Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Eric66. Show Eric66's posts

    Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities

    Wanted to know who the Bruins might play in the 2nd round and ended up figuring the whole league.  Thought some might enjoy it, Ill update it every few days or so.


    https://sites.google.com/site/2012nhlplayoffprobabilities/
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from red75. Show red75's posts

    Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities

    Really cool and informative.
    Thanks. Nice to see out probabilities of playing either the Panthers or Sens are so much higher than playing the Flyers.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from lambda13. Show lambda13's posts

    Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities

    I want FLA for a rematch of that one year back in the 90's. I don't remember. LOL. But I have autographs for all the players from the Panthers team that year! Had a bunch of pictures of me taken with different players, and of course I was proudly wearing my Bruins shirt lol
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from red75. Show red75's posts

    Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities

    In Response to Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities:
    [QUOTE]I want FLA for a rematch of that one year back in the 90's. I don't remember. LOL. But I have autographs for all the players from the Panthers team that year! Had a bunch of pictures of me taken with different players, and of course I was proudly wearing my Bruins shirt lol
    Posted by lambda13[/QUOTE]

    Ideally I'd like to see Ottawa next round and Florida in the third (if we get past Washington - not counting my chickens)
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bisson1. Show Bisson1's posts

    Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities

    Florida and Ottawa would be the easiest route, but Philly and New York would be some very fun, very entertaining hockey.

    Florida is just a really boring team. But gotta get past Washington first.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from DrCC. Show DrCC's posts

    Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities

    Interesting that they went with a 50/50 chance for each game being a win.  I guess with 3 games played it gives a decent indication of the likelihood of each team winning the series.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Eric66. Show Eric66's posts

    Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities

    In Response to Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities:
    [QUOTE]Really cool and informative. Thanks. Nice to see out probabilities of playing either the Panthers or Sens are so much higher than playing the Flyers.
    Posted by red75[/QUOTE]

    Thank you.

    I think the reason its so low for the flyers is because the only scenario where we play them is if the Bruins, Flyers, Rangers and Devils all win their series'.

    Also worth noting is that it is impossible for the Bruins to play either the Rangers or Devils in the 2nd round.

    And there is already a 64% chance that St Louis will play LA next round.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bisson1. Show Bisson1's posts

    Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities

    I still think the Devils will beat the Panthers.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Eric66. Show Eric66's posts

    Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities

    In Response to Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities:
    [QUOTE]Interesting that they went with a 50/50 chance for each game being a win.  I guess with 3 games played it gives a decent indication of the likelihood of each team winning the series.
    Posted by DrCC[/QUOTE]

    I used 50/50 because it was easy to do.  Any more complicated and I would not have been able to do this in my spare time.  Also, I don't really have any source data for anything like that, nevermind have any idea how much weight to give it if I did.

    I made the table not so much to figure out the likelihood of winning a series, but the likelyhood of playing each opponent next round (also for the likelihood of having home ice), which has more to do with the way teams are re-set for round 2 in the NHL (it not being a standard bracket). I found out that in round 2, the 1 seed cannot play the 2 or 3 seed, the 6 cant play the 2 or the 8, and the 7 cant play either the 3 or 8.  Also teams like 1&7, and 2&8 automatically play each other if both make the 2nd round, while the 4 and 5 seeds can play anyone, it just depends on which 4 teams make it.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from DrCC. Show DrCC's posts

    Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities

    In Response to Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities : I used 50/50 because it was easy to do.  Any more complicated and I would not have been able to do this in my spare time.  Also, I don't really have any source data for anything like that, nevermind have any idea how much weight to give it if I did. I made the table not so much to figure out the likelyhood of winning a series, but the likelyhood of playing each opponent next round, which has more to do with the way teams are re-set (it not being a standard bracket). I found out that the 1 seed cannot play the 2 or 3 seeds in rd 2, the 6 cant play the 2 or the 8, and the 7 cant play either the 3 or 8.  Also teams like 1&7, and 2&8 automatically play each other if both make the 2nd round, while the 4 and 5 seeds can play anyone, it just depends on which 4 teams make it.
    Posted by Eric66[/QUOTE]
    Silly me didn't read that original post well enough to realize it was your table.

    Good reasoning.  Short of running full-game simulations, I'm not sure you can do much better than 50/50 anyways.  Are you familiar with this site: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html ?  They do something similar during the regular season to estimate playoff chances.  They've got a weighting system, I'm not sure how it works though.  I don't think regular season stats would work well now, and post season stats are so small a sample.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from jmwalters. Show jmwalters's posts

    Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities

    In Response to Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities:
    [QUOTE]I still think the Devils will beat the Panthers.
    Posted by Bisson1[/QUOTE]

    So do I. Another series with bad goaltending by the way. What the hell happened to all the good goalies out there?
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from islamorada. Show islamorada's posts

    Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities

    Very nice thread!  
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Eric66. Show Eric66's posts

    Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities

    In Response to Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Some Future Round Playoff Probabilities : Silly me didn't read that original post well enough to realize it was your table. Good reasoning.  Short of running full-game simulations, I'm not sure you can do much better than 50/50 anyways.  Are you familiar with this site:  http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html  ?  They do something similar during the regular season to estimate playoff chances.  They've got a weighting system, I'm not sure how it works though.  I don't think regular season stats would work well now, and post season stats are so small a sample.
    Posted by DrCC[/QUOTE]

    Its cool, man

    I love that site, I think I found it through a link you posted in a different thread.  Part of the reason why I made the table was because I couldnt find one anywhere else.  Its a shame that guy doesn't do playoffs, his stuff is really good.

    http://www.coolstandings.com/hockey/playoff_standings.asp?i=1

    These guys did a good job the last couple of years too, but for whatever reason arent doing it this year, and I haven't been able to find anyone that does.
     
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