Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

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    Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    Fabulous article summarizing the position of a mathematics phd student @ Univeristy of Missouri-Columbia


    "First off, Gold is convinced that such tanking occurs. His research shows that after NHL teams are eliminated from the playoffs, their winning percentage decreases by 16 per cent. "

    Under his proposed system, it would only be when a team gets eliminated from the playoffs that it would start to play for its draft position.






    • what do you guys think? I personally think this is brilliant
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from WalkTheLine. Show WalkTheLine's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    It's good but not perfect. The "playoffs" for lottery position could be greatly effected by the division you are in and your remaining schedule. But it's probably an improvement over the current system which means Bettman et al will never go for something like this.

    I would love to see somthing change though. I absolutely hate the tanking that happens in the NHL. For this reason alone I dislike the Penguins who have blatantly thrown games to get the top 1 or 2 picks multiple times in my lifetime.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Babajingo. Show Babajingo's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    I like that idea.  I hate the tanking.  I've said it before, the Oilers are the new Penguins.  Tank for 4 to 5 years, get the draft picks and build from there.  The Pens would be the Quebec Pens by now, if they didn't get crosby and malkin.  Side note, this shows how great an organization Detroit is.

    The tanking is even more relevant in the NBA, where you only have 5 starters on your team. 

    The idea to reset the season for non-playoff teams is something different.  I wonder if they could give it a try for a season and see what happens.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Olsonic. Show Olsonic's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall:
    [QUOTE]It's good but not perfect. The "playoffs" for lottery position could be greatly effected by the division you are in and your remaining schedule. But it's probably an improvement over the current system which means Bettman et al will never go for something like this. I would love to see somthing change though. I absolutely hate the tanking that happens in the NHL. For this reason alone I dislike the Penguins who have blatantly thrown games to get the top 1 or 2 picks multiple times in my lifetime.
    Posted by WalkTheLine[/QUOTE]

    yeah I agree with you. This is a pretty creative solution that would reward teams that deserve it.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Olsonic. Show Olsonic's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall:
    [QUOTE]The Pens would be the Quebec Pens by now, if they didn't get crosby and malkin. 
    Posted by Babajingo[/QUOTE]


    Probably true. I would love to see the NHL implement this. It would also make the end of the season so much more exciting for teams that don't make the playoffs.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from asmaha. Show asmaha's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    So Boston has the rights to Toronto's #2 pick and grab Seguin. How does that work in this new concept?
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from OatesCam. Show OatesCam's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    The idea is completely flawed, i can't believe it's an MIT Phd student. Teams that were at the bottom of the standings would never get out. They can't compete with playoff near-misses, they're just not good enough. Also, some teams aren't eliminated until the last day of the season. I honestly don't think that many teams tank, at least not as many as should if they were smart. But once you're out you have no motivation. Also, rebuilding teams need opportunity to give young players a shot. The current system is fine. If you want to discourage tanking more, you could up the randomness of it. Give the worst team a 25% chance to pick first... or 10%. But I think the current system is fine. Bad teams need a chance to get a star to build around. Then the skill comes in trying to put together the rest of the team.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from red75. Show red75's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall:
    [QUOTE]The idea is completely flawed, i can't believe it's an MIT Phd student. Teams that were at the bottom of the standings would never get out. They can't compete with playoff near-misses, they're just not good enough. Also, some teams aren't eliminated until the last day of the season. I honestly don't think that many teams tank, at least not as many as should if they were smart. But once you're out you have no motivation. Also, rebuilding teams need opportunity to give young players a shot. The current system is fine. If you want to discourage tanking more, you could up the randomness of it. Give the worst team a 25% chance to pick first... or 10%. But I think the current system is fine. Bad teams need a chance to get a star to build around. Then the skill comes in trying to put together the rest of the team.
    Posted by OatesCam[/QUOTE]


