NEHJ: 10-1

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    NEHJ: 10-1

    http://www.hockeyjournal.com/blog/kirks/Bruins_2012-13_preseason_prospect_rankings-_10-1
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    Interesting stuff on Trotman. 

    I think Sandog's been pimping him around here (if not, take the credit anyway you mook), but I haven't given him much thought.  It sure would be great if he turned into something of value.

     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    Yeah, I definitely see Chudinov and Trotman as the surprises (to me) in the top ten.  Hard to get excited about Chudinov after the Alexandrov failures, but Trotman is an interesting one.  I would have thought that Cross would be rated higher.  I wonder if Trotman has any chance of competing with Hamilton, Krug, et al for a little 6th d-man duty.
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1:[QUOTE]Interesting stuff on Trotman.  I think Sandog's been pimping him around here (if not, take the credit anyway you mook), but I haven't given him much thought.  It sure would be great if he turned into something of value. Posted by Not-A-Shot[/QUOTE]

             Reminded me of that seen in Mean Streets "I am mook ?" lol

    So basicly Luedeke is staying with which players he could see slide into the NHL if Chiarelli has to let players walk in the next 4 years due to money. Possibly Trotman could slide into Ference's spot if there is a cap squeeze. Better than Bartkowski yes but that isn't saying much. I have not seen this mobility Kirk is speaking of in the few games i've seen but Trotman is a banger and Providence needs that.

                 "Projection: Third line power winger with offensive upside."

    The description of Ferlin in parentheses above made chuckle but Luedeke did get one thing right about Brian though, he is not physical and that will hurt him in the AHL. Also putting two goalies in the top ten when they haven't even played in an ECHL game is ridiculously bad.
     
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    In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1 :          Reminded me of that seen in Mean Streets "I am mook ?" lol So basicly Luedeke is staying with which players he could see slide into the NHL if Chiarelli has to let players walk in the next 4 years due to money. Possibly Trotman could slide into Ference's spot if there is a cap squeeze. Better than Bartkowski yes but that isn't saying much. I have not seen this mobility Kirk is speaking of in the few games i've seen but Trotman is a banger and Providence needs that.              "Projection: Third line power winger with offensive upside." The description of Ferlin in parentheses above made chuckle but Luedeke did get one thing right about Brian though, he is not physical and that will hurt him in the AHL. Also putting two goalies in the top ten when they haven't even played in an ECHL game is ridiculously bad.
    Posted by SanDogBrewin[/QUOTE]

    If they're better prospects then anyone who is already playing pro, why not ? Is it because they're goalies or because they haven't played professional yet. I don't get it.

    Why should it matter ? 


     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1 : If they're better prospects then anyone who is already playing pro, why not ? Is it because they're goalies or because they haven't played professional yet. I don't get it. Why should it matter ? 
    Posted by Chowdahkid-[/QUOTE]

    Subban looks worthy.  If they even play a period in the ECHL we are in trouble.
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1:[QUOTE]In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1 : If they're better prospects then anyone who is already playing pro, why not ? Is it because they're goalies or because they haven't played professional yet. I don't get it. Why should it matter ? Posted by Chowdahkid-[/QUOTE]

    Goalie is a good example chowda. Hutchinson really turned it on late last year after spending time in the ECHL. I would say a goalie who has won at the minor league AHL level, having faced forwards that have played a bit in the NHL, should be rated higher than goalies that haven't played against that type of competition yet. This doesn't mean i don't appreciate what Kirk does as I have emailed him thanking him for doing his blog and he always anwers my questions quickly. But it doesn't mean won't I don't disagree with him hear n there as well, he and I have had long debates (I know shocker right).

    Until Spooner and Knight score 20+ goals in the AHL they haven't proven anything to me. Luedeke disagrees as he projects these two to surpass any Bruins prospect that has grinded out a full season in the AHL already.

