NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/8/2010 8:05 PM EDT
This is from the Edmonton Oilers website...
Pretty cool but disturbing how many times the Bruins come up with the # 3 pick...
http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=524450&navid=DL|EDM|homeOdds of Winning the First Overall Pick - as of Apr. 8th
48.2% - Edmonton Oilers
18.8% - Boston Bruins (from Toronto)
14.2% - Tampa Bay Lightning
10.7% - Florida Panthers
8.1% - Columbus Blue Jackets
The 2010 NHL Draft Lottery Odds are listed below - as of Apr. 8th
25.0% - Edmonton Oilers
18.8% - Boston Bruins (from Toronto)
14.2% - Tampa Bay Lightning
10.7% - Florida Panthers
8.1% - Columbus Blue Jackets
6.2% - Carolina Hurricanes
4.7% - New York Islanders
3.6% - Atlanta Thrashers
2.7% - Minnesota Wild
2.1% - Dallas Stars
1.5% - New York Rangers
1.1% - Anaheim Ducks
0.8% - St. Louis Blues
0.5% - Phoenix Coyotes (from Calgary)
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/8/2010 8:53 PM EDT
Thats fun... Did it 20 times
Bruins #1 pick --- 3 times
Bruins #2 pick --- 6 times
Bruins #3 pick --- 11 times
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/8/2010 8:59 PM EDT
- ILUVBURKE
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- Last: 1/21/2013
I did 4 this morning, got the B's #1 twice, Edmonton 1. St. Louis the other moving to 9th.
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/8/2010 10:29 PM EDT
Did it 10 times just now... Boston got first or second pick half the time:
Edmonton = 3
Boston = 1
Tamp Bay = 2
Florida = 2
Carolina = 1
New York Islanders = 1
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/8/2010 10:52 PM EDT
I did it 10 times too:
Boston #1- 2
Boston #2- 4
Boston #3- 4
Seems pretty realistic.
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/8/2010 11:06 PM EDT
- BadHabitude
- Posts: 9560
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In Response to
NHL Draft Lottery Simulator:
This is from the Edmonton Oilers website... Pretty cool but disturbing how many times the Bruins come up with the # 3 pick...
http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=524450&navid=DL|EDM|home Odds of Winning the First Overall Pick - as of Apr. 8th 48.2% - Edmonton Oilers 18.8% - Boston Bruins (from Toronto) 14.2% - Tampa Bay Lightning 10.7% - Florida Panthers 8.1% - Columbus Blue Jackets The 2010 NHL Draft Lottery Odds are listed below - as of Apr. 8th 25.0% - Edmonton Oilers 18.8% - Boston Bruins (from Toronto) 14.2% - Tampa Bay Lightning 10.7% - Florida Panthers 8.1% - Columbus Blue Jackets 6.2% - Carolina Hurricanes 4.7% - New York Islanders 3.6% - Atlanta Thrashers 2.7% - Minnesota Wild 2.1% - Dallas Stars 1.5% - New York Rangers 1.1% - Anaheim Ducks 0.8% - St. Louis Blues 0.5% - Phoenix Coyotes (from Calgary)
Posted by TheRealist
So who's good at math? Correct me if I'm wrong - and I probably am.
In order for the Bruins to preserve their #2 pick or to get the number 1 pick, either the Bruins or the Oilers must win. So isn't that 25% + 18.8%? So 43.8% chance we get 1 or 2, but a better than 50/50 chance someone else wins the lottery - so it would seem to me that our odds of getting the 3rd pick are 56.2%? And that's why the simulator gets us the 3rd overall pick so often?
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/8/2010 11:12 PM EDT
In Response to
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator:
In Response to NHL Draft Lottery Simulator : So who's good at math? Correct me if I'm wrong - and I probably am. In order for the Bruins to preserve their #2 pick or to get the number 1 pick, either the Bruins or the Oilers must win. So isn't that 25% + 18.8%? So 43.8% chance we get 1 or 2, but a better than 50/50 chance someone else wins the lottery - so it would seem to me that our odds of getting the 3rd pick are 56.2%? And that's why the simulator gets us the 3rd overall pick so often?
Posted by BadHabitude
Seems logical to me. The Bruins are obviously the 2nd most likely team to get the third pick (other than Tampa Bay, who are in 3rd to last place right now), because they are only one spot above that pick. I would be happy even if the Bruins ended up with Seguin, I just don't want them to end up with Fowler, because he is not what this team needs right now. Even though Seguin is a center, they could always move Bergeron to the wing, or maybe just get rid of Begin.
