Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

    Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/30/2010 11:33 PM EDT

    Forgetting about the lottery, here are the numbers.

    Leafs currently have 69 points.

    The Oilers have clinched the #1 pick, at 55 pts even if they win all 6 games left they have 67 points.

    The max number of pts the Leafs can now get is 79 - winning every game left.
    They have played more games than all the rest of the cellar dwellers.
    They do not play any of the other cellar dwellers the rest of the season.

    Columbus now has 77, so the Leafs will only surpass them if they win every game they have left and Columbus loses every game they have left.
    Not going to happen.

    Cats Bolts and Canes guaranteed points - because they play each other.
    Bolts now have 72, but play the Cats twice and the Canes once + 1 game in hand.
    Cats now have 72, but also play the Bolts twice + 2 games in hand.
    So they will either split or one will take 4 points.
    So you can give one 76 pts or both 74 pts right now.
    So it is much more than likely they will surpass the maximum the Leafs can get (79).

    Canes now have 73 pts + 1 game in hand and play the Bolts once, so one of these will get 2 additional points.
    It is unlikely that the Leafs can catch them, although just possible I think.

    Islanders.  72 pts + 1 game in hand.  Here's the only real potential problem.  They do not meet any of the other cellar dwellers the rest of the season.  3 pts and a game in hand. 

    Isles are 5-3-2 in their last 10,
    Leafs are 6-3-1 in their last 10.

    So I'm not that good at math and I can't tell you the exact odds, but I only see the Leafs being mathematically likely to catch the Isles and even then, like I said the Isles have 3 pts and a game in hand.

     

  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from davecarr. Show davecarr's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/30/2010 11:55 PM EDT

    Not to mention the Leafs will be playing 4 of the last 5 games against teams that are either just outside of the bubble looking in, or just inside the bubble looking out, all motivated to get 2 points. They don't play a team like the Isles who just want the season to end.
     

  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from abra-cadaver. Show abra-cadaver's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 12:01 AM EDT

    Like I said in the other post about this.  Bruins control their own destiny as far as that pick igoes.  If they beat Toronto in regulation on Saturday, that will realistically (but not mathematically)  eliminate Toronto from being able to pass anyone.
     

  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from shaunk. Show shaunk's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 12:03 AM EDT

    Good job, BadHab.  Florida has been playing decent lately, however I think fans should hope that Toronto loses more than those other teams win, considering TB, NYI, and FLA, are all tied with 72 pts.  Toronto has a tough schedule and they face each of their division rivals minus Ottawa in their last 5 games.  Add Philly and NYR, that is a tough order.  I pray that they stumble.
     

  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 12:23 AM EDT


    Here's another number crunch,
    If the Leafs win EVERY ONE of their games left, in order for the bruins to preserve the #2 overall then this has to happen
    Blue Jackets win 2 of their last 5
    Canes would need 4 of their last 5
    Panthers Lightning and Islanders
    would need 4 of their last 6

    As I pointed out, since the Canes, Bolts and Panthers play each other in their last games, I think their winning 4 of their last 6 is actually quite possible.

    The Leafs winning all the rest of their games is virtually impossible.

    The Isles only need to keep pace by only a game, and their record has been almost as good as the Leafs in their last 10.
     

  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from BruinsUSA. Show BruinsUSA's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 12:34 AM EDT

    Great work Badhab, I like to think that with all the frustration and disappointment this year we at least deserve the #2 pick.
     

  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from yukamatta409. Show yukamatta409's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 12:35 AM EDT

     also add the fact that any ties in points and the leafs are considered the lower seed because of win total,so in actuality they have to get 4 more points than any other team in last 5 to get out of 29th spot.
     

  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 12:43 AM EDT

    In Response to Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent:
     also add the fact that any ties in points and the leafs are considered the lower seed because of win total,so in actuality they have to get 4 more points than any other team in last 5 to get out of 29th spot.
    Posted by yukamatta409


    I hadn't thought of that, I think that should make it virtually a lock.

    Even without the ties, consider this, and this is the most reasonable, yet pessimistic (for the Bruins) prediction.
    Leafs win 3 of their last 5

    then in order to keep the #2
    Jackets do not have to win any
    Everyone else has to win 2, and all have at least one game in hand and the Panthers have 2.
     

  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from winexpos. Show winexpos's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 1:08 AM EDT

    In Response to Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent:
    Forgetting about the lottery, here are the numbers. Leafs currently have 69 points. The Oilers have clinched the #1 pick, at 55 pts even if they win all 6 games left they have 67 points. Posted by BadHabitude


    Your right when you say that the Oilers have the number pick, but that's only on paper right now, as they have not "clinched" anything yet as there is still the draft lottery to consider.

