He's Overpaid!!!

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Not-A-Shot. Show Not-A-Shot's posts

    He's Overpaid!!!

    Almost every contract that comes out these days gets the "overpaid" tag here.


     


    In most cases, a team is trying to pay the least while a player is trying to get the most.  Sometimes, a lot more goes into a deal than just on ice performance.


     


    Let's use fake player Moe Szyslak as an example.


     


    He's a second line center.  He's good, but not great.  The Isotopes want to keep him, but he isn't really sure if he wants to stay there.  The Isotopes are at a disadvantage, because many teams are looking for a second line center.  Now, the Isos have not only to pay Szyslak, they have to offer him more than he'd get playing for Charlestown or St. Peter's.  It's not a problem for the Isos because they have the cap room and the money.


     


    Is Szyslak overpaid?  I don't think so.  He may have taken less to play elsewhere, but the Isos wanted him so they got him.


     


    Now let's throw a different look at that.  Let's say Szyslak is 25 years old.  He's looking for a two year deal so he can frackin' rake as a 27 year old UFA.  Smitherton wants him on the team for much longer.  Szyslak says he'll take $4M per year for two years.  Smitherton doesn't want the two year deal, only to have him walk.  They want a four year deal, maybe five.  Szyslak will take $4M per for two.  Smitherton offers him a five year deal worth $30M.  Instead of getting $4M, Szyslak is now making six.  


     


    The difference is that Szyslak is giving up cashing in as a UFA for three more years.  The surface would tell anyone that Moe isn't a $6M/per player, and the screams of overpaid would begin.  The truth is that it's a great deal for both sides.


     


    When new deals are signed, make sure you take into account that there are probably other factors involved prior to screaming about the overpaid player.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from WalkTheLine. Show WalkTheLine's posts

    Re: He's Overpaid!!!

    Good post, and what you say is quite true. 70% of the league is overpaid according to many.

    Another scenario....Moe is a d-man and the Isos are a bit weak on D. Moe is a RFA, and a good player who projects to only get better. Isos could bridge deal him for about $3m but would much rather sign him for a longer term rather than let him approach UFA status where he could get upwards of say $5.5m or more. So Moe and the Isos agree to a 4 year deal with an AAV of $4.2m. While Moe is overpaid at first he's probably underpaid later. It basically balances out, in fact the team may have saved itself a couple million over the term of the contract.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bookboy007. Show Bookboy007's posts

    Re: He's Overpaid!!!

    Then there's the corollary which is that if a player isn't overpaid, he's underpaid.  For example, jm starts a thread re: the recently signed Szyslak deal; in short order, fans of Jeff Albertson look at what he's getting paid for basically the same role and the same level of performance, but without the looming UFA rights, and say wow, he must be fuming!  When his deal's up, he's really going to stick it to the man!!  Because he deserves the be paid the same as Moe based on performance.

     

     

    Are you not entertained?!?!

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Fletcher1. Show Fletcher1's posts

    Re: He's Overpaid!!!

    I think this logic makes the most sense when it's a guy on your team, who's played well and you are looking at resigning him.  You know he works there, you know he fits with the team and the coach or whatever, and it may be worth it to pay a premium to keep him there rather than hope some guy from Calgary can come in and do the same thing.  I think in that case he's worth a little more to you than everyone else, because you don't have to worry about adjustment periods, chemistry with teammates, etc.  You know what he's worth in your system.

    So, I get Kane and Toews.  I think NY might know the value of Brassard on that team better than outsiders.  I think NJ knows what Andy Greene is worth to them.  That's fine.

    What I am most confused about this year, are some of the FA signings by new teams.  I know it's a broken record, but Brooks Orpik is at the top of the list.  There have been some crazy FA investments in guys that might have a very questionable impact for their new teams and I don't understand some of those gambles at all.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jmwalters. Show jmwalters's posts

    Re: He's Overpaid!!!

    "It's all about the market baby!!!!"

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bruinfaninnewjersey. Show Bruinfaninnewjersey's posts

    Re: He's Overpaid!!!

