Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall
posted at 3/5/2012 3:01 PM EST
Nothing was implied in my comments. I didn't say say teams didn't tank. I also didn't say this student wouldn't find a job. What I said was that the conclusions being drawn are not fully supported by the data being used, and that I wouldn't hire this student because of their terrible logic. There are all kinds of reasons a team could do worse after being eliminated from contention. Unmotivated players. Giving young players a shot. Extra motivated opponents still competing. Traded away talent at the deadline. Shutting players down for the season due to injury that otherwise they would have played through if the games mattered. Also, using the point before and after elimination is erroneous. Teams like Edmonton have been taking from day one recently the last few years. Also, if all teams are 16% worse after elimination then the tanking doesn't matter because it affects everyone. I love numbers. I'm a big believer in scientific management. But there are some times it doesn't apply. This is one of them. At least they don't apply in the way the student is using them.
But my bigger issue is with the proposed alternative system. This new one would punish teams that are awful and teams that just make the playoffs. It would reward teams that tank the first half of the season and then turn it on. It's a joke. How are the bottom feeders ever supposed to get better if they don't get good picks? You would have a constant cycle of 20 teams winning, then declining down to average, then getting a good pick and getting better again. The bad teams won't get star players and because they are awful no one will want to sign there. It will be hopeless.
I also don't agree with the whole premise that there is something wrong with tanking. There are teams that are good and contending, there are teams that average and battling for the playoffs. Then there are a handful of teams so bad they have nothing to play for. At least their fans have something to be excited about.
In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall
[QUOTE]In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall : I mean, I highly doubt a MIT Mathematics phd speaking at a conference filled with NHL gms is going to have a tough time finding a job. But seriously OC, implied in your statements is that tanking does not occur in professional sports, despite the fact that it's not only logical, but supported by circumstantial statistical evidence. For the people that believe the tanking is widespread, this isn't a hugely flawed proposal. I agree that teams can just be terrible and not be trying to tank--it doesn't mean that all teams are in a race to lose as much as possible, only that when a team is dead last in the NHL, they lose at a much greater rate than the other teams and at a greater rate than they had before they were eliminated. I don't know, it is interesting, it just bothers me when I see teams like the Oilers and the Penguins losing year after year and assembling a super team that can just brush off the loss of the best player in the game (crosby). In my opinion, that makes the competition unbalanced.. The penguins and the oilers will be credited for great management even though they did absolutely nothing to help their teams win games. Some of these teams have an embarassment of riches while other teams are starving for talent. Say what you want about Toronto, but I respect Burke.
Posted by Olsonic[/QUOTE]