Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent

Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/30/2010 11:33 PM EDT
Forgetting about the lottery, here are the numbers.
Leafs currently have 69 points.
The Oilers have clinched the #1 pick, at 55 pts even if they win all 6 games left they have 67 points.
The max number of pts the Leafs can now get is 79  winning every game left.
They have played more games than all the rest of the cellar dwellers.
They do not play any of the other cellar dwellers the rest of the season.
Columbus now has 77, so the Leafs will only surpass them if they win every game they have left and Columbus loses every game they have left.
Not going to happen.
Cats Bolts and Canes guaranteed points  because they play each other.
Bolts now have 72, but play the Cats twice and the Canes once + 1 game in hand.
Cats now have 72, but also play the Bolts twice + 2 games in hand.
So they will either split or one will take 4 points.
So you can give one 76 pts or both 74 pts right now.
So it is much more than likely they will surpass the maximum the Leafs can get (79).
Canes now have 73 pts + 1 game in hand and play the Bolts once, so one of these will get 2 additional points.
It is unlikely that the Leafs can catch them, although just possible I think.
Islanders. 72 pts + 1 game in hand. Here's the only real potential problem. They do not meet any of the other cellar dwellers the rest of the season. 3 pts and a game in hand.
Isles are 532 in their last 10,
Leafs are 631 in their last 10.
So I'm not that good at math and I can't tell you the exact odds, but I only see the Leafs being mathematically likely to catch the Isles and even then, like I said the Isles have 3 pts and a game in hand. 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/30/2010 11:55 PM EDT
Not to mention the Leafs will be playing 4 of the last 5 games against teams that are either just outside of the bubble looking in, or just inside the bubble looking out, all motivated to get 2 points. They don't play a team like the Isles who just want the season to end. 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 12:01 AM EDT
Like I said in the other post about this. Bruins control their own destiny as far as that pick igoes. If they beat Toronto in regulation on Saturday, that will realistically (but not mathematically) eliminate Toronto from being able to pass anyone. 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 12:03 AM EDT
Good job, BadHab. Florida has been playing decent lately, however I think fans should hope that Toronto loses more than those other teams win, considering TB, NYI, and FLA, are all tied with 72 pts. Toronto has a tough schedule and they face each of their division rivals minus Ottawa in their last 5 games. Add Philly and NYR, that is a tough order. I pray that they stumble. 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 12:23 AM EDT
Here's another number crunch,
If the Leafs win EVERY ONE of their games left, in order for the bruins to preserve the #2 overall then this has to happen
Blue Jackets win 2 of their last 5
Canes would need 4 of their last 5
Panthers Lightning and Islanders
would need 4 of their last 6
As I pointed out, since the Canes, Bolts and Panthers play each other in their last games, I think their winning 4 of their last 6 is actually quite possible.
The Leafs winning all the rest of their games is virtually impossible.
The Isles only need to keep pace by only a game, and their record has been almost as good as the Leafs in their last 10. 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 12:34 AM EDT
Great work Badhab, I like to think that with all the frustration and disappointment this year we at least deserve the #2 pick. 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 12:35 AM EDT
also add the fact that any ties in points and the leafs are considered the lower seed because of win total,so in actuality they have to get 4 more points than any other team in last 5 to get out of 29th spot. 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 12:43 AM EDT
In Response to Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent:also add the fact that any ties in points and the leafs are considered the lower seed because of win total,so in actuality they have to get 4 more points than any other team in last 5 to get out of 29th spot.
Posted by yukamatta409
I hadn't thought of that, I think that should make it virtually a lock.
Even without the ties, consider this, and this is the most reasonable, yet pessimistic (for the Bruins) prediction.
