Re: Corey Perry signed
posted at 3/19/2013 12:20 PM EDT
Honestly, I don't know where I sit on what the Ducks have done. I really don't. Perry is the love child of Lucic and Marchand - not quite the bruiser Lucic is, not quite the pest Marchand is, but a very effective fusion of the two with better hands than either. I like his game when I see him, which isn't often.
When I look at his overall body of work for the Ducks, his last two years stick out like sore thumbs. He's not a 50 goals/100 points a year guy, but he's been there. He's probably better than the 37 goal/60 point guy he was last year. I think your expectation of him is probably 33-37 goals, 70-75 points most years. Is that worth $8.65 mil? I mean, once you're into that stratosphere in terms of salary, don't talk to me about intangibles and real time stats or style of play. I buy that being a reason Lucic gets $6M to be a 60 point player and Seguin gets a quarter mil. less to be a 70+ point guy. But I don't buy it as part of how you get to $8.65M. That's a lot of cake.
This year, his goal numbers are down a bit. with only 4 even strength goals in 23 games (5pp). After his suspension, he'll have fewer than 20 games to get 8 goals and hit the 30 goal plateau for the season (17 pro-rated). His assist numbers are up, though. That makes me wonder - how dependent on Getzlaf is Perry? Not "Rob Brown dependent" - he's a great player in his own right - more how much is the variation in CP's stat line a function of Getzlaf having a good year or a bad year? I guess we're not going to know for the better part of a decade, so maybe it doesn't really matter?
Most teams would salivate for a tandem like that. And the Ducks have to be thinking that guys like Winnik, Cogliano, Holland and Palmieri (and Etem?) are giving them secondary scoring at a basement price. Whether those guys step up next year to fill the role Koivu (crazy numbers this year) and Selanne (crazy numbers last year) have played is yet to be seen. We also don't know if Fasth is this year's Brian Elliott, so they'd be a little nutty to deal Hiller before April. Their D is also patchwork, and if Souray wakes up and remembers he's Sheldon Souray or Beauchemin flashes back to his days in Toronto when he couldn't defend against my grandma, they'll be looking for answers that may not come cheap.
So - say they deal Ryan to make some additional room. They need to re-sign Palmieri. That means they have about $16M to replace three top six scoring forwards. And they just set the market for free agents with the signings of Perry and Getzlaf. Post lockout benchmarks.
Lot of variables here and a lot that they have taken on faith. This could look a lot like Tampa Bay in two years.