Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

    Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    I’ve known this statistics professor for quite some time, he has this relative value formula that is in use by some MLB agents and teams to evaluate pitchers.  I’ve talked to him about evaluating prospects and he’s agreed to make a version of his formula for evaluating hockey prospects.  It’s going to be a ton of data entry work because we’re going to have to enter a TON of data because you have to compare how the prospects did against each other, plus you need historical data because you can make comparisons for a player who played against guys who are currently in the NHL.  In time and with enough data we will be able to provide some interesting stats on how Gordie Howe might do in the NHL of today.

    His contacts in major league baseball know some of the people and agents in the NHL so we hope to pitch to the NHL through them.

    I don’t know what will come of this, but I will have fun doing it.  I’m going to pick up some programming skills along the way.  Of course I have no idea which NHL teams might be interested (if any), of course I hope the Bruins will be one of them.  My goal would be to get to meet with one NHL team, just because I think it should be fun.  The stats professor says my goal is too low, and that there was great interest from major league baseball and he met with almost every team.  He said they are always interested in a product demo, but getting them to buy is the tough part.

     

     

    I’m thinking that when the website for the prospect evaluator goes up, I’ll create a temporary id and password to it for anyone of you guys who are interested and you can check it out for a limited time.  Don’t worry, I won’t try to get in a sales pitch.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from bostonfan191646. Show bostonfan191646's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    wow. that's fantastic. great stuff. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaveyN. Show DaveyN's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    That sounds really interesting! Hope it works out!

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from kelvana33. Show kelvana33's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    Have it on my desk by Monday.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    In response to kelvana33's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Have it on my desk by Monday.

    [/QUOTE]


    It's going to take a lot longer than that!  

    I'm thinking end of March or beginning of April somewhere in that time frame.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from SanDogBrewin. Show SanDogBrewin's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/

     

    Good place to start getting your data. The sight lags a bit behind when it comes to "quickly updated" data like hockeydb does but still a good place to begin for player info.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Not-A-Shot. Show Not-A-Shot's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    You can't evaluate a player on stats alone.  What this professor and the Corsites don't understand is that hockey is a team game.  Obvious stats are clear (50 goals?  Good player!) and available. 

    The rest of the in depth stat evaluation is just plain wrong.

    Just ask any Corsite about Ovechkin.  (Anyone seen Olsonic since the Ovechkin rebirth?)

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Don-Bruino. Show Don-Bruino's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    BadHab, I have a name for your project:  MONEYPUCK.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from stevegm. Show stevegm's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    Been working with stats for many years.  I'd like to know more.  Nas makes a reasonable point about the relative unimportance of some data, but there is a whole frontier of information out there, that could bring up that success margin.  Me thinks it may well lie outside the traditional "skill" evaluator/prognosticator method.  Life skills, attitude and values are really what seperates the big dogs from everybody else.  Teams currently understand that, but only in extreme instances is it given much thought. 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Chowdahkid-. Show Chowdahkid-'s posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    Sounds like a good hobby to have. Stats are interesting to look at.

    As far as evaluating hockey prospects ?

    I was at a junior game last night......... Ice Dogs-Steelheads. There were  prospects for the upcoming draft to go along with players already drafted there.

    You look at the boxscore and stats..................... and tell me what you think regarding them .

    http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/schedule/show/game/66788

    Obviously you can't.

    Your stats will show what their indiviisual, statistical performances are. Watching game-by-game action will tell a person what they are playing like under a team concept. 

    Good luck ! Maybe if things go right for you.............. Stanley will be your boss.

                   
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Not-A-Shot. Show Not-A-Shot's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    In baseball, you can see that a guy cannot hit left handers.  You can see that he gets a lot more hits in night games than day games.  You can see that he is a good fielder on turf but better on grass.  All of these are individual actions.

    In hockey, a guy with a ton of goals can be labeled a goal scorer.  A guy with a ton of checks can be labeled a hitter.  A guy with a ton of fights can be labeled a fighter.

    Almost everything else is relative to who else is on the ice, and that is always changing.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    Obviously the formula will have weaknesses, but it is meant to be one tool in the evaluation process.

    And all tools have limitations.