    Agreed, the bad franchises need the help in order to ensure a competitive cycle within the league that gives a fanbase at least some hope that their team will improve. There's nothing the league can do to stop bad management (Islanders for example) but they can at least give those teams an opportunity to get the right puzzle pieces. We can talk about the fantastic drafting of the Red Wings with lower picks over the last decade and a half, but would the team even still be in Detroit if they never drafted Yzerman? People forget how bad it was there in the early 80's,both team wise and economically. The same with Lemieux and then Crosby in Pittsburgh. It almost worked in Quebec, (success came a year too late) and I don't think Jets 1.0 would have lasted as long as they did if it wasn't for Hawerchuk and Selanne.
    This system would keep the bad teams bad, and that's not good for the league
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Babajingo. Show Babajingo's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    It's just a suggestion.  That's all.  The current system doesn't reward the teams that consistently finish in the middle of pack.  If the current standings held out, teams like LAKings would have around the 15th pick.  Meanwhile, Colombus and Edm would have 1 and 2.  They would get the "franchise" guys while LA would get a good player.  Over 3 years, Edm would get a hell of a line together while LA would have a few 3rd/2nd liners.  I'm generalizing, of course.  But it seems with the current set up, there is no reward (short term to win, long term to tank) finish in the middle of the pack.

    Someone mentioned to me one time that a small fix might be to have a rule that the same team cant pick #1 for two years in a row. Or maybe pick top 3, for two years in a row or ...


     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from dezaruchi. Show dezaruchi's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall : Agreed, the bad franchises need the help in order to ensure a competitive cycle within the league that gives a fanbase at least some hope that their team will improve. There's nothing the league can do to stop bad management (Islanders for example) but they can at least give those teams an opportunity to get the right puzzle pieces. We can talk about the fantastic drafting of the Red Wings with lower picks over the last decade and a half, but would the team even still be in Detroit if they never drafted Yzerman? People forget how bad it was there in the early 80's,both team wise and economically. The same with Lemieux and then Crosby in Pittsburgh. It almost worked in Quebec, (success came a year too late) and I don't think Jets 1.0 would have lasted as long as they did if it wasn't for Hawerchuk and Selanne. This system would keep the bad teams bad, and that's not good for the league
    Posted by red75[/QUOTE]
    Red, I agree. Right now, I see parity in the NHL like I've never seen before so it would seem they're doing something right.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from DrCC. Show DrCC's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    Not that I am endorsing his idea, but having each team start accumulating points when eliminated means that the really bad teams would get a head start.  Of course, being the worst might mean they won't win another game.  Teams eliminated on the last few days would be drafting in the 10-15 range, which they would be normally.

    No, the only sensible way would be to adjust the lottery chances, probably by making it partly point-dependant.  This way a team that is worst by only a couple of points won't have more than double the chance at #1 than the second team.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Olsonic. Show Olsonic's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall:
    [QUOTE]Not that I am endorsing his idea, but having each team start accumulating points when eliminated means that the really bad teams would get a head start.  
    Posted by DrCC[/QUOTE]


    Exactly, this is mentioned in the article.

    As far as Toronto supposedly not caring because they gave away their pick to the Bruins, just remember that they have 2nd round picks at stake too. nothing to laugh at.

    As far as the criticism of the MIT students, I wonder if you understand what their argument is. Do you appreciate that they point out the worst teams lose games at a far greater rate after they have been eliminated from the playoffs? This means that these teams aren't just bad, they are intentionally losing games at this point to gain better position in the draft. I don't know how you can honestly say that the current system is an accurate representation of which teams need the most help when the worst teams are not giving their best effort after they are eliminated.


