"Prospects" and FA status

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from SanDogBrewin. Show SanDogBrewin's posts

    Re: "Prospects" and FA status

    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status:
    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status : Cause SanDog said the busboy thing. Posted by BadHabitude


    K that joke is old n outdated now. We all know if your wife wasn't there with her boss that clown would've been wearing that table around his neck.

    You should read more https://twitter.com/kluedeke29 in regards to Bruins prospects. Don't always agree with Kirk but he has a real good grip his assessments.

    Don't judge on prospects until you have seen them on the ice against NHL caliber players is what most of us are trying to explain to you.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bookboy007. Show Bookboy007's posts

    Re: "Prospects" and FA status

    Sometimes, though, that method is like saying "don't judge what might happen to your Ford Pinto until it's been rear-ended by an el Camino."

    You know it's going to explode.  You don't need to see it.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Orrthebest. Show Orrthebest's posts

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    Sweedish fans are saying the Yeti AKA Carl Soderberg is seriously thinking of coming over next year.  He scored at almost a point per game in the SEL (the top league) this year and is supposed to be very good defensively.  Here is a highlight package: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZTzFpH5rn8
     
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    Sometimes, though, that method is like saying "don't judge what might happen to your Ford Pinto until it's been rear-ended by an el Camino." You know it's going to explode.  You don't need to see it. Posted by Bookboy007


    Ahh some can tell if an NHL prospect has a faulty gas tank by looking at HockeyDB or by reading what a blogger writes about them K.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

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    Sweedish fans are saying the Yeti AKA Carl Soderberg is seriously thinking of coming over next year.  He scored at almost a point per game in the SEL (the top league) this year and is supposed to be very good defensively.  Here is a highlight package: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZTzFpH5rn8
    Posted by Orrthebest

    I can't see that highlight reel, but looking at his stats (yes... I know), but his stats are more relevant now that he's turned pro.  And if he isn't lighting it up in the Sedish elite leagues he isn't going to do it in the nhl.  It's not like we're talking about a prospect here, he's 26 already, I mean Zach Hamill is 3 years younger than Soderberg.

    Off the backboards, off his backside and in the net.  What else is there to know?  The baddest of bad goals.

    And yah, I was reaching on Kuznetsov.  I was on a rant and it's well known you can't speak logically with me at that point.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Orrthebest. Show Orrthebest's posts

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    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status:
    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status : I can't see that highlight reel, but looking at his stats (yes... I know), but his stats are more relevant now that he's turned pro.  And if he isn't lighting it up in the Sedish elite leagues he isn't going to do it in the nhl.  It's not like we're talking about a prospect here, he's 26 already, I mean Zach Hamill is 3 years younger than Soderberg. Off the backboards, off his backside and in the net.  What else is there to know?  The baddest of bad goals. And yah, I was reaching on Kuznetsov.  I was on a rant and it's well known you can't speak logically with me at that point.
    Posted by BadHabitude


    Let me spell it out for you.  According to behind the net the strength of the SEL is .78 of the NHL: http://behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.html Soderberg scored 35 points in 42 games: .833 points per games times .78 gives a point per game of .65.  .65 times 82 games is 53 points.  So if the Bruins can add a 6'3 207 lbs player who plays center or wing, is good defensively, should put up close to 50 points and should sign for less than 2 million, is that a bad thing?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

    Re: "Prospects" and FA status

    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status:
    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status : Let me spell it out for you.  According to behind the net the strength of the SEL is .78 of the NHL: http://behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.html Soderberg scored 35 points in 42 games: .833 points per games times .78 gives a point per game of .65.  .65 times 82 games is 53 points.  So if the Bruins can add a 6'3 207 lbs player who plays center or wing, is good defensively, should put up close to 50 points and should sign for less than 2 million, is that a bad thing?
    Posted by Orrthebest

    The behind the net thing - first, you're taking those numbers out of context.  You can't apply this .78 to individual players.  If it were that way there are NHL 20 goal scorers growing on trees in Sweden and Russia.  There simply isn't that much of that kind of talent out there.

    Since I can't see the clip you posted as its banned in my country, I wonder if it's the same highlight reel I've seen before when he was playing for Malmo.