Leafs win 3 of their last 5
then in order to keep the #2
Jackets do not have to win any
Everyone else has to win 2, and all have at least one game in hand and the Panthers have 2. 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 1:08 AM EDT
In Response to Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent:Forgetting about the lottery, here are the numbers. Leafs currently have 69 points. The Oilers have clinched the #1 pick, at 55 pts even if they win all 6 games left they have 67 points. Posted by BadHabitude
Your right when you say that the Oilers have the number pick, but that's only on paper right now, as they have not "clinched" anything yet as there is still the draft lottery to consider.
The 5 teams with the worst record in the NHL all have a chance to land the #1 pick overall as teams can move up a max. 4 spots but can't drop more than 1 spot in the draft.
The only thing we know for sure is that the worst the Oilers can do is pick 2nd and the best is the 1st pick overall.
Toronto can end the season with the 2nd lowest point total and the Bruins can still end up with the 1st pick overall and do no worst than the 3rd pick. 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 2:24 AM EDT
Nice work. So assumming we get the #2 draft slot, looks like we have the following approximate odds for the 13 picks (which is what we'd be guarenteed)...
odd taken from....... http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=18342
1st  18.8%
2nd  58% (chances that #'s 36 do NOT win the lottery)
3rd  39.2 (chances of any of the 36 teams winning the lottery  the only teams that could bump us from our default #2 pick).
i think that's right? 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 8:36 AM EDT
The Islanders are going to mess it up for us. As noted above they dont play any of the soon to be golfers so we likely slide to 3'rd.
It doesnt matter though  its the luck of the leaf curse in our favour  the bruins will end up with the 1'st overall pick in the lottery. 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 9:20 AM EDT
In Response to Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent:Like I said in the other post about this. Bruins control their own destiny as far as that pick igoes. If they beat Toronto in regulation on Saturday, that will realistically (but not mathematically) eliminate Toronto from being able to pass anyone.
Posted by abracadaverTotally agree abracadaver. The thread was a good read overall. 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 9:27 AM EDT
In Response to Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent:The Islanders are going to mess it up for us. As noted above they dont play any of the soon to be golfers so we likely slide to 3'rd. It doesnt matter though  its the luck of the leaf curse in our favour  the bruins will end up with the 1'st overall pick in the lottery.
Posted by guyo77
The Islanders COULD mess it up for us, but here is the likely (worst) scenario, if the Leafs win 3, The Isles just have to win 2. The Isles have 6 games to win 2, The Leafs 5 games to win 3.
Schedules: 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 9:31 AM EDT
Schedules:
maple leafs play sabres 4/1 bruins 4/3 flyers 4/6 rangers 4/7 habs 4/10
bolts play pens 5/31 rangers 4/2 canes 4/6 sens 4/8 cats 4/10 cats 4/11
cats play bruins 4/1 rangers 4/3 sens 4/6 devils 4/8 bolts 4/10 bolts 4/11
isles play flyers sens habs pens devils pens
canes play habs sens devils bolts 4/6 habs bruins
jackets play wings caps blues wings wings 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 10:04 AM EDT
The one consolation is the worst team in the league, Edmonton, has gone 3  6  1 in the last ten games. If the Isles were to do the same with the 6 games left or something similar it would be 2  4 (four points) or 141 (three points) as their schedule is tough. Then the Leafs then would have to win 4 of their last 5 games. That is possible. The result is the Bruins do make it tough for Toronto by winning on Saturday! 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 10:21 AM EDT
Bruins should beat the Leafs and end any hopes of the Leafs getting out of 2nd last place. I like the Bruin chances to do this since they are still fighting for the playoffs and playing very tight defense. Leafs have a bunch of kids playing and in tough to score many goals, which against Rask would even be tougher.
Couple that with never being able to beat Miller and the Leafs look certain to lose the next 2 games for sure.
Onward and upward...... 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 10:55 AM EDT
Lets say worst case scenario the Leafs go 311 (I am being generous too)
That would leave them with 76 points meaning the Islanders, Lightning and Panthers would all have to get 4 points in their final six games (to be tied). Then the first tiebreaker would be wins.
Second tiebreaker would be points in the games played vs each other.
I think we are looking good.
