Capitals and Ovie

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Not-A-Shot. Show Not-A-Shot's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    In response to Olsonic's comment:

    This question is incoherent. I have no idea what you're talking about. Are you confused why ovechkin would have a bad 5v5 corsi rating during years he appeared to be playing 5v5 poorly, and why his 5v5 corsi rating rebounded when he appeared to be playing better 5v5? Do you not understand that the point of statistics is to quantify what happens on the ice? Either you really have no idea what the point of statistics are (are are completely at sea trying to interpret them) or you're just disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing (I suspect it's the latter)

    but now that you bring up corsi, you've inspired me to take a closer look @ ovechkin's stats this season.

    Couple points:

    • Good reason to be suspicious about the Capitals, they aren't even close to where they were back in their hay-day when they crushed 5v5 play, they are giving up far to many shots directed on net per game at even strength. sure, they are still in the net positive, but it's just barely positive. Montreal, Pitt, Boston are the class of the east 5v5, Washington isn't close. I think this is particularly worysome because ovie is the league leader in shots, so his linemates and defenders are not able to cover the d-zone like they used to.
    • Ovechkin is where he is because of the power-play this season, he's almost equalled his production last season (78 games). Good for him. 

     



    The Corsites (like yourself) have been professing the Death of Ovechkin's Skills based upon his advanced stats.

    He's ripping it up this year.

    Corsi stats do nothing more than tell what happened and can clearly not offer any help in predicting what will happen.

    According to the Corsites, Ovechkin is toast.

    According to real life, he's not.

    I will hang my hat on Alex Ovechkin's stat turn around to proclaim all Corsi stats worthless.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    In response to Not-A-Shot's comment:

     

     

    According to the Corsites, Ovechkin is toast.



    Toast or relative toast? (Relative to expectations and contract) 

    Saying he was toast was stupid.

    Saying he was relative toast was not stupid.  Wrong, but not stupid.

    Before breaking out of his multi-year funk, I did believe that the risk was not worth it.  I did not target him as a contract that I wanted.  While I believed that he would probably return to playing at an elite level, there was a chance that he wouldnt....And at 9M+/yr, I just thought there were better player/contract combos to fantasize about acquiring.  

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Olsonic. Show Olsonic's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    In response to Not-A-Shot's comment:

    In response to Olsonic's comment:

     

    This question is incoherent. I have no idea what you're talking about. Are you confused why ovechkin would have a bad 5v5 corsi rating during years he appeared to be playing 5v5 poorly, and why his 5v5 corsi rating rebounded when he appeared to be playing better 5v5? Do you not understand that the point of statistics is to quantify what happens on the ice? Either you really have no idea what the point of statistics are (are are completely at sea trying to interpret them) or you're just disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing (I suspect it's the latter)

    but now that you bring up corsi, you've inspired me to take a closer look @ ovechkin's stats this season.

    Couple points:

    • Good reason to be suspicious about the Capitals, they aren't even close to where they were back in their hay-day when they crushed 5v5 play, they are giving up far to many shots directed on net per game at even strength. sure, they are still in the net positive, but it's just barely positive. Montreal, Pitt, Boston are the class of the east 5v5, Washington isn't close. I think this is particularly worysome because ovie is the league leader in shots, so his linemates and defenders are not able to cover the d-zone like they used to.
    • Ovechkin is where he is because of the power-play this season, he's almost equalled his production last season (78 games). Good for him. 

     

     



    The Corsites (like yourself) have been professing the Death of Ovechkin's Skills based upon his advanced stats.

     

    He's ripping it up this year.

    Corsi stats do nothing more than tell what happened and can clearly not offer any help in predicting what will happen.

    According to the Corsites, Ovechkin is toast.

    According to real life, he's not.