     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from dezaruchi. Show dezaruchi's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall : Exactly, this is mentioned in the article. As far as Toronto supposedly not caring because they gave away their pick to the Bruins, just remember that they have 2nd round picks at stake too. nothing to laugh at. As far as the criticism of the MIT students, I wonder if you understand what their argument is. Do you appreciate that they point out the worst teams lose games at a far greater rate after they have been eliminated from the playoffs? This means that these teams aren't just bad, they are intentionally losing games at this point to gain better position in the draft. I don't know how you can honestly say that the current system is an accurate representation of which teams need the most help when the worst teams are not giving their best effort after they are eliminated.
    Posted by Olsonic[/QUOTE]
    Ols, I'm not sure that "losing intentionally" is what happens. Once a team is eliminated, they're far more likely to bring up guys from the farm for a test run. It's also likely that they may have sold off many of their assets at the deadline so that's also a factor. And on that note, who expected to see T-bay turn it up a notch AFTER going into sell mode?
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Olsonic. Show Olsonic's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall:
    [QUOTE]It's also likely that they may have sold off many of their assets at the deadline so that's also a factor. 
    Posted by dezaruchi[/QUOTE]

    I think thats the best counter-argument I've read. Good points Dez.


     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from red75. Show red75's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall : Exactly, this is mentioned in the article. As far as Toronto supposedly not caring because they gave away their pick to the Bruins, just remember that they have 2nd round picks at stake too. nothing to laugh at. As far as the criticism of the MIT students, I wonder if you understand what their argument is. Do you appreciate that they point out the worst teams lose games at a far greater rate after they have been eliminated from the playoffs? This means that these teams aren't just bad, they are intentionally losing games at this point to gain better position in the draft. I don't know how you can honestly say that the current system is an accurate representation of which teams need the most help when the worst teams are not giving their best effort after they are eliminated.
    Posted by Olsonic[/QUOTE]

    But the system won't help the REALLY bad teams, even with the fact it only kicks in once they're mathematically eliminated. The 92-93 Sharks, for example,only won 11 games the ENTIRE season. Best i can figure, it looks like they only won two games after being mathematically eliminated. They'd have been hooked in this system. (though they still messed it up by trading down and taking Viktor Kozlov instead of Chris Pronger, but that's the bad management part I mentioned)
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from OatesCam. Show OatesCam's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    It's flawed to say that they lose more because they are trying to lose more. There are many reasons why they could be losing more. And if all teams lose more once eliminated, then the end result will stay the same, no one team gaining an advantage for picking first. I completely understand their logic, I also understand that it is completely flawed. But good on them for coming up with topic that will get them noticed in sports sections of newspapers as far away as Edmonton. I just wouldn't hire them when they graduate.

    In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall : Exactly, this is mentioned in the article. As far as Toronto supposedly not caring because they gave away their pick to the Bruins, just remember that they have 2nd round picks at stake too. nothing to laugh at. As far as the criticism of the MIT students, I wonder if you understand what their argument is. Do you appreciate that they point out the worst teams lose games at a far greater rate after they have been eliminated from the playoffs? This means that these teams aren't just bad, they are intentionally losing games at this point to gain better position in the draft. I don't know how you can honestly say that the current system is an accurate representation of which teams need the most help when the worst teams are not giving their best effort after they are eliminated.
    Posted by Olsonic[/QUOTE]
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Olsonic. Show Olsonic's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall:
    [QUOTE]It's flawed to say that they lose more because they are trying to lose more. There are many reasons why they could be losing more. And if all teams lose more once eliminated, then the end result will stay the same, no one team gaining an advantage for picking first. I completely understand their logic, I also understand that it is completely flawed. But good on them for coming up with topic that will get them noticed in sports sections of newspapers as far away as Edmonton. I just wouldn't hire them when they graduate. In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall :
    Posted by OatesCam[/QUOTE]

    I mean, I highly doubt a MIT Mathematics phd speaking at a conference filled with NHL gms is going to have a tough time finding a job. But seriously OC, implied in your statements is that tanking does not occur in professional sports, despite the fact that it's not only logical, but supported by circumstantial statistical evidence.

    For the people that believe the tanking is widespread, this isn't a hugely flawed proposal. I agree that teams can just be terrible and not be trying to tank--it doesn't mean that all teams are in a race to lose as much as possible, only that when a team is dead last in the NHL, they lose at a much greater rate than the other teams and at a greater rate than they had before they were eliminated.