Toronto's schedule is not easy. 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 11:22 AM EDT
I know one thing for sure.
Tuuka BETTER be in net against the Leaves. 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 11:56 AM EDT
Wings, Blues, Caps, Wings, Wings! Three of five remaining games against the Wings and another against the Pres. Trophy winners! Good thing the BJs beat the Lightning or they'd be the team most likely to slip behind the loaves.
It's entirely feasible that the Islanders lose all of those games, but I have to think at least one or two of them go extra time. Then again, the Isles are 532 in their last 10, so who knows? All it would take for them to win more than they lose is a resolution to the Pitt/NJ division battle.
And I might put a few shekels down on the proposition that TBay and Fla share 6 points in that home and home thanks to two OT games. Even if they don't, I have to think the Cats get a few points out of their goaltending and the Bolts get a few points out of Stamkos gunning for the Richard Trophy and some small consoloation. 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 12:03 PM EDT
It's too bad some of the mentioned teams lost yesterday because coupled with the Leafs loss it would have been almost impossible for the Leafs to climb out! If the Isles would have held that 20 lead things would be looking brighter in my eyes! 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 12:11 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent:Wings, Blues, Caps, Wings, Wings! Three of five remaining games against the Wings and another against the Pres. Trophy winners! Good thing the BJs beat the Lightning or they'd be the team most likely to slip behind the loaves. It's entirely feasible that the Islanders lose all of those games, but I have to think at least one or two of them go extra time. Then again, the Isles are 532 in their last 10, so who knows? All it would take for them to win more than they lose is a resolution to the Pitt/NJ division battle. And I might put a few shekels down on the proposition that TBay and Fla share 6 points in that home and home thanks to two OT games. Even if they don't, I have to think the Cats get a few points out of their goaltending and the Bolts get a few points out of Stamkos gunning for the Richard Trophy and some small consoloation.
Posted by Bookboy007
re: the BJ's, but same as for them as the Islanders, they just need to send 2 into OT and they can lose the rest and then that's a done deal.
Math is currently not a friend of the Maple Leafs! 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 2:47 PM EDT
check out this web site
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
It states that the Leafs have a 86% of fihishing LAST in the East
Not the most sceintific, but pretty cool 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 2:59 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent:check out this web site http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html It states that the Leafs have a 86% of fihishing LAST in the East Not the most sceintific, but pretty cool
Posted by ClydeFitch
I'd forgotten about that website. I think it does about as good of a job as possible for such a complicated situation. 84% chance the Bruins get in the playoffs :)
Hurricanes can help that (and the draft positions likelihood) tonight. 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 11:22 PM EDT
Updated after tonight
The max number of pts the Leafs can now get is 79  winning every game left.
They have played more games than all the rest of the cellar dwellers.
They do not play any of the other cellar dwellers the rest of the season.
Columbus now has 77, so the Leafs will only surpass them if they win every game they have left and Columbus loses every game they have left.
Not going to happen.
Cats Bolts and Canes guaranteed points  because they play each other.
Bolts now have 74, but play the Cats twice and the Canes once.
Cats now have 72, but also play the Bolts twice + 1 games in hand.
So they will either split or one will take 4 points.
Bolts almost can't be surpassed now.
So the Panthers could potentially be caught.
Canes now have 75 pts and play the Bolts once, so one of these will get 2 additional points.
So both the Canes and Panthers can virtually not be caught now.
Islanders. 72 pts + 1 game in hand. Islanders represent the only real potential problem. They do not meet any of the other cellar dwellers the rest of the season. 3 pts and a game in hand.
Isles are 532 in their last 10,
Leafs are 631 in their last 10.
The only teams we really have to watch are the Panthers and Islanders, they are the only 2 teams that could realistically be caught by the Leafs, and of them I believe only the Isles can really practically be caught. 
Re: Number crunching Bruins odds of getting #2 pick  they are excellent
posted at 3/31/2010 11:32 PM EDT
Looks like 76 might be the magic number...