    Showing that you can take the hitting for many games in the AHL for a forward and facing shots from minor league hockey players, who were once OHL, WHL n QMJHL studs, for a goaile (Hutchinson and Khudobin for example) holds weight for me when judging talent. I have no idea if KoKo, Knight or Spooner can do what it takes because I only have a small sampling of watching them against AHL competition.

    Has KoKo, Knight or Spooner earned their way past Sauve, Cunningham and Camper yet in your view ?
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1:[QUOTE]In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1 : Subban looks worthy.  If they even play a period in the ECHL we are in trouble. Posted by shuperman[/QUOTE]

    Hutchinson got sent to the ECHL but came back played well, pushing Khudobin last season when he came back to Providence. I don't know if Hutchinson will ever make it to the NHL but his stint in the ECHL didn't ruin him either.
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    Chowdah, I think SanDog's point is similar to my own - there's a bias one way or the other depending on whether or not a player has been exposed to pro competition.  Gothberg and Subban have played really well as amateurs, but at times, so did Hutchinson.  Brian Finley was great in Barrie etc.  Hutchinson's value declines because he's been exposed to and by better competition.  He's improving because of it, but these exercises usually tilt toward the players who haven't faced that challenge yet.  That's the one thing I like - at least conceptually - on hockey'sfuture.com: the ranking is on potential, and likelihood of reaching that potential.   
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    ...just to illustrate: the only player on that top 10 list who plays against men and not juniors or college kids is Chudinov, and who knows how you weight KHL exposure vs. NHL or AHL.
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1 : Hutchinson got sent to the ECHL but came back played well, pushing Khudobin last season when he came back to Providence. I don't know if Hutchinson will ever make it to the NHL but his stint in the ECHL didn't ruin him either.
    Posted by SanDogBrewin[/QUOTE]

    Most blue chippers dont play in the ECHL.  Sure it can happen.  History dictates it doesnt....but I get what you are saying.
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    Not that any of these guys really know what they are talking about, but it is interesting to note that Hockey's Future has Trotman as the 11th best D-man prospect in the system.  Behind O'Gara, behind Button, etc.

    Either Kirk or HF stand to be way off on this kid.
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1 :        

    "Projection: Third line power winger with offensive upside."

    Posted by SanDogBrewin[/QUOTE]

    What the heck is a third line power winger?  A power forward is a big guy who can bang and score.  A third liner generally isn't going to be known for his scoring.


     
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    In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1:[QUOTE]In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1 : What the heck is a third line power winger ?  Posted by Not-A-Shot[/QUOTE]

    Ahhh....a label to help an electrician find a wing nut ? I don't know...
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1:
    [QUOTE]Excited to see how those top three play with the B's this year. Got to assume Knight and Spooner will see some NHL ice in injury situations or if Caron doesn't step up. Hopefully knowing that those two are behind him will motivate him and improve his offensive production. He's great defensively and rarely makes mistakes which is really impressive given his age. Last year I was content with Caron simply playing hard, physically, and mistake free hockey, but this year the expectations are raised for him and he needs to contribute offensively t ostay in the lineup. Want to see more of that Caron that we saw towards the end of the season when he appeared to break out offensively before he went cold for the playoffs and remainder of the year.  If Caron doesn't improve this year it would be nice to see him demoted to fourth line duty with Spooner or Knight competing at the AHL level for third line ice time (more than likely Spooner). Thornton would go to the press box where he belongs unless he's needed to goon it up with Buffalo, NYR, or Philly. Some interesting names there on D... wonder how they end up panning out a few years down the road.
    Posted by Bisson1[/QUOTE]

    I think if the bruins give caron regular playing time he will show what he has. But if he only gets 25 games then how can you expect him to show you anything. It takes a full season for some of these prospects to get locked into the nhl game. Look at seguins first season...
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1 : What the heck is a third line power winger?  A power forward is a big guy who can bang and score.  A third liner generally isn't going to be known for his scoring.
    Posted by Not-A-Shot[/QUOTE]

    Raffi Torres
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1 : Ahhh....a label to help an electrician find a wing nut ? I don't know...
    Posted by SanDogBrewin[/QUOTE]

    Lol.....thanks for that.

