Teams are Paying the Price for Beating the Bruins

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BruinsUnite. Show BruinsUnite's posts

    Teams are Paying the Price for Beating the Bruins

    What happened to the Bruins? Wrong question.

    What happens to teams who play and beat the Bruins? Right question.

    Answer: Exhaustion is a factor. Let the facts speak for themselves:

    Phoenix beats Boston by one goal in January, and goes on to lose their next game by 4 goals, and the next by 1, including a loss to the Islanders, who are currently in last place in the Eastern Conference.

    The NY Rangers: After losing to Boston in January, they come back to beat Boston by one goal in March, and go on to lose their next game by 3 goals last Monday to Carolina, which is now in 8th place in the Eastern Conference.

    Florida beats Boston by one goal, and lose their next game by 4 goals--to Boston.

    Washington: January. They beat Boston by 1, win the next game in OT against the Islanders, and go on to lose the next 2 games by 1.

    Washington: February. Win in OT against Boston, and have not won a game since, losing the next game by 4, the next by 3, then by 1, and 1 again.

    Nashville beats Boston by one goal, and goes on to lose their next game by 2 goals to Ottawa, currently in 12th place in the Eastern Conference. Nashville then loses the following game by 4, and the next by 1.

    New Jersey: January. They appear to be the exception, but that's an oversimplification. They beat Boston by 1 in January, won their next game by 1 in OT, and lost the next by 3. The aftermath of playing Boston was to become even more evident in February.

    New Jersey: February. They beat Boston again by 1 goal in February, won their next game by 1, and lost the next by 4. To Florida.

    Minnesota beats Boston by 1 in January, and then loses by 2, followed by another 2 goal loss to Columbus.


    San Jose beats Boston by 2 in February, including an empty netter and penalty shot by rookie Steven Stamkos, and then goes on to lose the next 3 games before getting back on their winning streak in February, which lasted for 4 games. After their 4-game winning streak, they won by 1 goal against Ottawa, and lost the subsequent 4 games, including a 3-goal loss to Dallas last week.


    Tampa Bay wins by 1 against Boston, and then go on to lose their next 2 games by 2 and 1, followed by a 1-goal win, and 3 more losses by 2, 1 and 1. They go on to win one game and lose the next 3.


    Philadelphia: February. Beats Boston in overtime with a goal deflected off a Bruin skate, and goes on to lose to the Bruins in the next game. They then win one more game against Atlanta, and lost to Ottawa by 3 goals.


    Philadelphia: March. Beats Boston by 2, a game in which Nittymaki robbed Krejci with a save-of-the-week, and in which another deflected goal got past Fernandez. Philadelphia then goes on to lose the next game by 4 before beating Nashville on March 7th.


    And there you have it. Playing the Bruins, and winning games against them, in particular, is taking its toll on other teams. Apparently, you can't give 200% every night, as you do when you meet the Bruins. They were the 'team to beat', indeed, but at what price? Quite a few points have been sacrificed in return. Eventually, the stats will even-out, and the Bruins will continue to accumulate points for all their hard work.


    The only real tragedy in this story would be psychological: Hopefully, the boys aren't fooled by their losses, which do not seem to indicate failure on their part, but a tremendous challenge created for even the best teams out there.


    The Bruins have raised the bar, and the rest have had to increase the quality of their performance. But remember this: There's a good reason why Lance Armstrong doesn't compete throughout the year before he goes on to win the Tour de France. It would be too exhausting. His eye is on the big prize.


    This is by far not meant as a complete explanation of current events. But sometimes the facts aren't all in the details. Sometimes, it helps to step back and look at the broader picture.


    DP

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Teams are Paying the Price for Beating the Bruins

    Interesting stats , great research.

    But although I would like to believe , I think it has more to do with salary cap era hockey and coincidence. The salary cap has made it difficult for teams to dominate night after night.

