The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

1. You have chosen to ignore posts from MeanE. Show MeanE's posts

The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

Not sure how many have seen this site before.  I had never before today.  I found it interesting that the Bruins are 1 of 5 teams, including the Habs that are listed as 100% chance will make playoffs.  Even more interesting is the teams at the bottom end of the spectrum.  With the trade deadline approaching, we continue to hear that it is tough sledding trying to find a deal because too many teams still have a chance at making the playoffs.  Well according to these guys Phil, Wash, Col, Buff, & FL have less then a 10% chance of making it, will FL having 0 and Buff having a 1.8% chance.  Although some of these "predictions" seem pretty obvious and you don't need to be a mathmatician to figure it out, do you think that GM's use reports like these when they are considering whether or not they are going to make a deal at the deadline.  I will be interested in keeping up with this site during the next couple of weeks to see if there are any parallels with the trades that will be made.

2. You have chosen to ignore posts from dezaruchi. Show dezaruchi's posts

Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

In response to MeanE's comment:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

Not sure how many have seen this site before.  I had never before today.  I found it interesting that the Bruins are 1 of 5 teams, including the Habs that are listed as 100% chance will make playoffs.  Even more interesting is the teams at the bottom end of the spectrum.  With the trade deadline approaching, we continue to hear that it is tough sledding trying to find a deal because too many teams still have a chance at making the playoffs.  Well according to these guys Phil, Wash, Col, Buff, & FL have less then a 10% chance of making it, will FL having 0 and Buff having a 1.8% chance.  Although some of these "predictions" seem pretty obvious and you don't need to be a mathmatician to figure it out, do you think that GM's use reports like these when they are considering whether or not they are going to make a deal at the deadline.  I will be interested in keeping up with this site during the next couple of weeks to see if there are any parallels with the trades that will be made.

Interesting info Mean but I admit that much of the math escapes me. I can't figure out how they can arrive at the 100% probability .

3. You have chosen to ignore posts from red75. Show red75's posts

Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

In response to MeanE's comment:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

Not sure how many have seen this site before.  I had never before today.  I found it interesting that the Bruins are 1 of 5 teams, including the Habs that are listed as 100% chance will make playoffs.  Even more interesting is the teams at the bottom end of the spectrum.  With the trade deadline approaching, we continue to hear that it is tough sledding trying to find a deal because too many teams still have a chance at making the playoffs.  Well according to these guys Phil, Wash, Col, Buff, & FL have less then a 10% chance of making it, will FL having 0 and Buff having a 1.8% chance.  Although some of these "predictions" seem pretty obvious and you don't need to be a mathmatician to figure it out, do you think that GM's use reports like these when they are considering whether or not they are going to make a deal at the deadline.  I will be interested in keeping up with this site during the next couple of weeks to see if there are any parallels with the trades that will be made.

They haven't clinched anything until they actually have. The fact they say its 100 per cent calls their math into question and their scienific method. Even if they said 99.9999999999 (which is likely a mathematically high percentage for something like this at this point), I'd give them some credence, but in math there are no certainties until they're certain.

I'd be dissapointed in any GM who made decisions based n such obviously flawed mathematics.

4. You have chosen to ignore posts from 50belowzero. Show 50belowzero's posts

Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

In response to red75's comment:

In response to MeanE's comment:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

Not sure how many have seen this site before.  I had never before today.  I found it interesting that the Bruins are 1 of 5 teams, including the Habs that are listed as 100% chance will make playoffs.  Even more interesting is the teams at the bottom end of the spectrum.  With the trade deadline approaching, we continue to hear that it is tough sledding trying to find a deal because too many teams still have a chance at making the playoffs.  Well according to these guys Phil, Wash, Col, Buff, & FL have less then a 10% chance of making it, will FL having 0 and Buff having a 1.8% chance.  Although some of these "predictions" seem pretty obvious and you don't need to be a mathmatician to figure it out, do you think that GM's use reports like these when they are considering whether or not they are going to make a deal at the deadline.  I will be interested in keeping up with this site during the next couple of weeks to see if there are any parallels with the trades that will be made.

They haven't clinched anything until they actually have. The fact they say its 100 per cent calls their math into question and their scienific method. Even if they said 99.9999999999 (which is likely a mathematically high percentage for something like this at this point), I'd give them some credence, but in math there are no certainties until they're certain.

I'd be dissapointed in any GM who made decisions based n such obviously flawed mathematics.

Okay Yogi.;p

5. You have chosen to ignore posts from MeanE. Show MeanE's posts

Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

In response to red75's comment:

They haven't clinched anything until they actually have. The fact they say its 100 per cent calls their math into question and their scienific method. Even if they said 99.9999999999 (which is likely a mathematically high percentage for something like this at this point), I'd give them some credence, but in math there are no certainties until they're certain.

I'd be dissapointed in any GM who made decisions based n such obviously flawed mathematics.

Red, that's why I said based on reports like these.  By no means am I calling this site the be all and end all.

6. You have chosen to ignore posts from red75. Show red75's posts

Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

In response to 50belowzero's comment:

In response to red75's comment:

In response to MeanE's comment:

Okay Yogi.;p

Hey Boo Boo, Wanna get a picnic basket?... Wait, wrong Yogi.

7. You have chosen to ignore posts from MeanE. Show MeanE's posts

Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

In response to dezaruchi's comment:

Interesting info Mean but I admit that much of the math escapes me. I can't figure out how they can arrive at the 100% probability .

It escapes me as well Dez.  I wish they had an explanation on the page.

8. You have chosen to ignore posts from red75. Show red75's posts

Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

In response to MeanE's comment:

Red, that's why I said based on reports like these.  By no means am I calling this site the be all and end all.