    I also liked the Subban projection of (paraphrasing) quality starter or bust....heh. Maybe somewhere in between as well?
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Chowdahkid-. Show Chowdahkid-'s posts

    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    Sandog and Bookboy:

    Playing in the pros compared to playing junior doesn't mean certain players are more advanced or are better. 

    It means they are .... and get this.......older. A novel idea. Why can't players who haven't reached the age limit to play in the AHL be a better prospect then those who are ? 

    Playing against older competition isn't the recipe for saying one is better or not when it comes to prospects . There are circumstances involved. If a person went by that formula all AHL or pro players would be considered better prospects then those below them which we know is not the case. 
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1 : Goalie is a good example chowda. Hutchinson really turned it on late last year after spending time in the ECHL. I would say a goalie who has won at the minor league AHL level, having faced forwards that have played a bit in the NHL, should be rated higher than goalies that haven't played against that type of competition yet. This doesn't mean i don't appreciate what Kirk does as I have emailed him thanking him for doing his blog and he always anwers my questions quickly. But it doesn't mean won't I don't disagree with him hear n there as well, he and I have had long debates (I know shocker right). Until Spooner and Knight score 20+ goals in the AHL they haven't proven anything to me. Luedeke disagrees as he projects these two to surpass any Bruins prospect that has grinded out a full season in the AHL already. Showing that you can take the hitting for many games in the AHL for a forward and facing shots from minor league hockey players, who were once OHL, WHL n QMJHL studs, for a goaile (Hutchinson and Khudobin for example) holds weight for me when judging talent. I have no idea if KoKo, Knight or Spooner can do what it takes because I only have a small sampling of watching them against AHL competition. Has KoKo, Knight or Spooner earned their way past Sauve, Cunningham and Camper yet in your view ?
    Posted by SanDogBrewin[/QUOTE]

    I can't answer this for same reason of small sampling viewing exposure of the latter.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Chowdahkid-. Show Chowdahkid-'s posts

    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1:
    [QUOTE]Chowdah, I think SanDog's point is similar to my own - there's a bias one way or the other depending on whether or not a player has been exposed to pro competition.  Gothberg and Subban have played really well as amateurs, but at times, so did Hutchinson.  Brian Finley was great in Barrie etc.  Hutchinson's value declines because he's been exposed to and by better competition.  He's improving because of it, but these exercises usually tilt toward the players who haven't faced that challenge yet.  That's the one thing I like - at least conceptually - on hockey'sfuture.com: the ranking is on potential, and likelihood of reaching that potential.   
    Posted by Bookboy007[/QUOTE]

    You've given me an example of a junior ( Finley ) who didn't have the success as a pro as he did in junior.

    There are also examples of good junior goalies who instantly became farm team's #1 goalies with success when they made the jump. 

    Why did this happen ? Because the year before they weren't old enough to play in the AHL. Once they did they were put into that role because they were better then what the system already had . And they hadn't faced a lick of AHL competition to that point in their careers.
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1:
    [QUOTE]Sandog and Bookboy: Playing in the pros compared to playing junior doesn't mean certain players are more advanced or are better.  It means they are .... and get this.......older. A novel idea. Why can't players who haven't reached the age limit to play in the AHL be a better prospect then those who are ?  Playing against older competition isn't the recipe for saying one is better or not when it comes to prospects . There are circumstances involved. If a person went by that formula all AHL or pro players would be considered better prospects then those below them which we know is not the case. 
    Posted by Chowdahkid-[/QUOTE]

    Oh, I agree with you 100%.  My point was that when I read lists like this one, what I see almost without fail is that younger kids who have demonstrated a ton of potential playing against juniors float to the top, and then in subsequent lists, they drop once they play pro and don't immediately dominate.  It's just a case of having more to go on when assessing whether a superbly talented kid will be a superbly effective NHL player.  The younger they are, the more you're projecting.  The more exposure they've had to the pro game, the more you're (this is for Wensink) evaluating - or maybe judging.