    Malmo is in Swe-1

    Sweden has 2 leagues, SEL and Swe-1.

    Carl has spent most of his time in Swe-1.
    And note his numbers seems to be declining in Swe-1

    SEL is the better league.

    Hockey's Future gives him 7.0 F

    Here's Carl's team
    Look through that list of guys and check how many have put in time in the NHL or AHL.  Who did you notice on that list?  Are those guys .78 of NHL caliber?  I don't think so.


    2006-2007 he suffers a severe eye injury from a high stick.  He was out for 3 months.  Pretty severe injury.  I wonder if he really has fully recovered or not.  The lack of vision in one eye is a pretty huge disadvantage.  Ask Willie O'Ree about htat.

    He has never shown up for a Bruins camp, rookie or otherwise.  Why not?  It's not like showing up to camp is a commitment to play.  And by and large the players say they learn a lot at camp.  And as far as I understand he never showed up for the Blues camp either.

    He's not coming to America.  Even if he did, I would project 25-30 pts would be the utmost highest he could ever produce in the NHL and that would be like Tyler scoring 50 goals next year.

    So it comes to this, he's a 3rd or 4th line guy in the NHL.  And a 1st line guy in Sweden.  Plus they have Swedish chicks in Sweden and his mom's home cooking.  He's a really bright guy -  I heard he was a medical student or something like that, so he can have a productive career after hockey.  So what is his motive for coming here and taking a beating?






     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from felixwas. Show felixwas's posts

    Re: "Prospects" and FA status

    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status:
    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status : In addition to bad stats, I think the youtube clips show that this guy would have a rough time in the ncaa or juniors.  The league has a smattering of guys who were washouts from the ahl\nhl and they are rare.  Then there are a lot of guys who look like they retire from the Swedish Elite League and go there.  Then they must have a limit on foreign player because each team only looks like it has a few. More perspective, Bruins fans might be familiar with these 2 guys who are stars in this league, leading scoring on their teams. Peter Tenkrat (33 last year) led his team in scoring last year. Ivan Huml   (30 this year) led his team in scoring this year.
    Posted by BadHabitude



    Ivan Huml! That's the first time I've seen anyone refer to him here. If this were "Jeopardy," I don't think I could come up with a question for him.
     
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    Re: "Prospects" and FA status

    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status:
    Sweedish fans are saying the Yeti AKA Carl Soderberg is seriously thinking of coming over next year.  He scored at almost a point per game in the SEL (the top league) this year and is supposed to be very good defensively.  Here is a highlight package: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZTzFpH5rn8
    Posted by Orrthebest


    In a league where AHL players are in the Top 10 in scoring, this louse didn't even finish first on his own team in scoring.

    He doesn't come to North America to play hockey because he'd spend his time shuttling between the AHL and ECHL.

    Never have I heard of a prospect who never played here draw so much attention.  He's not even any good by NHL standards!
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bookboy007. Show Bookboy007's posts

    Re: "Prospects" and FA status

    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status:
    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status : Ahh some can tell if an NHL prospect has a faulty gas tank by looking at HockeyDB or by reading what a blogger writes about them K.
    Posted by SanDogBrewin


    My point was you don't necessarily need to see them against NHL competition. 
    My first response was "No, it's some can tell from watching a guy against AHL competition and Junior competition that the player has no shot in the NHL."  But when I think about it...yeah, in some cases I can look at the available numbers and have a pretty good sense.  Perfect?  No.  But then, how many players bounce around and play against NHL competition for a few years before they finally break out?  Knuble, St. Louis...it took Glen Murray five years to score more than 20 goals, and Brian Rafalski had to play four years in Europe before he got a shot at an 800+ game, 500+ point NHL career.  No method of player assessment is perfect or even close enough that every team doesn't have routine stories of guys they let slip to the fifth round of the draft, guys they traded away for the rights to Swedish Yetis, guys they chose not to qualify because they were convinced he was a bust.  On the other side, there's all the guys every scout and stat said should be a franchise player who turned out to be a bust.  Against that standard, I'll take my chances and say that that fifth year junior's sudden 50 point jump in scoring is an anomaly that won't translate to higher level competition, that that 6'6" kid in juniors who scores 40 garbage goals isn't going to make a mark on the NHL because he won't be that much bigger and stronger than those around him in the NHL and he can't skate (Wanvig, Zultek...this is you).

