Every time there's thread about guys being overpaid, I wonder if anyone has ever tried to find a way to assess a player's absolute value - what he should be paid based on his talent, effort, impact on games etc.  Anyone ever seen this?  I'd love to see someone try...because it would be a freaking gong show. Player salaries are driven by the market for their services.  Period.  The reason guys get paid more than we think they should is that there aren't enough competent, proven players to go around.  It's a sellers' market unless you're a goalie. The exception is if the Rangers are involved in any way.  Then salaries are market x2 + $3M.
Posted by Bookboy007

Trying to adapt the Oakland A's evaluation of player value strategy for hockey ? Bring sabermetrics into the game ? Posted by red75

In Response to Re: Absolute Player Value and Salaries. : Oh man Book just loves talking Billy Beane metrics applied to hockey...
Posted by SanDogBrewin

In Response to Re: Absolute Player Value and Salaries. : Well in that case let's give him an aneurysm... Core Age (team) The sum of each skater's GVT multiplied by age on a team, divided by the team GVT. It is a better measure of the average age of a team, weighting the best players the most. Corsi A statistic originally invented by Jim Corsi, who was the goaltender coach for the Buffalo Sabres. Corsi is essentially a plus-minus statistic that measures shot attempts. A player receives a plus for any shot attempt (on net, missed, or blocked) that his team directs at the opponent's net, and a minus for any shot attempt against his own net. A proxy for possession. Corsi QoC A measure of competition quality using Corsi as its basis. While a slight improvement on goal-based measures, the scale can be incredibly hard to decipher based on the quality of teams faced throughout the year. Corsi Rel QoC A measure of competition quality using relative Corsi as its basis. It is less luck-driven than QualComp and more universal than Corsi QoC because it's based on a relative metric. The most statistically sound quality of competition metric currently used. DGVT Defensive Goals Versus Threshold. This stat measures a player's worth, in goals, at shot suppression. ESP/60 Even strength points per 60 minutes. A commonly used statistic measuring the amount of points a player scores per 60 minutes of even strength ice time. For the 2010-11 season, anything over 1.62 ESP/60 was considered to be scoring at the rate of a top-six forward, though 1.8 ESP/60 is the common benchmark. ESSV% Even strength save percentage. Many analysts prefer to measure goaltenders using only their even strength shot-stopping since there is less year-to-year variation and less luck involved. ESTOI Even strength time on ice is a measure of the ice time a player averages per game in even strength situations. Fenwick Another possession metric, originally devised by Matt Fenwick of the Battle of Alberta blog. Fenwick follows the same concept as Corsi, but doesn't include blocked shots. Fenwick is considered to have better predictive value for future goal differential than Corsi. The removal of blocked shots is also valuable since blocked shots are a proven skill worthy of being separated. GVT (Individual) Goals Versus Threshold. Developed by Tom Awad of Hockey Prospectus, GVT measures a player's worth in comparison to a typical fringe NHL player. GVT has two major advantages over most metrics: it's measured in goals, which are easily equated to wins, and it is capable of comparing players across multiple positions and multiple eras. GVT is the summation of OGVT, GGVT, DGVT, and SGVT. GVT (Team) Goals Versus Threshold for a team is equal to the team's goal differential. By definition Team GVT = sum of Player GVT - Replacement Level (which GVT defines as 1.5 goals per game or 123 goals per season). Net Penalties/60 The difference between the penalties a players draws and the penalties a player takes. This difference is recorded as a rate per 60 minutes of ice time. Net Penalties per 60 gives insight into which players are giving their teams extra power play opportunities. Net Penalties/ 60 tends to be higher for forwards and lower for defensemen, given their roles on the ice. OGVT Offensive Goals Versus Threshold is the portion of GVT measuring a player's ability to generate goals. OGVT measures a player's contribution to goal creation. PDO Created by Vic Ferrari, PDO is the sum of a player's on-ice save percentage and on-ice shooting percentage. PDO is an excellent way to measure "puck luck" or good fortune as it regresses heavily to the mean of 100 (sometimes shown as 1000). For example, a player with a PDO of 103.4 is likely to see his luck drop next year, affecting his plus-minus or point totals. A player