    Does PC have enough cap space to sign Moe... sounds like a steal.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from NeelyOrrBourque. Show NeelyOrrBourque's posts

    Re: He's Overpaid!!!

    In response to Not-A-Shot's comment:


    Almost every contract that comes out these days gets the "overpaid" tag here.


    In most cases, a team is trying to pay the least while a player is trying to get the most.  Sometimes, a lot more goes into a deal than just on ice performance.


    Let's use fake player Moe Szyslak as an example.


    He's a second line center.  He's good, but not great.  The Isotopes want to keep him, but he isn't really sure if he wants to stay there.  The Isotopes are at a disadvantage, because many teams are looking for a second line center.  Now, the Isos have not only to pay Szyslak, they have to offer him more than he'd get playing for Charlestown or St. Peter's.  It's not a problem for the Isos because they have the cap room and the money.


     Is Szyslak overpaid?  I don't think so.  He may have taken less to play elsewhere, but the Isos wanted him so they got him.


     Now let's throw a different look at that.  Let's say Szyslak is 25 years old.  He's looking for a two year deal so he can frackin' rake as a 27 year old UFA.  Smitherton wants him on the team for much longer.  Szyslak says he'll take $4M per year for two years.  Smitherton doesn't want the two year deal, only to have him walk.  They want a four year deal, maybe five.  Szyslak will take $4M per for two.  Smitherton offers him a five year deal worth $30M.  Instead of getting $4M, Szyslak is now making six.  


     The difference is that Szyslak is giving up cashing in as a UFA for three more years.  The surface would tell anyone that Moe isn't a $6M/per player, and the screams of overpaid would begin.  The truth is that it's a great deal for both sides.


    When new deals are signed, make sure you take into account that there are probably other factors involved prior to screaming about the overpaid player.




    Dion Phaneuff is someone who I think fits this bill to a T! I don't think the Leafs had a choice, but to sign him to that contract. Is he worth that kind of money to say a team like the Kings, or the Bruins? No fawking way, but the Leafs would've lost him to someone who needs that kind of player on d. It's not always about the best talent. It's about the need & the desperation of a team as well & if there's a shortage of players that can fit that need someone is going to look and come across as being highly overpaid to another team, but there's other teams that would've paid that player the same, or even more.   

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jmwalters. Show jmwalters's posts

    Re: He's Overpaid!!!

    Yep. Like him or not the fact remains is that he does play 27mins a night against all the other teams top players and he can chip in with points. Without him, the leafs would have a huge hole on D with no real replacement.....that said, I still think he sucks :)

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Crowls2424. Show Crowls2424's posts

    Re: He's Overpaid!!!

    PC would give him dollars, term and security (NTC).

    Szyslak sucks, trade him for picks.

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Not-A-Shot. Show Not-A-Shot's posts

    Re: He's Overpaid!!!

    In response to Crowls2424's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    PC would give him dollars, term and security (NTC).

    Szyslak sucks, trade him for picks.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    With Caron for Bobby Ryan?

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Fletcher1. Show Fletcher1's posts

    Re: He's Overpaid!!!

    That Szyslak guy is a liar too.


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-TZ8Z5S9rI" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-TZ8Z5S9rI


     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from btrentor. Show btrentor's posts

    Re: He's Overpaid!!!

     

    I could find an endless list of people who would argue that anyone who makes $100,000/week with summer off is overpaid.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bookboy007. Show Bookboy007's posts

    Re: He's Overpaid!!!

    In response to Fletcher1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    So, I get Kane and Toews.  I think NY might know the value of Brassard on that team better than outsiders.  I think NJ knows what Andy Greene is worth to them.  That's fine.

    What I am most confused about this year, are some of the FA signings by new teams.  I know it's a broken record, but Brooks Orpik is at the top of the list.  There have been some crazy FA investments in guys that might have a very questionable impact for their new teams and I don't understand some of those gambles at all.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'd call it Larry Murphy syndrome: the belief that a player is a C player with his current team but will be an A player with your team because of how you plan to use him.  Could also call it the Seidenberg effect, I guess.  There are many permutations to this: He's a 4th D on his current team, but we think he can be a #2 for us.  He's not on the PP now, but he will be with us.  He doesn't play with great players now, but he will with us.  The last one should be familiar from every discussion of potential goalscorers who would suddenly add 10 to their career best year because, you know, Krejci.