    I'm not saying that makes me smart.  I'm saying that there are some pretty typical scenarios that will lead you to the right conclusion 8/10 times.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

    Re: "Prospects" and FA status

    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status:
    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status : My point was you don't necessarily need to see them against NHL competition.  My first response was "No, it's some can tell from watching a guy against AHL competition and Junior competition that the player has no shot in the NHL."  But when I think about it...yeah, in some cases I can look at the available numbers and have a pretty good sense.  Perfect?  No.  But then, how many players bounce around and play against NHL competition for a few years before they finally break out?  Knuble, St. Louis...it took Glen Murray five years to score more than 20 goals, and Brian Rafalski had to play four years in Europe before he got a shot at an 800+ game, 500+ point NHL career.  No method of player assessment is perfect or even close enough that every team doesn't have routine stories of guys they let slip to the fifth round of the draft, guys they traded away for the rights to Swedish Yetis, guys they chose not to qualify because they were convinced he was a bust.  On the other side, there's all the guys every scout and stat said should be a franchise player who turned out to be a bust.  Against that standard, I'll take my chances and say that that fifth year junior's sudden 50 point jump in scoring is an anomaly that won't translate to higher level competition, that that 6'6" kid in juniors who scores 40 garbage goals isn't going to make a mark on the NHL because he won't be that much bigger and stronger than those around him in the NHL and he can't skate (Wanvig, Zultek...this is you). I'm not saying that makes me smart.  I'm saying that there are some pretty typical scenarios that will lead you to the right conclusion 8/10 times.
    Posted by Bookboy007

    What if I said that?  If I said that, I'd be out of here! 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bookboy007. Show Bookboy007's posts

    Re: "Prospects" and FA status

    Yep.  I'll be surprised if you're not outta here because I said it....
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bookboy007. Show Bookboy007's posts

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    Seriously, though - there are about 630 NHL jobs if you count scratches.  Every draft, they bring in 210 players to the player pool, and they top that off with undrafted FAs like Krug, Courchaine, Riendeau.  The odds of a player making it are slim, and they're slimmer if you expect him to be an impact player.  Here's a baseline: http://proicehockey.about.com/od/prospects/f/draft_success.htm

    So 19% of drafted players overall, 63% of 1st rounders, 25% for 2nd rounders, and 12% after that.  The article says nothing about undrafted FAs, but I'll guess the number is pretty low.  So it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that you'll be right about 80% of the time if you say "that guy's got no shot" about anyone not picked in the first round.  No need to see them against NHL competition.

    When we have these conversations, if we really want to get into it, we should stick to first and second rounders where 2 in 3 and 1 in 4 will actually make it. Then someone could say of Hamilton (I'm making this up completely) that, from watching him play, they see he has a first step as a defenseman that almost instantly breaks down the angles on a trap system because he can be by that first forechecker and open up lanes most other D wouldn't have available - so he's going to be a star! Someone else can then say not so fast: his CorsiOLP/GEDSATS are .00835981 lower than the average for defensemen who averaged more than 33 points per season over the last five seasons, so no, he won't make the NHL.

    Then you're playing with real money, so to speak, because the odds are close enough to even that you can't default to him failing, and you're debating NHL star vs. bust, so a 250 game career isn't a tie.
     
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    Re: "Prospects" and FA status

    "Knuble, St. Louis...it took Glen Murray five years to score more than 20 goals, and Brian Rafalski had to play four years in Europe before he got a shot at an 800+ game, 500+ point NHL career."

    This is good discussion to take us to the draft, I like these threads. Ok so what was it about players like the ones mentioned above that kept AHL coaches n GMs to mutter "Let's keep them around" ? or is it just to keep the AHL roster full...

    Or was it on that 20th or so call up they just finally got "it" ? Was a bit of luck because the AHL players NHL team was just going through a rash of injury's ?