    I don't know, it is interesting, it just bothers me when I see teams like the Oilers and the Penguins losing year after year and assembling a super team that can just brush off the loss of the best player in the game (crosby). In my opinion, that makes the competition unbalanced.. The penguins and the oilers will be credited for great management even though they did absolutely nothing to help their teams win games. 

    Some of these teams have an embarassment of riches while other teams are starving for talent. Say what you want about Toronto, but I respect Burke.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from SanDogBrewin. Show SanDogBrewin's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    Me thinks Steve Tambellini likes where he picks so I don't think he likes MIT students. I don't think Minnesota is tanking but Fletcher sure did make life tough on Backstrom giving up starters on the blueline.

    I would like to see Bettman's comical reaction to GMs of the bottom "original 30" (that was for KPD) emails...

    Bottom of the original 30 GM "ahh I think the team that wants the 1st pick is tanking"

    Bettman "Oh yah how so ?"

    GM "Well their losing allot"

    Bettman "maybe you should do something about making your team bring better..."

    PS. I'll go choke myself now Ols. I can watch the R Lee Emery Pvt. Pile video 
    Tongue Out
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from WalkTheLine. Show WalkTheLine's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    I guess if every eliminatated team is tanking it then there is no advantage to tanking so theirs no problem. However, not every team tanks and some tank harder than others. So the solution to the problem is to make sure that all eliminated teams try to lose as many games as possible. This could be very entertaining when two eliminated teams face each other. Columbus v. Edmonton could feature several players over the age of 50, a one-legged goalie and a few guys playing with street hockey sticks.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from bogie6. Show bogie6's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    The study is interesting, but doesn'y factor in the impact of management and coaching, except as negatives. In addition, there wouldn't be the same incentive to trade for a first round pick. Imo The Oilers are not managed very well, nor are their scouts finding the "experienced" gems like Peverly, nor are they melding talent with experience. If the schedule is any criteria [ Wharton} then MIT eggheads are also suspect.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hockguy0818. Show Hockguy0818's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall : I mean, I highly doubt a MIT Mathematics phd speaking at a conference filled with NHL gms is going to have a tough time finding a job. But seriously OC, implied in your statements is that tanking does not occur in professional sports, despite the fact that it's not only logical, but supported by circumstantial statistical evidence. For the people that believe the tanking is widespread, this isn't a hugely flawed proposal. I agree that teams can just be terrible and not be trying to tank--it doesn't mean that all teams are in a race to lose as much as possible, only that when a team is dead last in the NHL, they lose at a much greater rate than the other teams and at a greater rate than they had before they were eliminated. I don't know, it is interesting, it just bothers me when I see teams like the Oilers and the Penguins losing year after year and assembling a super team that can just brush off the loss of the best player in the game (crosby). In my opinion, that makes the competition unbalanced.. The penguins and the oilers will be credited for great management even though they did absolutely nothing to help their teams win games.  Some of these teams have an embarassment of riches while other teams are starving for talent. Say what you want about Toronto, but I respect Burke.
    Posted by Olsonic[/QUOTE]
    Burke is with you on this. Right before the 2010 draft, he said something to the effect of: "A ton of people look at how good teams like Washington and Pittsburgh are and they say, 'oh, what a great rebuilding job.' Pittsburgh picked a ball out of a drum to get Sidney Crosby. What skill was that? I'll tell you what, NONE. So don't tell me there was any skill there. I know, I came in second. You know what I say everytime I see Sid? I say, (while pinching his fingers) 'this close, Sid. You were this close to being a Duck.' I don't want the future of my team to be in ping pong balls. There's going to be no tanking. I want playoff appearances and stanley cups."
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from OatesCam. Show OatesCam's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    Nothing was implied in my comments. I didn't say say teams didn't tank. I also didn't say this student wouldn't find a job.  What I said was that the conclusions being drawn are not fully supported by the data being used, and that I wouldn't hire this student because of their terrible logic. There are all kinds of reasons a team could do worse after being eliminated from contention. Unmotivated players. Giving young players a shot. Extra motivated opponents still competing. Traded away talent at the deadline. Shutting players down for the season due to injury that otherwise they would have played through if the games mattered. Also, using the point before and after elimination is erroneous. Teams like Edmonton have been taking from day one recently the last few years. Also, if all teams are 16% worse after elimination then the tanking doesn't matter because it affects everyone. I love numbers. I'm a big believer in scientific management. But there are some times it doesn't apply. This is one of them. At least they don't apply in the way the student is using them.