    I will hang my hat on Alex Ovechkin's stat turn around to proclaim all Corsi stats worthless.




    you don't know how to interpret stats. then again i'd rather choke myself than talk to you about this any more.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Not-A-Shot. Show Not-A-Shot's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    In response to Olsonic's comment:

    you don't know how to interpret stats. then again i'd rather choke myself than talk to you about this any more.



    Of course.  If I had beat the funeral drum of a player based on some new age niche stats and the following season he's tied for the NHL goal lead, I'd avoid talking about it also.

    http://www.boston.com/community/forums/sports/bruins/on-the-front-burner/would-caps-trade-ovie/100/6540717?page=2

    In response to Olsonic's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to Not-A-Shot's comment:

     

    In response to Olsonic's comment:

     

    So yeah, it's super noticeable how Ovie has declined by looking at the corsi numbers.

     



    Isn't it just as noticeable when looking at his goals and assists?

     

     



    Yeah, points can help tell the story, but I think shot differential is more useful indicator of how the game goes when you are on the ice. And yeah, anyone who watches Ovie play now can tell something is wrong, but corsi helps to quantify your subjective interpretation. And since its something that aggregates over every single game of the year(like all statistics), it allows you to check whether your interpretation holds true for a long period of time, so Chowdahkid doesn't have to watch every single game that Ovie plays just to come to the same conclusion (don't you have OHL, QMJHL, AHL and Pewee games to watch?). It's called having evidence to support your beliefs so you don't make a mistake, it's a recognition that you're prone to make an error if you leave your opinions to a small sample size.

     

    It's no surprise that corsi falling off dramatically mirrors what chowdah claims you might think from watching him play.. THATS THE POINT. That's why it's a valuable statistic. And because shots happen more often than points, you can make a more accurate prediction about future behavior. Thats why I'm saying Ovechkin is truly cooked in Washington. It isn't that he's snake bitten or is missing the net, the guys is simply not effective at all any more.

    [/QUOTE]

    LOL @ the Corsites.

    What a junk set of stats.  People think they can be used to predict the future.  They can't.  For those of you who don't know OC, he's a very smart man and knows a boatload about hockey.  He's been around for years and is a very valuable contributor here.  Even with that, however, he's been sucked in and turned into a Corsite.

    Don't believe the hype, kids. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from shuperman. Show shuperman's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    Anyone think we can get ovie as a salary dump?  That line is lethal.  brouwer lighting it up as well. They are still minus laich and ward.  

    Anyone look at their back end.  Hillen, olesky big john.  cheap contract guys who are playing solid minutes for them.  Green alzner carlson are their big 3.  Only big john isnt very mobile.  The rest can move.  

    I hope ovi continues to play well.  Im glad hes back.  The league is much more fun to watch with him tearing it up.  

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from hangnail. Show hangnail's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    Not to change the focus away from Ovie shupe but Oates deserves a ton of credit too.  The team looks like it's having fun again - kudos to the coach for letting them play to their strengths. 

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from shuperman. Show shuperman's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    In response to hangnail's comment:

    Not to change the focus away from Ovie shupe but Oates deserves a ton of credit too.  The team looks like it's having fun again - kudos to the coach for letting them play to their strengths. 

     



    I agree 100 percent.  Ovi finally has someone who gets it.  Brouwer as well is having a great year.  

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Not-A-Shot. Show Not-A-Shot's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    It should be really easy to acquire Ovechkin.  His corsi ratings clearly show his career is over.

     
  9. This post has been removed.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from SanDogBrewin. Show SanDogBrewin's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    May 12 '12   WSH @ NYR   0     0     0     -1  20:54    
       

    May 04 '11   WSH @ TBL    0     1     1     1   25:05    


    Apr 28 '10   MTL @ WSH     0     1     1     0   23:35    

     

    PC should trade everything he has for the Great 8, take on that overblown salary. Nothing trending in those decisive season ending final game stats of a playoff series. Ovie and his Caps are awesome.

