay?? One- I'll go out on a limb and conclude that when this crisis is behind us you will be able to count the number of foreclouses in back bay on one hand only because those properties sell fast and for good $$

    what will be interesting is seeing what that listing finally sells for, b/c i guarentee it will be well above 440k (unless it is a real POS)[/Quote]


    More than one, PSP, more than one. Look at RealtyTrac's site for some listings, two bank owned properties (the Beacon St. amd also 272 Marlborough, a recent sale) plus three they list as "pre-foreclosure". So there's your "one hand". I don't think we're done, so that limb you went out on is looking a little shaky, wouldn't you say?

    http://www.realtytrac.com/MapSearch/MA/Boston-foreclosures.html

    I was also pretty surprised to see the number of bank owned properties on Beacon Hill - I hope the Back Bay doesn't get that bad. I'm not suggesting Back Bay will get as bad as some areas. I'm presenting evidence that the belief that all foreclosure and/or subprime issues are confined exclusively to areas like Dorch/Rox/Etc just isn't true.

    I agree it will be interesting to see the final sales price. The listing price is below the outstanding mortgage amount.

    Good luck all!

    Finance Mike
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from bullseyejoe. Show bullseyejoe's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Yep... unless you are betting on a complete collapse of the US economy:

    Such as unemployment greater than 12% etc

    Then the time to buy a home is here (or almost here)

    Again... 1st time to say that in about a decade

    BSJ
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from FinanceMike. Show FinanceMike's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Hi Boom -

    NAR's sales increase was Month over Month (comparison of Feb. 2009 versus January 2009). Of course it went up. It will go up again in March compared to February. It's the "spring selling season" and happens every year. Just NAR putting spin on the numbers. The real question is how March 2009 will compare to March 2008 (which was no great shakes). My guess is down.

    Good luck all!

    Finance Mike
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bottom-call-2011. Show Bottom-call-2011's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Hey Spinster, you left this part out from the article. Spin all you want to, but facts are facts and nothing you post can't be repudiated because it is SPIN!!! When you post facts their irrefutable...
    This same ploy was used in your home sales post. You left out the below from the article. Seven months of declines and one jump and you make it seem like everything is all right. This is Bear Rally mentality!! Things are horrible and this number will be revised downward (games). In fact the +/- is higher than 3.4% so it could show as negative when the revision occurs...
    From article:

    Today’s report from Commerce showed orders for durable goods unexpectedly rose in February on a rebound in demand for machinery, computers and defense equipment. The 3.4 percent increase was the biggest gain in more than a year and the first in seven months.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from CBRB2. Show CBRB2's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Oy and RaRaBoomBoom are the only ones left and it's a fight to the death. I agree with Oy, the bottom is in!

    Boom, you've been voted off this island.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from CBRB2. Show CBRB2's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?


    Dooood!... I'm talkin' about real estate, not the stock market. Get back on point or get off the island, my man!
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bottom-call-2011. Show Bottom-call-2011's posts

    When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    That I do and very, very well!!!

    What do you want to talk about?
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from FinanceMike. Show FinanceMike's posts

    Re: When will real estate prices begin rising again?

    Welcome back "Ignore" button, you've been missed....

    FYI, Case Schiller summary, although a bit dated:

    http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/03/31/a-look-at-case-shiller-numbers-by-metro-area-3/

    Despite showing a decline in Jan (and in most regions, an accelerating decline), I think the Jan activity's pretty low and very subject to distortion.  I'm extremely interested in seeing March numbers, since by then the "spring selling season" should be in full swing and volumes should be up enough to provide some additional confidence int he resulting sales prices. 

    Good luck all!

    Finance Mike
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RealEstateMaven. Show RealEstateMaven's posts

    Real estate prices will never ever go up again!

    Oh joy a new board format.  What a wonderful time we will have discussing all things real estate.

    Let the games begin.

     Laughing
     
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