    Even watching a player has limitations, the guy could have the night of his life when you see him or he could be fighting the flu.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Not-A-Shot. Show Not-A-Shot's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    In response to BadHabitude's comment:

    Obviously the formula will have weaknesses, but it is meant to be one tool in the evaluation process.

    And all tools have limitations.

    Even watching a player has limitations, the guy could have the night of his life when you see him or he could be fighting the flu.




    That's why you would watch many games. 

    It could be one tool in the process.  Why not ask Chowda, commie, null and Marco for help?  Then you'd have many tools in the process.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Chowdahkid-. Show Chowdahkid-'s posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    In response to Not-A-Shot's comment:



    That's why you would watch many games. 

     

    It could be one tool in the process.  Why not ask Chowda, commie, null and Marco for help?  Then you'd have many tools in the process.

    [/QUOTE]

    Burn baby burn........

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Chowdahkid-. Show Chowdahkid-'s posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    In response to BadHabitude's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Obviously the formula will have weaknesses, but it is meant to be one tool in the evaluation process.

    And all tools have limitations.

    Even watching a player has limitations, the guy could have the night of his life when you see him or he could be fighting the flu.

    [/QUOTE]

    Sounds like a sales pitch. Hopefully Stanley is listening.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from islamorada. Show islamorada's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    Hockey stats are useful to a point.  I tend to agree with NAS, it is a team game.  Statistical outlays cannot accurately project team play.  I do think when you are playing armchair GM or doing Fantasy hockey, the stats have some merit.  I also believe GMs do use metrics to evaluate players during the season.  I believe if you are a GM (management) you use stats to think and ponder a player's develeopment and value.  The team aspect of the player is to feel he can be a significant player on the the team.  In other words if you feel a player is valuable then you have already have thought significatntly on that player with statistica outlays in mind.  

    I enjoy reading this site for infomation....

    http://hockeyanalysis.com/

    Good luck with the project.  

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from DrCC. Show DrCC's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    As far as statistical analysis goes, compared to baseball hockey is a mess.  That's a given.

    I will be interested to see if anything comes of this.  If nothing else, perhaps you will be able to evaluate a player in certain situations?  As in, when playing a checking role on a team has he had success; when playing the point on the powerplay has his team done well.  Things you can get from watching lots of video, but perhaps faster from parsing numbers.  It might not be useful for the higher-end players (who teams will want to watch anyway), but could up the success rate of picking good role players lower in the draft.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Davinator. Show Davinator's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    Interesting idea BHab and the caveats have been mentioned earlier regarding Baseball(measuring individual accomplishments) vs Hockey(measuring team accomplishments moreso).

    We know a lot of a player's stats are a direct result of their team mate's (especially linemate's) skillset and abilites.

    If there was a rating system for each player on the team (in various categories - scoring, passing, puck possession, playmaking, defense), then this could be considered when each player is rated based on who he was on the ice with at the time.

    For example, an 'A' Type of player scoring 30 goals might get a higher rating if playing with two 'C' Types opposed to another 30 goal 'A' Type player that plays consistently with other 'A' or 'B' Types of players...

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

     

    The prof got about 20 student volunteers for data entry so the project has been accelerated.  Pretty neat formula because it all depends on relative values, if you have a stronger or weaker team or team mates, TOI and etc.

    Looks to be about 2.5 or 3 weeks out.  Can't wait to give you guys a trial look.  Can't wait to meet some NHL people which would be fun if that ever happens.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Don-Bruino. Show Don-Bruino's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    Go, MONEYPUCK, Go!

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from red75. Show red75's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    In response to marco0863's comment:

     


    You used word " fantadtical" yesterday in your post where did you get that from?  Just Curious



    He got it from the fact that the "d" is right next to the "s" on the keyboard. You of all the people on this board marco shouldn't be making a big deal about other people's typos.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from DrCC. Show DrCC's posts

    Re: Badhab prospect evaluator goes to the next level!

    What?  Where?  When?  Did I slip off my meds again?

    No, really... I don't remember using that word any time recently.  That doesn't generally mean much, as my memory tends to be shot by the end of the week, but I can't find it in my posting history either.  I'm confused.

     
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