    GMs should never pay attention to those stats absolutely meaning less.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Not-A-Shot. Show Not-A-Shot's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    April 6, 2008:  0-0-0 -1

    May 27, 2009:  0-0-0 even

    June 9, 2010:  0-1-1 -1

    April 26, 2011:  1-0-1 even

    April 23, 2012:  0-0-0 -1

    The final game of the season tells everything you need to know about a player.  Here, you can see that in five final season games, this player has a paltry two points and is a -3.

    Jonathan Toews sucks.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from 4everbruins. Show 4everbruins's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    All I know is that this is looking like a very dangerous team to meet in the playoffs. They've found there game.....in spades!

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from SanDogBrewin. Show SanDogBrewin's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    May 12 '12   WSH @ NYR     0     0     0     -1     20:54    
    May 09 '12   NYR @ WSH         1     0     1     0     15:14    
    May 07 '12   WSH @ NYR     0     1     1     1     19:08    
    May 05 '12   NYR @ WSH         1     0     1     -1     15:09    
    May 02 '12   NYR @ WSH     0     0     0     0     35:14    

    May 04 '11   WSH @ TBL     0     1     1     1     25:05    
    May 03 '11   WSH @ TBL        1     1     2     0     24:27   
    May 01 '11   TBL @ WSH     1     0     1     0     23:04    
    Apr 29 '11   TBL @ WSH     0     0     0     -1     22:38

    Apr 28 '10   MTL @ WSH     0     1     1     0     23:35    
    Apr 26 '10   WSH @ MTL     0     0     0     -1     25:34    
    Apr 23 '10   MTL @ WSH        1     0     1     -1     24:47    
    Apr 21 '10   WSH @ MTL        2     1     3     3     21:10    
    Apr 19 '10   WSH @ MTL     1     0     1     1     19:51   
    Apr 17 '10   MTL @ WSH         1     3     4     3     20:22    
    Apr 15 '10   MTL @ WSH     0     0     0     0     26:26    

     

    Impressive with all of those minutes worth every penny. More meaningless games, give Washington everything.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from SanDogBrewin. Show SanDogBrewin's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    Toews makes $6.5M a year much more tolerable if he doesn't help his team in crunch time. Ovechkin makes $9M right now and it goes up to $10M starting in 2015 and it continues until 2021. A player getting paid like that can't go through playoff games with one assist.

    Let me go back n say if I were the GM the new team in Quebec or Hamilton, sure I would approach the owner of the franchise about trading for Ovechkin. Toews contract ? all day and twice on Sunday.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Olsonic. Show Olsonic's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    In response to shuperman's comment:

    Anyone think we can get ovie as a salary dump?  That line is lethal.  brouwer lighting it up as well. They are still minus laich and ward.  

    Anyone look at their back end.  Hillen, olesky big john.  cheap contract guys who are playing solid minutes for them.  Green alzner carlson are their big 3.  Only big john isnt very mobile.  The rest can move.  

    I hope ovi continues to play well.  Im glad hes back.  The league is much more fun to watch with him tearing it up.  



    I have to agree with you that the league is much more fun with him playing well. It will be interesting to see if they have enough secondary scoring, and can score on 5v5 in the playoffs when there are fewer power-play opportunities; however, I wouldn't want to play them at this moment.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Not-A-Shot. Show Not-A-Shot's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    In response to SanDogBrewin's comment:

    May 12 '12   WSH @ NYR     0     0     0     -1     20:54    
    May 09 '12   NYR @ WSH         1     0     1     0     15:14    
    May 07 '12   WSH @ NYR     0     1     1     1     19:08    
    May 05 '12   NYR @ WSH         1     0     1     -1     15:09    
    May 02 '12   NYR @ WSH     0     0     0     0     35:14    

    May 04 '11   WSH @ TBL     0     1     1     1     25:05    
    May 03 '11   WSH @ TBL        1     1     2     0     24:27   
    May 01 '11   TBL @ WSH     1     0     1     0     23:04    
    Apr 29 '11   TBL @ WSH     0     0     0     -1     22:38