with a PDO of 97.1 will likely have a "bounceback" year purely by getting a few more bounces go his way. PPP/60 A rate stat that measures the number of points a player records per 60 minutes of power play time. Even strength and power play rates are split out to give better insight into which situations a player excels at. Much more liable to fluctuate than ESP/60 based on much less playing time involved, so it's better to observe a player's PPP/60 over several seasons. QualComp A measure of competition quality using relative plus-minus as it's basis. A number higher than 0 indicates a higher than average level of competition. One drawback to QualComp is that it is goal-based, incorporating more puck luck than Corsi-based methods. QS A Quality Start is a measure of whether a goaltender "gave his team a chance to win". In order to record a quality start, the goalie must have a save percentage over .912 or a save percentage between .885 and .912 while allowing less than three goals. The reason Quality Starts are so important is that teams win 77.5% of the games in which their goalie records a Quality Start. QS% Quality Start Percentage shows the ratio of a goaltender's games in which they recorded a quality start. A quality start rate of 60% is considered elite, while anything below 40% is quite poor. Regression to the mean A statistical term that refers to the phenomena of statistical measures returning to their average value over time. For example, if Player A's career shooting percentage is 8.5% and he shot 11.3% last season, he will likely regress closer to 8.5% the following year. Relative Corsi A player's Corsi value in comparison to his teammates. Relative Corsi is expressed as the player's Corsi minus the team Corsi rate. A positive value indicates a player who is better than the team average and a negative number is a player who is worse than the team average. Replacement level The level of performance of an easily obtainable player, such as an AHL call-up. Replacement level is considered the minimum performance that teams can achieve, therefore many statistics (such as GVT) express the value of players as value over replacement level. SGVT Shootout Goals Versus Threshold is a measure of a skater's or goaltender's value in the shootout. It is based on the player's ability to score or prevent goals in the shootout versus a league average player in the same situation. Sheltered minutes A term referring to the type of ice time a player is given by the coach. Players given "sheltered minutes" are generally matched up against easy competition and/or given a very high zone start ratio. Translations Converting a player's scoring data from other leagues to an NHL equivalent, using scoring changes of those who made the move previously as a basis. For example, an AHL translation would be what a player would score in the NHL, based on what happened to previous AHL players with similar statistics when they went to the NHL. UFO% An advanced faceoff metric, Ultimate Faceoff Percentage is calculated from even strength, non-empty net situation, road faceoffs only, and adjusted for strength of competition. WOWY With or Without You is a style of analysis used to determine which players benefit the most from their linemates and which players are driving play. Zone Start% A ratio showing the percentage of a player's non- neutral-zone shifts that were started in the offensive zone. Zone starts use faceoffs as a proxy for all shifts. Players with a ZS% higher than 54% could be considered sheltered or deployed offensively while players with ZS% south of 46% can be considered to be deployed defensively or doing the "heavy lifting". All terms from Hockey Prospectus
Posted by red75

Watch lots of games.  Still like player....  Then go get player. There have been too many players over the years who have looked like world-beaters where I've thought, man, put that guy in the top six, play him with some better players, and he'll light it up!  Then you realize you watched the one game that week where he played hard and the one game that month where he had any success.  Call it the Petr Kalus rule (to name one among a million).
Posted by Bookboy007

In Response to Re: Absolute Player Value and Salaries. : Is that the kid who scored on his first 3 shots in the NHL ? I remember Boston had a few kids whose names started with a "K" and that one of them scored everytime he got the puck to the net in his first 3 games.Posted by dezaruchi

In Response to Re: Absolute Player Value and Salaries. : Is that the kid who scored on his first 3 shots in the NHL? I remember Boston had a few kids whose names started with a "K" and that one of them scored everytime he got the puck to the net in his first 3 games.
Posted by dezaruchi