    The 5 teams with the worst record in the NHL all have a chance to land the #1 pick overall as teams can move up a max. 4 spots but can't drop more than 1 spot in the draft.

    The only thing we know for sure is that the worst the Oilers can do is pick 2nd and the best is the 1st pick overall.
    Toronto can end the season with the 2nd lowest point total and the Bruins can still end up with the 1st pick overall and do no worst than the 3rd pick.
     

  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from UCONN. Show UCONN's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 2:24 AM EDT

    Nice work. So assumming we get the #2 draft slot, looks like we have the following approximate odds for the 1-3 picks (which is what we'd be guarenteed)...

    odd taken from.......  http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=18342

    1st - 18.8%
    2nd - 58%  (chances that #'s 3-6 do NOT win the lottery)
    3rd - 39.2 (chances of any of the 3-6 teams winning the lottery - the only teams that could bump us from our default #2 pick).

    i think that's right?

    		 
    		 

    		 
    		 

    		 
    		 

    		 
    		 

    		 
    		 

    		 
    		 

     

  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from guyo77. Show guyo77's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 8:36 AM EDT

    The Islanders are going to mess it up for us.  As noted above they dont play any of the soon to be golfers so we likely slide to 3'rd. 

    It doesnt matter though - its the luck of the leaf curse in our favour - the bruins will end up with the 1'st overall pick in the lottery. 
     

  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from islamorada. Show islamorada's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 9:20 AM EDT

    In Response to Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent:
    Like I said in the other post about this.  Bruins control their own destiny as far as that pick igoes.  If they beat Toronto in regulation on Saturday, that will realistically (but not mathematically)  eliminate Toronto from being able to pass anyone.
    Posted by abra-cadaver


    Totally agree abra-cadaver.  The thread was a good read overall.  
     

  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 9:27 AM EDT

    In Response to Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent:
    The Islanders are going to mess it up for us.  As noted above they dont play any of the soon to be golfers so we likely slide to 3'rd.  It doesnt matter though - its the luck of the leaf curse in our favour - the bruins will end up with the 1'st overall pick in the lottery. 
    Posted by guyo77


    The Islanders COULD mess it up for us, but here is the likely (worst)  scenario,  if the Leafs win 3, The Isles just have to win 2.    The Isles have 6 games to win 2, The Leafs 5 games to win 3.

    Schedules:


     

  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 9:31 AM EDT

    Schedules:
    maple leafs play
    sabres 4/1
    bruins 4/3
    flyers 4/6
    rangers 4/7 
    habs 4/10


    bolts play
    pens 5/31
    rangers 4/2
    canes 4/6
    sens 4/8
    cats 4/10
    cats 4/11


    cats play
    bruins 4/1
    rangers 4/3
    sens 4/6
    devils 4/8
    bolts 4/10
    bolts 4/11


    isles play
    flyers
    sens
    habs
    pens
    devils
    pens


    canes play
    habs
    sens
    devils
    bolts 4/6
    habs
    bruins

    jackets play
    wings
    caps
    blues
    wings
    wings

     

  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from islamorada. Show islamorada's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 10:04 AM EDT

    The one consolation is the worst team in the league, Edmonton, has gone 3 - 6 - 1 in the last ten games.  If the Isles were to do the same with the 6 games left or something similar it would be 2 - 4 (four points) or 1-4-1 (three points) as their schedule is tough.  Then the Leafs then would have to win 4 of their last 5 games. That is possible.  The result is the Bruins do make it tough for Toronto by winning on Saturday!  
     

  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from LoveRealHockey. Show LoveRealHockey's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 10:21 AM EDT

    Bruins should beat the Leafs and end any hopes of the Leafs getting out of 2nd last place.  I like the Bruin chances to do this since they are still fighting for the playoffs and playing very tight defense.  Leafs have a bunch of kids playing and in tough to score many goals, which against Rask would even be tougher.

    Couple that with never being able to beat Miller and the Leafs look certain to lose the next 2 games for sure.

    Onward and upward......

     

  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from chrisbruinsfan. Show chrisbruinsfan's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 10:55 AM EDT

    Lets say worst case scenario the Leafs go 3-1-1 (I am being generous too)

    That would leave them with 76 points meaning the Islanders, Lightning and Panthers would all have to get 4 points in their final six games (to be tied). Then the first tiebreaker would be wins.

