Some stats regarding Kessel vs Draft picks
posted at 9/21/2009 10:19 AM EDTThere were eight players under the age of 25 in the NHL last season that scored at least .50 goals per game and Kessel was the youngest of them by two years.
Kessel tied with Chara and Jeff Carter (among others) in plus/minus stats last season.
Middle of the pack first round draft picks (where the Leafs will likely finish in the next 2 years) face a less than 60% chance of playing 100+ NHL games.
A second round pick would fall closer to a 30% chance of playing 100+ NHL games.
Bottom line? The cost of 3 draft picks is significant but if the Leafs finish in the middle of the pack, the draft picks aren't as likely to become first-line talents while Kessel is an elite level talent for whom the Bruins may get a couple of roster players out of the deal.
Re: Some stats regarding Kessel vs Draft picks
posted at 9/21/2009 10:29 AM EDTSo many ways things could go. I think Muir (or whoever it was) had it right - this trade was a gamble by both teams. Burke betting that with Kessel, he could build a good team without drafting anyone and Chiarelli betting that he will be able to do something useful with these draft picks.
If the draft picks get used to pick up a key rental player at the trade deadline, it won't matter how well the Leafs do.
Some reports indicate that this year's draft will be deep (earlier in the summer people were saying it will be one of the worst drafts in years, so who knows?). If that is the case, a bad team like the Islanders that already have franchise stars might be interested in a two-for-one swap, letting them pick up quality depth and giving the Bruins a higher pick and better chance at an immediate roster player. Lot's of 'if's there, of course.
My bottom line? Any way this could have gone the Bruins would have ended up loosing a valuable roster player. This way, at least they have a shot at getting a replacement in the future, however much of a crap-shot it is.