    That's just the pattern I see on the lists, so I tend not to worry about the numbers so much.  In the grand scheme, I'm not so sure Camper and Spooner aren't closer than this kind of exercise would suggest.
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1:[QUOTE]Sandog and Bookboy: Playing in the pros compared to playing junior doesn't mean certain players are more advanced or are better.  Playing against older competition isn't the recipe for saying one is better or not when it comes to prospects. Posted by Chowdahkid-[/QUOTE]

    Instances of Lucic and Bergeron jumping past current prospects doesn't happen as much as a Prospect having to earn his way past an older AHL player. I would like to see it more often mind you but typically the Marchand route is the way to go.

    Circumstance is a good point as well. Oh Chowda...You, the OHL, tuna and hot sauce go together so well lol...
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    I think after this season in prov we will all know wat to expect out of spooner and knight. As for koko he will be in the khl and might never come back so i would put him on the back burner. I look at our prov roster this season and see a dominate team. Spooner and knight should post big numbers, then we have the reiging pt leader in bourque. Our d is getting better with guys like cross playing this year. I will be making my way down to catch a game here and there they will be an exciting team.

    IMO i like spooners game at this point bcs he can score and thats wat the bruins need. While knight is more of a typical power forward, but doesnt show the same scoring touch as spooner. however, i dont think we see either play this year in the nhl.

    Too many depth guys signed for a position to open up for one of them to get playing time. However, next season alot of contracts are coming up and the bruins will have a load of young talent to fill in if guys dont take reasonable contracts or dont perform this season. 
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1 : You've given me an example of a junior ( Finley ) who didn't have the success as a pro as he did in junior. There are also examples of good junior goalies who instantly became farm team's #1 goalies with success when they made the jump.  Why did this happen ? Because the year before they weren't old enough to play in the AHL. Once they did they were put into that role because they were better then what the system already had . And they hadn't faced a lick of AHL competition to that point in their careers.
    Posted by Chowdahkid-[/QUOTE]

    Yup, but that's not my point.  My point is that until they play against pros, the guys who write prospect rankings give them more slack than guys who jump straight to very successful AHL gigs or even the NHL.  There's some sense to this.  In many ways, it makes perfect sense that the brightest prospects in most organizations haven't played a pro game yet.  They're the first round picks outside the top 5 or so who go back to junior for one or even two more years.  Those are the guys who, based on the success rate of NHL scouts, are 2-3 times more likely to have NHL careers than guys drafted in the second or third rounds, and infinitely better odds than the guys drafted in the 7th like Trotman or Chudinov. 

    My issue is with applying that logic indiscriminately to guys who are still in junior or the NCAA or a Euro league and who were second and third rounders - or, in Gothberg's case, or Trotman's, 6th and 7th rounders.  What you get in that case is the complete opposite of what you criticized in your other post: a ranking that puts all non-pro players ahead of all guys with pro experience (assuming pro means AHL and below because NHLers have graduated and aren't still prospects).  And it's just as dumb that way as it is if you reverse it.

    As for the Finley example, you know I can give you a hundred examples from all three Major Junior Leagues - it would take me some time, but I could add guys like Justin Pogge (so good the Leafs felt they could part with Rask) or Marek Schwartz in St. Louis (once their top goaltending prospect whose career stall led them to acquire first Mason and then Halak) or Eric Fichaud (reaching back a bit for a Q guy...).  But that's not worth the time because we all know that for every guy who makes it, there are a dozen guys who had similar talents but were missing some key quality that made the difference - opportunity being one of the biggest.
     
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    Re: NEHJ: 10-1

    At least Leudecke has stimulated a good discussion from all the regulars, and his commentaries are more informative than the globe hockey writers. Also the Globe baseball writers do a credible job with minor league updates. Caron plays the game the way Claude desires, which is why he will complement this year's Bruins. Thornton is doing his P.R. job better than ever. Too bad Chiarelli can't file his salary outside the CAP as Thorny keeps the Bruins in the sports talk medium during a very hot summer.
     
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