Re: David or Carl?
posted at 6/18/2014 10:38 AM EDT
In response to Bookboy007's comment:
What is Soderberg worth? $4? And I think Krejci will most likely accept that there's now a "Bergeron cap" in Boston, and no forward is going to make more than Patrice for the next few years at least. So say the two can be had for $10.5M. That's $4.25M more than they currently make, which is going to make it tricky to manage the Cap next year and for a few years after. If you pencil in Smith at $2.5M (I'd rather estimate high) and say they rebuild the fourth line for $3.5M total (an increase of $600K over what Cap Geek currently lists for Campbell and Paille), that's a total of about $7.35M more than what they have on the books for 10 forwards right now: about $45M for the forward group without carrying a spare. That's with Savard in and no Iginla, but leave that question for now.
On D, I don't think Boychuk and McQuaid are the issue. Neither guy, to my mind, is a risk to go anywhere for big money. For Boychuk, look no farther than Volchenkov and Seidenberg. Especially AV. Freight train, shot blocker, strong as a horse - but at $4M for NJ, not worth the cash because he brings nothing on O and he's starting to break down. Seidenberg is only slightly older than JB, contributes more offensively, and only makes $4M. Boychuk is at $3.37M already, so I don't see his raise being more than $700K because I don't think he'll get to UFA to test the water. McQuaid might not be back because he gets supplanted or dealt before the end of the year, but barring a huge season, how does he make a claim for more than the $1.6 he's making now?
The real salary pressure on D will come from Hamilton and Krug. Hamilton's EL deal expires, and it looks for all the world like he could be looking for Pietrangelo money if he progresses the same amount this year as he did last year. I'm hoping for a bridge deal at $3.5, but I won't be surprised if it's 5 at $5+M. Krug will likely be between $2-3M this year depending on how long a bridge he gets. Add that all up with a bridge for Hamilton rather than the big deal and $2.5M for Krug, it's about $6M more than what CapGeek has for the D group now - with Miller as a spare: $23.5M give or take some change.
That's $68.5M for the roster, plus $8M for the goalie position, for $76.5M. The Cap would have to rise $5.5M for that to happen next year. Of course, they could put an EL guy into the lineup in place of Savard (meaning no high profile RW for Krejci) and save about $3M that way, and a $2.5M increase seems like a more reasonable assumption.
All of this assumes no new money comes on board this year, too - so no bonus overage from an overager like Iginla, and no deal with Marchand that increases the salary for next year. Etc.
I think they play out the string, try to get Soderberg signed as soon as they have some projection of what the Cap will look like, and then deal with the Cap in the off-season. Be good to see what happens with Soderberg playing with Lucic and whoever on the top line for a stretch just to see if he can really be the guy. I have my doubts.
Are you not entertained?!?!
Well thought out Book. Sounds pretty reasonable.