    Edit: What will always be my point is when an NHL caliber center puts a sweet back hand pass on a 2nd rounders stick or when that C/LW puts a great pass on a 25+ finishers stick are unknown if he is playing a with a 29 year old-just called-up-from-Reading-grinder-mucker.
     
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    And I have to restate what I always have about my favorite, the improving stats.  It just stands to reason that you must be improving if you're going to play in the NHL.  If your stats stay flat or drop, you're probably not improving and that won't get you to the next level.  Yes, there are always exceptions, but it's true for the majority of players.  And of course for the really great ones their numbers just skyrocket straight up.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

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    Another point, yah, the draft isn't a science and being reasonable you can expect that most players won't make it.

    Accepted.

    But that doesn't mean that utterly stupid picks are acceptable.

    And I really don't like a few of the picks they've made.  Just like a great players great numbers in juniors scream out something special, a players really bad numbers in juniors are a huge red flag.

    I don't expect the Bruins to be perfect at doing this, they aren't the worst team in the league at drafting, but I would like them to be much better than they are.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bookboy007. Show Bookboy007's posts

    Re: "Prospects" and FA status

    Re: your Edit, SD - I think there's a small subset of guys who are Rob Browns and Blair MacDonald's, but they are few and far.  Probably an even smaller group who are genuinely unable to show their talents because they play with bums.  You chose a really good example, though - not a hidden Stamkos or Crosby, but a second line winger like an Andrew Brunette or Mark Parrish who will never score 50 but in the right context can give you between 20 and 30.

    The biggest variable is probably chemistry, and I don't know that you can predict that.  Look at a guy like Geoff Sanderson.  40 goal threat for half a decade in Hartford playing with Cassels.  Then he drops off the earth.  Three years later, he finds his game again playing with Knutzen and Heinze (?!?!) and puts up 30.  Next year - chemistry's gone and he's injured.  His last good year as a Jacket, he's reunited with Cassels and puts up 34 in Rick Nash's rookie year.  Then Cassels is gone, then he's traded, there's a lockout...and he has one last good year three years later playing with Mike Comrie.  When Sanderson had a C he could play with, he was a scoring threat off the wing.  When he didn't, he looked lost.

    That said, I usually find the "he needs better players around him" argument to be a convenient excuse.  It's not usually a question of quality but fit and system.  There are exceptions, but those exceptions are usually related to good players becoming great or great players being dominant and not an AHLer with an NHL shot toiling in obscurity until he gets his chance.  Much more common to have a Brandon Bochenski who, for a short period of time, plays with a guy like Jason Spezza and uses his best asset - his shot - to make a splash, but as soon as the other team stops ignoring the no-name call-up, he disappears again.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bookboy007. Show Bookboy007's posts

    Re: "Prospects" and FA status

    How 'bout this stat line for a forward:

    Jr. A - 50 games, 9 goals, 14 assists, 23 points, 100Pims
    Jr - 62 games, 9-10-19 and 149Pims.

    Would you take that guy in the second round?
     
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    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status:
    How 'bout this stat line for a forward: Jr. A - 50 games, 9 goals, 14 assists, 23 points, 100Pims Jr - 62 games, 9-10-19 and 149Pims. Would you take that guy in the second round?
    Posted by Bookboy007


    1) absolutely not.
    2) absolutely.
    3) maybe.

    I don't understand what point you're trying to make.
     
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    Re: "Prospects" and FA status

    I believe he is referencing Mr. Milan Lucic when he was drafted and didn't have his breakout junior season until the following year.  Whatever inspired the scouts, they sure nailed it with a late 2nd round pick (with only 19 points).

    The Sanderson-Cassels-Verbeek line was a very effective one in Hartford, and Cassels was no doubt a great center for Sanderson, but the totals in the Hartford years probably had a lot to do with getting unquestioned 1st line minutes and PP time in every game.  Sanderson never really had that opportunity again.  He had an all-star release and shot, but a pretty limited game otherwise.  Cassels could pass like Savard, but didn't do much else either.  As those two moved on from the lowly teams in Hartford, they never saw 1st line muinutes again, did they?  Theirs was a combination of chemistry and opportunity. 
     