I would think that a statistical projection would let a GM know which teams are likely trade partners, but even without being a mathematician they could likely get at least a ballpark etimate of that just by looking at the standings.

9. You have chosen to ignore posts from lambda13. Show lambda13's posts

Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

If you hover over the percentage on the page it has a pop-up. 99.975% for Boston. It shows the different records that could be used based on statistical average I think.

10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Eric66. Show Eric66's posts

Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

It escapes me as well Dez.  I wish they had an explanation on the page.

I visit that site often, and I think he does a real good job. There is an explanation of his methods somewhere on the site but I forget where.

However his playoffs%, and cup win % stats are calculated poorly in my opinion, he puts too much weight on goal differential and current record, which pushes his 'percentage stats' to the extremes. His '100% Bruins to make the playoffs' stat is probably rounded up from 99.95 to 100, and in reality is probably closer to 98%.

Also if you look to the right side of the table, there is still a tiny chance that the bruins could finish 15th (indicated by the 0 there, meaning "rounded to 0%, but more than 0%". a true 0% chance is represented by a blank space). You could, therefore, conclude that once the Bruins have a 'blank space' in the 9th to 15th place columns, that they have clinched a playoff spot.... If you trust his methodology....

I dont use this site to truly determine whether the Bruins have clinched a playoff spot, since his method is to simply simulate the season millions of times and display how often each result occured. To truly determine whether a team has clinched, you have to take into account every possible outcome of the remainder of the season, and despite running millions of simulations, it is inevitable that some 'possible outcomes' will not occur in his simulations.

Despite my criticisms, I still think he does a great job, and visit the site from time to time.

11. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

Wow!  Time really flies by!  We're talking about the playoffs already.

It seems like the season just started a couple of months ago, didn't it?

12. You have chosen to ignore posts from MeanE. Show MeanE's posts

Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

In response to red75's comment:

I would think that a statistical projection would let a GM know which teams are likely trade partners, but even without being a mathematician they could likely get at least a ballpark etimate of that just by looking at the standings.

I was thinking more about the GM's who will be deciding if they truly have a realistic shot at making the playoffs, or should they become sellers and try to improve for the future.

13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Eric66. Show Eric66's posts

Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

In response to MeanE's comment:

I was thinking more about the GM's who will be deciding if they truly have a realistic shot at making the playoffs, or should they become sellers and try to improve for the future.

I would think that every GM would have access to accurate statistics that predict playoff likelihood (and other important information), if not his own system/program for calculating them, or a team statistician.

14. You have chosen to ignore posts from NeelyOrrBourque. Show NeelyOrrBourque's posts

Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

In response to Eric66's comment:

In response to MeanE's comment:

I was thinking more about the GM's who will be deciding if they truly have a realistic shot at making the playoffs, or should they become sellers and try to improve for the future.

I would think that every GM would have access to accurate statistics that predict playoff likelihood (and other important information), if not his own system/program for calculating them, or a team statistician.

Any GM who's concentrating on this garbage wouldn't have a job very long imo. His job is to put together the best team possible & to JUST WIN the games that are played. If he's doing this kind of stuff & I was the owner? I'd be like...Why aren't you on the dam phone making calls to make this team better? If we win enough games we don't have to worry about this foolishness & I wouldn't have to pay someone on your staff to be doing it either.

15. You have chosen to ignore posts from MeanE. Show MeanE's posts

Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

In response to Eric66's comment:

In response to MeanE's comment:

I was thinking more about the GM's who will be deciding if they truly have a realistic shot at making the playoffs, or should they become sellers and try to improve for the future.

I would think that every GM would have access to accurate statistics that predict playoff likelihood (and other important information), if not his own system/program for calculating them, or a team statistician.

I agree

16. You have chosen to ignore posts from NeelyOrrBourque. Show NeelyOrrBourque's posts

Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

In response to MeanE's comment:

In response to Eric66's comment:

In response to MeanE's comment:

I was thinking more about the GM's who will be deciding if they truly have a realistic shot at making the playoffs, or should they become sellers and try to improve for the future.

I would think that every GM would have access to accurate statistics that predict playoff likelihood (and other important information), if not his own system/program for calculating them, or a team statistician.

I agree

LOL You would!

17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Eric66. Show Eric66's posts

Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

In response to NeelyOrrBourque's comment:

Any GM who's concentrating on this garbage wouldn't have a job very long imo. His job is to put together the best team possible & to JUST WIN the games that are played. If he's doing this kind of stuff & I was the owner? I'd be like...Why aren't you on the dam phone making calls to make this team better? If we win enough games we don't have to worry about this foolishness & I wouldn't have to pay someone on your staff to be doing it either.

He can't make phone calls because... he's too busy analyzing statistics? That doesn't make much sense.

I never claimed that a GM should, or would, concentrate on this, but that one likely has the information available to be taken into account with everything else.

I take it you think Billy Beane is just a lucky hack?

18. You have chosen to ignore posts from MeanE. Show MeanE's posts

Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/the-nhl-playoff-push-52-points-or-bust/article10440243/

Mirtle with his "magic number" article along the same lines.

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Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

In response to MeanE's comment:

Good article I don't Mirtle enough.

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Re: The Bruins have clinched playoff spot!

I'd forgotten about that site.  I usually don't go there until playoff scenarios start shaping up.

From what I recall, he basically runs a bunch of simulations of the remainder of the season where the winner for each game determined either by some weighted voodoo, or a 50-50 chance (you can toggle between the two on the left column).  Then all of the results are parsed for each team according to where they finish.  Right now, it looks like the only scenarios that resulted in the Bruins missing the playoffs involved them only earning 2 or fewer points the remainder of the season.

It gets more interesting down the line, because it helps keep potential playoff match-ups clear.

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