    Second tiebreaker would be points in the games played vs each other.

    I think we are looking good.

    Toronto's schedule is not easy.
     

  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 11:22 AM EDT

    I know one thing for sure.

    Tuuka BETTER be in net against the Leaves.
     

  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bookboy007. Show Bookboy007's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 11:56 AM EDT

    Wings, Blues, Caps, Wings, Wings!  Three of five remaining games against the Wings and another against the Pres. Trophy winners!  Good thing the BJs beat the Lightning or they'd be the team most likely to slip behind the loaves.

    It's entirely feasible that the Islanders lose all of those games, but I have to think at least one or two of them go extra time.  Then again, the Isles are 5-3-2 in their last 10, so who knows?  All it would take for them to win more than they lose is a resolution to the Pitt/NJ division battle. 

    And I might put a few shekels down on the proposition that TBay and Fla share 6 points in that home and home thanks to two OT games.  Even if they don't, I have to think the Cats get a few points out of their goaltending and the Bolts get a few points out of Stamkos gunning for the Richard Trophy and some small consoloation.
     

  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from paulmend. Show paulmend's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 12:03 PM EDT

    It's too bad some of the mentioned teams lost yesterday because coupled with the Leafs loss it would have been almost impossible for the Leafs to climb out! If the Isles would have held that 2-0 lead things would be looking brighter in my eyes!
     

  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 12:11 PM EDT

    In Response to Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent:
    Wings, Blues, Caps, Wings, Wings!  Three of five remaining games against the Wings and another against the Pres. Trophy winners!  Good thing the BJs beat the Lightning or they'd be the team most likely to slip behind the loaves. It's entirely feasible that the Islanders lose all of those games, but I have to think at least one or two of them go extra time.  Then again, the Isles are 5-3-2 in their last 10, so who knows?  All it would take for them to win more than they lose is a resolution to the Pitt/NJ division battle.  And I might put a few shekels down on the proposition that TBay and Fla share 6 points in that home and home thanks to two OT games.  Even if they don't, I have to think the Cats get a few points out of their goaltending and the Bolts get a few points out of Stamkos gunning for the Richard Trophy and some small consoloation.
    Posted by Bookboy007


    re: the BJ's, but same as for them as the Islanders, they just need to send 2 into OT and they can lose the rest and then that's a done deal.

    Math is currently not a friend of the Maple Leafs!


     

  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Clyde-Fitch. Show Clyde-Fitch's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 2:47 PM EDT

    check out this web site

    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

    It states that the Leafs have a 86% of fihishing LAST in the East


    Not the most sceintific, but pretty cool
     

  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from DrCC. Show DrCC's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 2:59 PM EDT

    In Response to Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent:
    check out this web site http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html It states that the Leafs have a 86% of fihishing LAST in the East Not the most sceintific, but pretty cool
    Posted by Clyde-Fitch


    I'd forgotten about that website.  I think it does about as good of a job as possible for such a complicated situation.  84% chance the Bruins get in the playoffs :)
    Hurricanes can help that (and the draft positions likelihood) tonight.
     

  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 11:22 PM EDT



    Updated after tonight

    The max number of pts the Leafs can now get is 79 - winning every game left.
    They have played more games than all the rest of the cellar dwellers.
    They do not play any of the other cellar dwellers the rest of the season.

    Columbus now has 77, so the Leafs will only surpass them if they win every game they have left and Columbus loses every game they have left.
    Not going to happen.

    Cats Bolts and Canes guaranteed points - because they play each other.
    Bolts now have 74, but play the Cats twice and the Canes once.
    Cats now have 72, but also play the Bolts twice + 1 games in hand.
    So they will either split or one will take 4 points.
    Bolts almost can't be surpassed now.

    So the Panthers could potentially be caught.

    Canes now have 75 pts and play the Bolts once, so one of these will get 2 additional points.
    So both the Canes and Panthers can virtually not be caught now.

    Islanders.  72 pts + 1 game in hand.  Islanders represent the only real potential problem.  They do not meet any of the other cellar dwellers the rest of the season.  3 pts and a game in hand. 

    Isles are 5-3-2 in their last 10,
    Leafs are 6-3-1 in their last 10.

    The only teams we really have to watch are the Panthers and Islanders, they are the only 2 teams that could realistically be caught by the Leafs, and of them I believe only the Isles can really practically be caught.

     

  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from TuukkainNet. Show TuukkainNet's posts

    Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick - they are excellent

    posted at 3/31/2010 11:32 PM EDT

    Looks like 76 might be the magic number...