Re: More About First Round Goaltenders
posted at 9/3/2012 8:41 PM EDT
In response to Not-A-Shot's comment:
In response to red75s comment:
I don't have the patience or time to go through every team in the league, but lets take the Bruins for example. 35 players suited up for the Bruins last year at some point. Of those 7 were first round picks, or 20 per cent of the year long roster. Limiting it to just skater and not goalies then the percentage was 19.35 per cent.
Hamill, Horton,Paille, Pouliot, Seguin, Rask, and Rolston. 5 were full time players for the whole season when not injured - so for the 23 man roster, that's 21.73per cent. For the last half of the season that goes to 26.08 per cent with the addition of Rolston. This season three of those players won't be returning, with one more first rounder, Hamilton expected to make the team at the start of the season, leaving the team 21.73 per cent for opening day.
If this is percentage consistent, or at least close to average, around the league, then a goalie playing in the NHL is as likely, if not more likely, to have been picked in the first round than any other player. I don't see how they're riskier to pick.
Red, you're given the same weight to the goon as you are to the first line center. Obviously that's incredibly flawed.
Here's something else from that same writer:
"First round talents are essential. Everyone knows that Detroit pulled Datsyuk and Zetterberg from the depths of obscurity, but this is rare. Of the top-30 point producers in the NHL last year, 5 of them were 1 st overall picks, 4 went 2 nd overall, 3 went 3 rdoverall, and another 11 were first round picks. Far more dumbfounding is the following stat: of the top-20 goal scorers in the NHL last year, ONLY ONE (Patrick Sharp) was not drafted in the first round."
So let's change the weighting, and look only at the top two lines and the top two D pairings. Only two players - Horton and Seguin - are first rounders. 20 per cent.