    For the same reason, I think perhaps the Bruins played better than expected earlier in the year and now teams are aware that they are for real and are playing them tougher. With every loss or close win to a weaker team ,the younger Bruins are maybe starting to doubt whether they are contenders. Having a player like Recchi on the team is a big plus. It is no accident that the front office went after a veteran who has been in these type situations before...it also helps that he shoots left, we needed more lefthand shooting forwards. Give this a chance, Recchi has only been a Bruin for a week. He is a perfect fit for this team in need of veteran leaders.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Olsonic. Show Olsonic's posts

    Teams are Paying the Price for Beating the Bruins

    First, by only listing what is happening to these teams AFTER they play the bruins, is only reporting HALF the story.

    you could just as easily say the bruins are losing to teams that aren't even playing well around the time they beat the bruins
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jerrynewyork. Show jerrynewyork's posts

    Teams are Paying the Price for Beating the Bruins

    BruinsUnite got it exactly right
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from dom77. Show dom77's posts

    Teams are Paying the Price for Beating the Bruins

    Interesting analysis
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from BruinsUnite. Show BruinsUnite's posts

    Teams are Paying the Price for Beating the Bruins

    Zilla, I see your point, and no one story is the whole story without looking at several factors that dig a little deeper than mere stats, salary, and so on. But I do think it especially astonishing that after playing the Bruins, you have an almost certain probability of losing your next game.

    Of course, teams have been giving the bruins their best efforts. But this can't go on forever. There is a finite amount of energy. In the end, the ones who will prevail are the teams / players who stick it out in the face of adversity and occasional discouragement.

    Losing is hard, as is winning (dealing with being in 1st place isn't easy). But San Jose did it too. After dominating, the losing streak was horrible.

    All I'm saying is, there is always a way to make things better, but the guys should probably just stick to what they have, and remember that they are not necessarily messing up every time they lose. Sometimes, the best teams will lose because they have ben picked out as the targets.

    Great contribution, by the way.

    DP
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from BruinsUnite. Show BruinsUnite's posts

    Teams are Paying the Price for Beating the Bruins

    [Quote]First, by only listing what is happening to these teams AFTER they play the bruins, is only reporting HALF the story.

    you could just as easily say the bruins are losing to teams that aren't even playing well around the time they beat the bruins[/Quote]

    Olsonic: true that not all the stats are here. I did not want to bore you with the prior stats, but the truth is, their former performance does not indicate that the Bruins are losing to teams not playing well. Quite the contrary: Good teams are losing after beating the Bruins.

    DP
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from dhitch. Show dhitch's posts

    Teams are Paying the Price for Beating the Bruins

    Interesting analysis and good statitical work...but soo many contributing factors besides exhaustion that its tough to contribute everything to the Bruins wearing teams down faster than others.

    I for one would start to worry a bit, eyes on the prize or not...confidence is everything and you are in trouble going into the playoffs with a terrible streak going. Teams that succeed are usually the teams lighting it up in march.

    Montreal loses a few games straight and they bench Kovalev...they stay in the middle of the pack and fire their coach...its time for boston to act. guys like Krejci (0-0-0 in last 5 games) is just unacceptable. He should be down in the AHL as punishment for a few games. Light a spark already...get these guys firing on all cylinders again. The offense reminds me of 07-08.
     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bruinfaninnewjersey. Show Bruinfaninnewjersey's posts

    Teams are Paying the Price for Beating the Bruins

    Thumbs up for the research that went into that analysis!

    I have to agree with Olsonic that this is only half the story though... maybe research how each of those teams did in the 5 games before playing us?
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from BruinsUnite. Show BruinsUnite's posts

    Teams are Paying the Price for Beating the Bruins

    [Quote]Thumbs up for the research that went into that analysis!

    I gott go with Olsonic that this is only half the story though... maybe research how each of those teams did in the 5 games before playing us?[/Quote]

    Yes. I have a graph and everything--haha.

    What I did was to look at the probability that the teams would lose, irrespective of who they played before (a general likelihood, overall), and compared that with the probability that they would lose after playing Boston. It's much higher, and, shockingly, almost certain, if you look at games played in 2009, since the start of January.

    It's not obvious whether 'exhaustion' is the best description, I grant you, but there is certainly something about playing Boston that has tended to always precede a loss, except in the 2 cases, cited above.

    These were not just teams I chose. These are all the teams Boston played.

    Say what one will about what the explanation is, when a statistical regularity of this kind appears, it merits attention. Without causation, the probability would not be so high.

    What is that causal factor? Something to do with who they played, I presume. You may have a better explanation than mine, but these don't appear to be statistical coincidences.
     

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