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    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status:
    I believe he is referencing Mr. Milan Lucic when he was drafted and didn't have his breakout junior season until the following year.  Whatever inspired the scouts, they sure nailed it with a late 2nd round pick (with only 19 points). The Sanderson-Cassels-Verbeek line was a very effective one in Hartford, and Cassels was no doubt a great center for Sanderson, but the totals in the Hartford years probably had a lot to do with getting unquestioned 1st line minutes and PP time in every game.  Sanderson never really had that opportunity again.  He had an all-star release and shot, but a pretty limited game otherwise.  Cassels could pass like Savard, but didn't do much else either.  As those two moved on from the lowly teams in Hartford, they never saw 1st line muinutes again, did they?  Theirs was a combination of chemistry and opportunity. 
    Posted by Fletcher1


    There's a few examples of this where the scouts (or a coach) sees something the stats don't show.

    Take the Jets grabbing Mark Scheifele last year. He was just 7 months removed from his Jr. B team and all the pundits thought the Jets were nuts for taking him that high. All he did was play well enough to make the club out of camp as an 18 year-old. When he was sent back to junior for seasoning, he ended up improving his poinnt per game avg, and then took a Colts team that had been in the basement of the OHL last year, into the second round this year. Now he's contributing for the Ice Caps as they try to get to the Calder finals their first year in the league. (though they got smoked in the Conference finals opener last night, 6-1)

    I have no idea what the Jets saw in him (thanks to advice from Hawerchuk) that other scouts and the pundits missed, and it certainly wasn't based exclusively on stats, but early on it seems so far like they nailed this one.
     
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    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status:
    As those two moved on from the lowly teams in Hartford, they never saw 1st line muinutes again, did they?  Theirs was a combination of chemistry and opportunity. 
    Posted by Fletcher1


    Sanderson's role didn't change at first when the team moved to Carolina; he played his way out of 1st line minutes. He had them for sure with the expansion CBJ, and they tried to feed them to him in Buffalo.
     
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    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status:
    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status : Sanderson's role didn't change at first when the team moved to Carolina; he played his way out of 1st line minutes. He had them for sure with the expansion CBJ, and they tried to feed them to him in Buffalo.
    Posted by Bookboy007


    Right, I think it was chemistry (a center like Cassels) and opportunity (ice time).  When either one was removed, he floundered.  In Carolina, he didn't have Cassels.  In Buffalo he never got 1st line minutes, and for a few years in Columbus, he didn't have either.  It was never as good as in Hartford, since they had not a single notable forward playing behind the Sandy-Cassels-Verbeek line.  It was the best of times...
     
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    Re: "Prospects" and FA status

    One thing, amongst many others, Julien has done well with young players is when he does have rookie and they playing well during a game he will move them up a line to play with the better center. This is where the younger Bruins prospects have to make there mark when called up or it is going to be more one-year-stop-gap-mucker-grinders for years to come.

    I needed a calculator to keep track of how many times I mentioned "Marchand just isn't getting it" but Julien stuck with him telling the media "give it some time" and it worked.
     
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    Re: "Prospects" and FA status

    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status:
    In Response to Re: "Prospects" and FA status : There's a few examples of this where the scouts (or a coach) sees something the stats don't show. Take the Jets grabbing Mark Scheifele last year. He was just 7 months removed from his Jr. B team and all the pundits thought the Jets were nuts for taking him that high. All he did was play well enough to make the club out of camp as an 18 year-old. When he was sent back to junior for seasoning, he ended up improving his poinnt per game avg, and then took a Colts team that had been in the basement of the OHL last year, into the second round this year. Now he's contributing for the Ice Caps as they try to get to the Calder finals their first year in the league. (though they got smoked in the Conference finals opener last night, 6-1) I have no idea what the Jets saw in him (thanks to advice from Hawerchuk) that other scouts and the pundits missed, and it certainly wasn't based exclusively on stats, but early on it seems so far like they nailed this one.
    Posted by red75


    The Atlanta Thrashers...oops...Winnepeg Thrashers...oops...Playoff Jets...oops...wait...Phoenix Coyo...dang...

    Winnepeg Jets forum is elsewhere.
     
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