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/8/2010 11:18 PM EDT
- jalvis
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In Response to
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator:
In Response to NHL Draft Lottery Simulator : So who's good at math? Correct me if I'm wrong - and I probably am. In order for the Bruins to preserve their #2 pick or to get the number 1 pick, either the Bruins or the Oilers must win. So isn't that 25% + 18.8%? So 43.8% chance we get 1 or 2, but a better than 50/50 chance someone else wins the lottery - so it would seem to me that our odds of getting the 3rd pick are 56.2%? And that's why the simulator gets us the 3rd overall pick so often?
Posted by BadHabitude
that theory doesn't take into account teams winning the lottery that can't move up high enough to reach the #2 spot. you can only move up so much (4 spots i believe). so if a team ranked #7 or below wins the lottery they can't over take the b's.
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/8/2010 11:23 PM EDT
I did it a slew of times most of them had us getting the 3rd pick.
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/8/2010 11:24 PM EDT
- BadHabitude
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In Response to
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator:
In Response to Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator : that theory doesn't take into account teams winning the lottery that can't move up high enough to reach the #2 spot. you can only move up so much (4 spots i believe). so if a team ranked #7 or below wins the lottery they can't over take the b's.
Posted by jalvis
Yes, you're right, but when I do the math that way Oilers draft 1st and Bruins 2nd odds are way up, and that's not what happens in the simulator.
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/8/2010 11:26 PM EDT
- jalvis
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In Response to
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator:
I did it a slew of times most of them had us getting the 3rd pick.
Posted by MILANlucic17
same here. it's kinda depressing.
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/8/2010 11:28 PM EDT
- BadHabitude
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In Response to
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator:
In Response to Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator : Seems logical to me. The Bruins are obviously the 2nd most likely team to get the third pick (other than Tampa Bay, who are in 3rd to last place right now), because they are only one spot above that pick. I would be happy even if the Bruins ended up with Seguin, I just don't want them to end up with Fowler, because he is not what this team needs right now. Even though Seguin is a center, they could always move Bergeron to the wing, or maybe just get rid of Begin.
Posted by TimThomas-god
Why not be happy with Fowler? It opens up all kinds of trade opportunities. And the Bruins have done well with really good defensemen - were they ever in the finals in the last 45 years without Orr or Bourque in the line up?
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/8/2010 11:35 PM EDT
- BadHabitude
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Guys, here's what's in my mind when I buy a lottery ticket.
Until they actually do the drawing, the odds of my ticket winning are the same as anyone else who bought a lottery ticket.
So I have purchased a legitimate fantasy of winning, until the drawing happens and I officially lose. Until then I have a legitimate fantasy.
Hall and Seguin are both legit #1 picks and will be impact guys no doubt. I would say the next 3, maybe 4 guys are probable impact guys. That ain't half bad.
And think how bad the Bruins would have to stink if they were to 'earn' that pick on their own. And think about all the other Leaf picks we got.
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/9/2010 12:02 AM EDT
I think the kessel trades an epic failure if we don't get hall or seguin in this draft. We need to replace what we traded away..... A young sniper.
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/9/2010 12:02 AM EDT
- jalvis
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In Response to
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator:
Guys, here's what's in my mind when I buy a lottery ticket. Until they actually do the drawing, the odds of my ticket winning are the same as anyone else who bought a lottery ticket. So I have purchased a legitimate fantasy of winning, until the drawing happens and I officially lose. Until then I have a legitimate fantasy. Hall and Seguin are both legit #1 picks and will be impact guys no doubt. I would say the next 3, maybe 4 guys are probable impact guys. That ain't half bad. And think how bad the Bruins would have to stink if they were to 'earn' that pick on their own. And think about all the other Leaf picks we got.
Posted by BadHabitude
and i believe next year will be another top 5 pick. thanks burkie!!
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/9/2010 12:12 AM EDT
- BadHabitude
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Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator:
I think the kessel trades an epic failure if we don't get hall or seguin in this draft. We need to replace what we traded away..... A young sniper.
Posted by MILANlucic17
You are contradicting yourself. If the Kessel trade must replace a sniper, and that's the only way you're going to look at it, then you have to include next year, too. Unless you are bound and determined to call this an epic failure, and then you will find a reason to do that in any event.
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/9/2010 12:30 AM EDT
I don't wana go through another season of having sturm be our leading goal scorer. This team obv. can't score enough goals meanwhile kessel has over 30 and hasn' even played a full season. Just my opinion doesn't make me right but I want hall or seguin or I hate his trade.
For the record I didn't like the kessel trade at the time. Phils game had some flaws for sure but he is a special talent wih his game breaking speed and his shot.
Anyone thats says we could not keep phill is wrong. PC should have not resighned thomas and use that money to lock up phil. If we didn't have a blue chip goalie in the minors I wouldn't have a problem wih TT being locked up. We also could have dealt sturm and keep ward this could have freed up money.