    As nite says, too, there's also the "need" play.  Washington's sitting there thinking "with our offensive players, we have a real shot to go deep in the playoffs, but we keep getting tripped up because we don't have a shutdown pairing.  Let's get one and damn the cost!"

     


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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Fletcher1. Show Fletcher1's posts

    Re: He's Overpaid!!!

    In response to Bookboy007's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'd call it Larry Murphy syndrome: the belief that a player is a C player with his current team but will be an A player with your team because of how you plan to use him.  Could also call it the Seidenberg effect, I guess.  There are many permutations to this: He's a 4th D on his current team, but we think he can be a #2 for us.  He's not on the PP now, but he will be with us.  He doesn't play with great players now, but he will with us.  The last one should be familiar from every discussion of potential goalscorers who would suddenly add 10 to their career best year because, you know, Krejci.

    As nite says, too, there's also the "need" play.  Washington's sitting there thinking "with our offensive players, we have a real shot to go deep in the playoffs, but we keep getting tripped up because we don't have a shutdown pairing.  Let's get one and damn the cost!"

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Yeah, I suppose that's the logic, but I'm still not sure it makes any sense, in this case.  Orpik is a pretty well-known commodity.  I mean, he wasn't set back deep in the lineup in Pittsburgh because they had so much depth.  I would say they got full utility out of him.  He is what he is.  A good physical d-man with average foot speed, stick skills, and a very limited offensive game.  Maybe the idea is that if paired with John Carlson(?) he rounds out a good top pairing.  I don't see it, but you can't blame them for trying, I guess.  It seems like a ton of money to me, for a guy who's more like a 3-4 defensmen, and an aging one at that (going to be 34 at start of season).  

    An average salary of $5.5 million for Brooks Orpik, for 5 years, through his late-30's...yeesh

    I love the Seidenberg example here BTW.  I distinctly remember watching that Bruins playoff series against Carolina and thinking 'their D-men are killing us'.  Most notable was Seidenberg (although Pitkanen and Corvo were killing us too).  I remember thinking he looked great and was really surprised he went to Florida after the playoffs.  I was very excited when the B's got him and let him be a top-pairing type.  They saw it in him.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from kelvana33. Show kelvana33's posts

    Re: He's Overpaid!!!

    In response to Fletcher1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Yeah, I suppose that's the logic, but I'm still not sure it makes any sense, in this case.  Orpik is a pretty well-known commodity.  I mean, he wasn't set back deep in the lineup in Pittsburgh because they had so much depth.  I would say they got full utility out of him.  He is what he is.  A good physical d-man with average foot speed, stick skills, and a very limited offensive game.  Maybe the idea is that if paired with John Carlson(?) he rounds out a good top pairing.  I don't see it, but you can't blame them for trying, I guess.  It seems like a ton of money to me, for a guy who's more like a 3-4 defensmen, and an aging one at that (going to be 34 at start of season).  

    An average salary of $5.5 million for Brooks Orpik, for 5 years, through his late-30's...yeesh

    I love the Seidenberg example here BTW.  I distinctly remember watching that Bruins playoff series against Carolina and thinking 'their D-men are killing us'.  Most notable was Seidenberg (although Pitkanen and Corvo were killing us too).  I remember thinking he looked great and was really surprised he went to Florida after the playoffs.  I was very excited when the B's got him and let him be a top-pairing type.  They saw it in him.

    [/QUOTE]

    I remember PC admitting when he traded for Seidenberg that they chose Morris over him the two when both were free-agents.

    As for the overpaid stuff, I think both arguments play a role. Washington felt they needed an Orpik and paid to get one. For them, he may be worth it, or atleast they think so.




     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from OatesCam. Show OatesCam's posts

    Re: He's Overpaid!!!

    David Clarkson is overpaid. 

     
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