    But my bigger issue is with the proposed alternative system. This new one would punish teams that are awful and teams that just make the playoffs. It would reward teams that tank the first half of the season and then turn it on. It's a joke. How are the bottom feeders ever supposed to get better if they don't get good picks?  You would have a constant cycle of 20 teams winning, then declining down to average, then getting a good pick and getting better again. The bad teams won't get star players and because they are awful no one will want to sign there. It will be hopeless.

    I also don't agree with the whole premise that there is something wrong with tanking.  There are teams that are good and contending, there are teams that average and battling for the playoffs. Then there are a handful of teams so bad they have nothing to play for. At least their fans have something to be excited about.

    In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall : I mean, I highly doubt a MIT Mathematics phd speaking at a conference filled with NHL gms is going to have a tough time finding a job. But seriously OC, implied in your statements is that tanking does not occur in professional sports, despite the fact that it's not only logical, but supported by circumstantial statistical evidence. For the people that believe the tanking is widespread, this isn't a hugely flawed proposal. I agree that teams can just be terrible and not be trying to tank--it doesn't mean that all teams are in a race to lose as much as possible, only that when a team is dead last in the NHL, they lose at a much greater rate than the other teams and at a greater rate than they had before they were eliminated. I don't know, it is interesting, it just bothers me when I see teams like the Oilers and the Penguins losing year after year and assembling a super team that can just brush off the loss of the best player in the game (crosby). In my opinion, that makes the competition unbalanced.. The penguins and the oilers will be credited for great management even though they did absolutely nothing to help their teams win games.  Some of these teams have an embarassment of riches while other teams are starving for talent. Say what you want about Toronto, but I respect Burke.
    Posted by Olsonic[/QUOTE]
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from OatesCam. Show OatesCam's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    There is skill involved. It's called looking at the system and using it in the best way possible. If Bruke wants to be stupid and not take advantage of the draft lottery, that's his choice, but it's also dumb. He should have rebuilt slowly, drafted Seguin and Hamilton and built a team for the long hall. He made a poor decision and tries to mask it in toughness and competitiveness. Really it's just stupidity.

    In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall : Burke is with you on this. Right before the 2010 draft, he said something to the effect of: "A ton of people look at how good teams like Washington and Pittsburgh are and they say, 'oh, what a great rebuilding job.' Pittsburgh picked a ball out of a drum to get Sidney Crosby. What skill was that? I'll tell you what, NONE. So don't tell me there was any skill there. I know, I came in second. You know what I say everytime I see Sid? I say, (while pinching his fingers) 'this close, Sid. You were this close to being a Duck.' I don't want the future of my team to be in ping pong balls. There's going to be no tanking. I want playoff appearances and stanley cups."
    Posted by Hockguy0818[/QUOTE]
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from dezaruchi. Show dezaruchi's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall:
    [QUOTE]There is skill involved. It's called looking at the system and using it in the best way possible. If Bruke wants to be stupid and not take advantage of the draft lottery, that's his choice, but it's also dumb. He should have rebuilt slowly, drafted Seguin and Hamilton and built a team for the long hall. He made a poor decision and tries to mask it in toughness and competitiveness. Really it's just stupidity. In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall :
    Posted by OatesCam[/QUOTE]
    Masks it in truculence.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from OatesCam. Show OatesCam's posts

    Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall

    touche.

    In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Eliminate tanking for the 1st overall : Masks it in truculence.
    Posted by dezaruchi[/QUOTE]
     

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