    Apr 28 '10   MTL @ WSH     0     1     1     0     23:35    
    Apr 26 '10   WSH @ MTL     0     0     0     -1     25:34    
    Apr 23 '10   MTL @ WSH        1     0     1     -1     24:47    
    Apr 21 '10   WSH @ MTL        2     1     3     3     21:10    
    Apr 19 '10   WSH @ MTL     1     0     1     1     19:51   
    Apr 17 '10   MTL @ WSH         1     3     4     3     20:22    
    Apr 15 '10   MTL @ WSH     0     0     0     0     26:26    

     

    Impressive with all of those minutes worth every penny. More meaningless games, give Washington everything.



    Ovechkin's previous struggles are well documented.  Currently he isn't struggling at all.  Looks like his career isn't finished...as the Corsites have stated.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from shuperman. Show shuperman's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    san,

    there are plenty big named guys on big contracts who havent won.  Stampkos?  

    i think this is the best ive seen ovie.  im pretty sure lots of teams and gms would want a guy who likely will win another goal scoring title.  Possibly another league mvp.  

    Wonder if you think all cams goals were meaningless.  I mean they cant all be john druce type players.  

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from SanDogBrewin. Show SanDogBrewin's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    "Ovechkin's previous struggles are well documented.  Currently he isn't struggling at all.  Looks like his career isn't finished...as the Corsites have stated."

    I would still have a problem with his playoffs stats for a  $9M a year return. Finished ? probably not but for that kinda of dough he needs to produce better in the post season. Assists mean nothing for what the Great 8 is paid to do.

    And if I were the GM of a small market team in baseball or hockey I would use corsi stats when I can't spend money like the big market teams. I think corsi stats come in handy when you are not allowed to spend foolishly like Theo Epstein. A big market team can afford to throw away $9.5M on a shorstop Billy Beane cannot.

    "Wonder if you think all cams goals were meaningless.  I mean they cant all be john druce type players. "

    Cam Neelys return for his salary was very impressive. I think a player like that would be making $7M a year right now. No chance in hell would every GM in the NHL want Ovechkins salary or could fit it under their cap. Stamkos is 23 years old making $7.5M, his return during the playoffs for his age was right. Big difference in comparison to Ovie's contract. Also Stamkos plays for a lousy team, no support and he still gets 50.

    Salary Vs return when it counts.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from shuperman. Show shuperman's posts

    Re: Capitals and Ovie

    In response to SanDogBrewin's comment:

    "Ovechkin's previous struggles are well documented.  Currently he isn't struggling at all.  Looks like his career isn't finished...as the Corsites have stated."

    I would still have a problem with his playoffs stats for a  $9M a year return. Finished ? probably not but for that kinda of dough he needs to produce better in the post season. Assists mean nothing for what the Great 8 is paid to do.

    And if I were the GM of a small market team in baseball or hockey I would use corsi stats when I can't spend money like the big market teams. I think corsi stats come in handy when you are not allowed to spend foolishly like Theo Epstein. A big market team can afford to throw away $9.5M on a shorstop Billy Beane cannot.

    "Wonder if you think all cams goals were meaningless.  I mean they cant all be john druce type players. "

    Cam Neelys return for his salary was very impressive. I think a player like that would be making $7M a year right now. No chance in hell would every GM in the NHL want Ovechkins salary or could fit it under their cap. Stamkos is 23 years old making $7.5M, his return during the playoffs for his age was right. Big difference in comparison to Ovie's contract. Also Stamkos plays for a lousy team, no support and he still gets 50.

    Salary Vs return when it counts.



    Money isnt a great basis for an argument.  lets not act like ovi is 35.  Hes hitting prime time.  And if you check the early yrs ovi had nothing either.  Yzerman was nearly traded for the same reasons.  Bet they are pretty happy to have kept him.  And stampkos has marty vinny etc etc.  ovi didnt have close to that.  

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share