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/9/2010 12:31 AM EDT
- BadHabitude
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Something isn't quite right, looking at the numbers, spots 3-7 can overtake us and push us back to #3 overall. Adding up those odds its 39.2%. So roughly 40% of the time we should see Bruins get #3 pick, yet from the times I did it and the other posters too - it's like 60% of the time we get #3 pick.
Not making sense to me.
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/9/2010 12:39 AM EDT
A team can only move up 4 spots in the drawing... I don't think the simulator accurately reflects this (even though it claims to!) Using the numbers above (and I didn't check them), the Bruins should have a 60.8% chance of getting the first or second pick.
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/9/2010 12:40 AM EDT
- BadHabitude
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In Response to
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator:
I don't wana go through another season of having sturm be our leading goal scorer. This team obv. can't score enough goals meanwhile kessel has over 30 and hasn' even played a full season. Just my opinion doesn't make me right but I want hall or seguin or I hate his trade. For the record I didn't like the kessel trade at the time. Phils game had some flaws for sure but he is a special talent wih his game breaking speed and his shot. Anyone thats says we could not keep phill is wrong. PC should have not resighned thomas and use that money to lock up phil. If we didn't have a blue chip goalie in the minors I wouldn't have a problem wih TT being locked up. We also could have dealt sturm and keep ward this could have freed up money.
Posted by MILANlucic17
PC was trying to keep Phil and was in a bidding war with Burke, remember Burke had the Dustin Penner RFA thing happen and was going to do it all behind closed doors with PC. When the 5 mil offer came out PC
MUST have convinced Burke he would match it. neither GM was willing to pay that much, one or the other must have suggested at that point that they would compensate
AS IF it were a 6 million contract. Burke had PC over a barrel because he could afford to salary dump, whereas PC had a winning team and reason to believe if he could keep the rest of the core together, they would do ok.
So it wasn't PC trading Kessel, Burke took him. No other explanation covers why Burke gave up the extra 1st round pick. And PC must have convinced Burke that he would counter, else Burke wouldn't have given up the extra pick.
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/9/2010 12:42 AM EDT
- BadHabitude
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In Response to
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator:
I don't wana go through another season of having sturm be our leading goal scorer. This team obv. can't score enough goals meanwhile kessel has over 30 and hasn' even played a full season. Just my opinion doesn't make me right but I want hall or seguin or I hate his trade. For the record I didn't like the kessel trade at the time. Phils game had some flaws for sure but he is a special talent wih his game breaking speed and his shot. Anyone thats says we could not keep phill is wrong. PC should have not resighned thomas and use that money to lock up phil. If we didn't have a blue chip goalie in the minors I wouldn't have a problem wih TT being locked up. We also could have dealt sturm and keep ward this could have freed up money.
Posted by MILANlucic17
Oh - and to answer you specifically, would you have paid the 6 million to keep Kessel? Sturm has a ntc, so we can't deal him.
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/9/2010 5:39 AM EDT
- Mironov
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Seguin or Hall it doesn't matter both of them are upcoming superstars (I hope).
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/9/2010 10:19 AM EDT
- rolerhoky19
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Bad hab,
7 can not over take us..
I posted this on the other thread about the simulator, but here it is again..
From what I have, the bruins have a something like a 61% chance of drafting 2 or higher by my math..I am over simplfying it but just add up the odds of the 4teams behind them of winning and subtract from 100 since these are the teams that can bump us back with a win.. I get 61%
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/9/2010 10:32 AM EDT
- BadHabitude
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In Response to
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator:
Bad hab, 7 can not over take us.. I posted this on the other thread about the simulator, but here it is again.. From what I have, the bruins have a something like a 61% chance of drafting 2 or higher by my math..I am over simplfying it but just add up the odds of the 4teams behind them of winning and subtract from 100 since these are the teams that can bump us back with a win.. I get 61%
Posted by rolerhoky19
OK, that makes sense and my math works out the same way.
So what's going on in Edmonton? Maybe I am basically distrustful, but I wonder if they intentionally made the simulator wrong to stir up more interest. After all, it seems like worst should draft first and that's boring, but what generates interest is when the apple cart gets flipped over.
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator
posted at 4/9/2010 10:35 AM EDT
- DrCC
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In Response to
Re: NHL Draft Lottery Simulator:
Bad hab, 7 can not over take us.. I posted this on the other thread about the simulator, but here it is again.. From what I have, the bruins have a something like a 61% chance of drafting 2 or higher by my math..I am over simplfying it but just add up the odds of the 4teams behind them of winning and subtract from 100 since these are the teams that can bump us back with a win.. I get 61%
Posted by rolerhoky19
This is a correct way to do this. The Bruins have a 60.8% chance of a top 2 pick. You'd probably have to run the simulator many ( />100) times before the percentages start looking statistical.
